GERMANY/MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: SCENE SETTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MUNICH 000307 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CE; DEPT PASS SENATORS KERRY, MCCAIN, LIEBERMAN, LUGAR; DEFENSE FOR OSD/POLICY - RDOTSON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL MARR NATO EUN PARM PGOV ASEC RS AF ZL GM SUBJECT: GERMANY/MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: SCENE SETTER FOR THE FEBRUARY 5 - 7, 2010 CONFERENCE SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) This is an action request. Please see paragraph ¶13. The 46th annual Munich Security Conference (MSC) runs from Friday afternoon, February 5, 2010 to mid-day Sunday, February 7, 2010, at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich. The draft agenda, which follows at paragraph 9 (NOTE: please protect, subject to change) promises discussions on resource security, European security, arms control and the NPT, prospects for Middle East peace, and the future of NATO. The annual Munich Security Conference is famous for its informal atmosphere, unofficial character, and high-level participants from government, the military, the diplomatic corps, the media and academia in over 45 countries and five international organizations. More than 70 heads of state or government and foreign and defense ministers normally attend. Nevertheless, the MSC is not a Summit. An informal and exclusive setting, it promotes lively debate and dialogue and creates rich opportunities for bilateral consultations at any time on the margins. The organizers have invited a range of USG leaders, including Vice President Biden, Secretaries Clinton, Gates, and Chu, as well as Senators McCain, Lieberman, Lugar and Kerry, among others. End Summary. The US has a Special Relationship to the MSC -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The German MSC organizers, now chaired by Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, acknowledge repeatedly the special US-German relationship at this conference and they will maintain it even as the MSC agenda broadens. Since the beginning -- 46 years ago -- the German hosts have worked closely with the United States as a partner in producing the conference. Seeing us as the "first delegation among equals," they have ensured us prime speaking slots, ample seats in the Plenary hall, and accommodation of special requests. In exchange, subject to the guest list drawn up by the organizers, the United States has always proven its importance by sending a high-level delegation, composed of Cabinet officers, prominent politicians, senior diplomats, and military leaders, as well as academics, media representatives, and private Americans representing themselves or non-governmental organizations. Ambassador Ischinger, former German Ambassador to Washington and London, believes that Senators McCain and Lieberman will organize a CODEL in 2010 as they have in past years. The MSC has invited UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon; NATO Secretary General Rasmussen has already accepted. Chancellor Merkel will participate, joined by leaders from the European Union and from other regions. The MSC believes Russia's delegation could be the prelude to President Medvedev's coming in 2011. The organizers expect high-level USG speakers will address the MSC at appropriate, prominent places in the program. These speaking opportunities will emerge in bilateral discussions as the conference plans mature. (NOTE: Ambassador Ischinger bio: https://www.intelink.gov/diplopedia/ index.pthp?title=Category:Germany Biography.) The Traditional Conference Rejuvenates -------------- ¶3. (SBU) US Invitees: In addition to official representatives of the Administration and Congress, the MSC regularly invites other influential Americans. Private participating Americans, such as former Secretaries of State Kissinger and Albright, former National Security Advisors, and former members of Congress can be affiliated with the CODEL or USDEL, making this event unique MUNICH 00000307 002 OF 004 in many respects. Other delegations are similarly rich with notable participants in the security and foreign policy fields. Though the conference itself is closed to press, there is a rich media presence reporting from the margins. ¶4. (SBU) To stimulate fresh thinking and with an eye to the future, Ambassador Ischinger continues work begun last year on rejuvenating the MSC while retaining its exclusive, informal character. He is considering how to shake up the roster of habitual participants somewhat by including new faces and more younger leaders from a wider variety of backgrounds while still including the most important security policy leaders who have come for years. We understand that his approach has already resulted in some disappointment on the part of former participants who have not been invited this year. He is also widening the focus from transatlantic and European security issues to include other global issues affecting international peace and stability, such as energy. He has secured financial support from Linde and BMW and seeks other corporate sponsors. Finally, to broaden the exposure of the MSC to the fresh ideas, he will continue with the Young Leaders Roundtable on Security Policy that will convene a day earlier, on February 4, and run through the MSC. ¶5. (U) Bilateral Consultations for USG Principals: The MSC presents many opportunities for bilateral consultations between members