BAVARIAN CSU FLIRTS WITH BECOMING A CONSERVATIVE GREEN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000090 USDA FOR FAS/OCRA/PORTER, FAS/OCRA/JONES, FAS/OSTA/NENON STATE FOR OES/ENV STATE PLEASE PASS USTR FOR JMURPHY, MCLARKSON SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON PGOV EAGR ETRD TBIO GM SUBJECT: BAVARIAN CSU FLIRTS WITH BECOMING A CONSERVATIVE GREEN PARTY REF: BERLIN 447 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. In his first election test as leader of Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) and in a bid to win back the CSU base or to attract new voters, Minister President Horst Seehofer has reversed earlier positions and come out strictly opposed to genetically engineered organisms. Although he is now accused of populist opportunism for jumping late on the BAND wagon, he hopes this will improve CSU chances in the elections to the European Parliament on June 7 and German Bundestag on September 27, a success the CSU needs to survive as an influential regional party. It seems that the CSU leadership has calculated that losing support from the friends of the biotech in Bavaria is outweighed by possible gains from among emotional opponents to agricultural biotechnology. The political leadership ignores science arguments that support biotechnology. The CSU's focus right now is clearly on Bavaria and on Bavaria alone. Seehofer's team believes that rejection of genetically modified foodstuffs, as well as stem cell research and patents on animal breeding, reflect the will of the majority. These positions have put the party at odds with Bavaria's world-class research community, with the coalition partner Christian Democratic Union (CDU),and with American business. End Summary. -------------- CSU Loses Farmers' Support -------------- ¶2. Until recently, up to ninety percent of Bavarian farmers were loyal CSU supporters. Whether out of habit or conviction became less clear in the last years, we have been told repeatedly. This changed in the 2008 state elections, where 50 percent of them deserted to the Independents led by Hubert Aiwanger, himself a farmer. A recent poll by Infratest of 500 farmers revealed that the CSU could further lose its farming base, with only 23 percent of farmers polled saying they would vote for the CSU in upcoming elections. Almost as many would vote for the Independents. Analysts agree that these losses cannot be attributed to the early CSU support for green technology but rather to a long-growing sense that the old CSU has run its course. Farmers are also angry about the very low wholesale price of milk, for which the CSU may also be blamed. -------------- -------------- Agriculture Minister Aigner Caught in the Crossfire -------------- -------------- ¶3. Aigner, one of the new young CSU faces, has flip-flopped over gene technology issues as the election campaign heats up. She succumbed to Seehofer's political pressure and on April 14 banned the sowing of MON810, Monsanto's genetically engineered corn (a move since challenged by Monsanto in court, reftel). She was quoted as saying the decision "gave her a stomach ache," and this may be because she is a former Eurocopter engineer who understands the scientific approach better than the populist one. Aigner said the decision was not "against green technology in general," but CSU party colleague and Bavarian Environment Minister, Markus Soeder, has, like Seehofer, urged prohibitions on all genetically modified plants. Aigner also recently opposed a European patent application for a test to check pigs for a gene that makes them produce more meat. Taking a different tack on April 27, Aigner resisted party pressure and permitted limited trials of the "Amflora" potato developed by BASF. She said she did so after speaking with the experts and business people. Seehofer "accepted" Aigner's decision but Soeder expressed his disappointment, commenting that this sent the wrong signal. -------------- - Can Bavaria be a Zone Free of Gene Technology? -------------- - ¶4. Some of the most rabid opponents to GMOs in Bavaria are farmers in the Franconia region, near Wurzburg, where approved field trials are ongoing. Another problem is the Rosenheim area, close to Aigner's own constituency, at the center of the CSU's Upper Bavarian heartland. Here, an alliance by the name of "Civil Courage" has focused on the fight against GMOs, attracting an ever growing number MUNICH 00000090 002 OF 002 of determined supporters, reportedly 31,000 so far. The alliance has been able to mobilize traditional CSU voters, as they can be found in folklore groups ("Trachtenvereine"),shooting clubs, and Catholic communities, all of which emphasize the "integrity of creation." Commentators note that the CSU is coming "late to the party" and may not win many points by adopting the anti-technology approach now. It also might not help them with the CDU. Federal Research Minister Annette Schavan (CDU) openly supports "green technology." At a recent hearing on plant biotechnology, parliamentarians of the CDU and FDP adamantly opposed the ban of MON810 and requested political support for the technology. However, Chancellor Merkel has not taken position on this topic. -------------- -------------- Scientists Fret over Bavaria's Lost Opportunities -------------- -------------- ¶5. Bavaria may be the "high tech Mecca," according to Bill Gates, but there has been little public backlash against the CSU's anti-GMO positioning. Leaders such as Science Minister Heubisch (FDP) or Munich Technical University President Wolfgang Herrmann have warned recently that "Bavaria could voluntarily forego a great chance to excel in a field where it was steadily building world-class expertise." Other political parties long opposed to genetic engineering have accused the CSU of populist opportunism in a hard election year. The SPD, the Greens and the Independents support a total ban of GMOs in Germany. The chairman of the Independent Voters, Hubert Aiwanger, welcomed Aigner's ban of MON810 as "overdue" and called for halting field trials. The newly-elected chairperson of the Bavarian Young Socialists, Marietta Eder (SPD), who comes from Lower Franconia where most of the field trials are, adamantly rejects "green gene technology." Even the Bavarian FDP welcomed the ban, concluding that "politics had to take the concerns of the people seriously." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The CSU is looking for traction by attacking genetic engineering, a reversal from earlier positions. They are coming late to the issue, so there is a question whether the CSU can hold on to or win new voters by doing something that other major parties already can claim. Our CSU contacts have privately confirmed that Seehofer's fierce anti-GMO stance is coming from apocalyptic fears of an election disaster on June 7, which in the worst case could lead to the CSU falling out of the European Parliament and to his being discredited as CSU leader. With the Independents taking part in the EU elections, disenchanted farmers have a strong alternative to the CSU. This, combined with an election falling during a holiday and low voter interest, could make it hard for the CSU to reach the five percent Germany-wide threshold it needs to get into the EU Parliament. CSU contacts told us that despite some misgivings about its new course, the CSU feels it has no other choice but to do what the presumed majority of the people want, be it a clear rejection of GMOs, of nuclear power (which the CSU resists but carefully avoids to speak out on at this point),or stem cell research that alienates its Catholic followers. ¶7. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with Embassy Berlin and with the Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS). ¶8. (U) Track Munich reporting at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. TRAUB