of the USDEL and members of other delegations. ConGen Munich will make appropriate logistical arrangements to facilitate these meetings, including opportunities for social networking and internet presences, as appropriate. ¶6. (SBU) SecDef Cocktail Reception: Mission Germany recalls the successful cocktail reception hosted in the past by the Secretary of Defense for Members of the German Bundestag (Parliament) and suggests repeating it this year, if time permits, and considering adding other selected guests, as appropriate. ¶7. (SBU) High-Level Meeting with the Bavarian CSU: The MSC organizers and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) political party are already planning a repeat of the popular meeting between CSU representatives and senior members of the US Delegation on the Friday morning, before the official opening of the conference. The CSU is a member of the Federal coalition government. This has become a sold-out event since first instituted in 2006. Defense Minister General Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, of the CSU, has been invited to lead the discussion. (Zu Guttenberg's unclassified bio: http://intelink.gov/diplopedia/ index.php?title=Karl Theodor Freiherr zu Guttenberg) High-Level Invitees from Other Countries -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In addition to German Chancellor Merkel, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle and Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg could be expected to lead the German delegation. The MSC organizers (please protect) believe that the Russian Federation is signaling that President Medvedev will come next year, in 2011, in the run-up to the Russian presidential elections, and that this year the Russian delegation would be led by a prominent member of the government. Russian PM Putin has not been invited. Afghan Foreign Minister Spanta is invited. Georgian President Saakashvili has not been invited. Iranian participation is not yet clear. MUNICH 00000307 003 OF 004 Schedule and Notional Topics of Sessions -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Here is the notional schedule with proposed topics of discussion. CAVEAT: The MSC organizers have told us that this notional schedule is subject to change and should not/not be disseminated outside the USG. PLEASE PROTECT. Thursday, February 4 -------------- Pre-conference event: Young Leaders Roundtable (YLR) on Security Policy. A prominent US speaker will be invited to address the YLR on Thursday or Friday morning. In 2009, USNATO Ambassador Volker was the speaker. Friday, February 5 -------------- Morning: Young Leaders Roundtable on Security Policy continues. 11:30 - 13:30 (approx.): USDEL Roundtable Discussion with the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU),including German Defense Minister zu Guttenberg (invited). 15:30 - 18:30: Opening of the Conference. Plenary Session of MSC. "Resource Security and Shifting Global Power." Opening statement by Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the MSC. Keynote Statement. Speaker TBD. Reactions from a panel and/or the audience follow. 19:00 - 22:00: Reception followed by Dinner, hosted by the Mayor of the City of Munich, Christian Ude, at the Old City Hall ("Altes Rathaus,") downtown Munich. (NOTE: this is a return to past practice by the city and an important signal of a fresh start of the city's relationship with the MSC which soured during the Iraq war.) Saturday, February 6 -------------- 9:00 - 13:00: Plenary Session. "The Future of European and Global Security." This Session will feature set speeches by panelists followed by discussion. 13:00 - 15:00 Lunch hosted by the MSC organizers. 15:00 - 16:30: Panel Discussion One: "The Future of Arms Control and the NPT: Is Zero Possible?" 17:00 - 18:30 Panel Discussion Two: "Regional Security in the Middle East: Is Peace at Hand?" 20:00: Dinner hosted by the State of Bavaria and Bavarian Minister President Horst Seehofer. (Seehofer bio: https://www.intelink.gov/diplopedia/ index.pthp?title=Category:Germany Biography). Sunday, February 7 -------------- 9:00 - 13:15: Plenary Session: The Future of NATO: Its Strategy and its Missions. Speeches, panel discussions. Closing Statement by Chairman Ischinger. 13:30 Informal Closing Buffet lunch (optional). MUNICH 00000307 004 OF 004 ¶10. (SBU) Conference Facilities The MSC will again use the Bayerischer Hof Hotel as its headquarters and main conference venue. Seating, and therefore invitations to participants in the conference, will be extremely limited again this year as the conference organizers intend to maintain the intimate character of the MSC and they must also respect the size limits of the venue. There are 300 seats for participants this year, down from ¶350. (Note: The MSC will not use public conference rooms for meetings outside the hotel as it did last year but will use that space to house the press.) Conference organizers consult closely with the Bavarian and German authorities on security arrangements and work closely with the RSO and Consulate staff. ¶11. (U) Munich Young Leaders Round Table on Security Policy (YLR),February 4 - 7: For a pre-conference event, the MSC has again invited 25 young leaders (from Germany, NATO member states, Partnership for Peace Member States, Member States in the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative) to come to Munich one day earlier for a program and debate forum designed especially for them. On the morning of February 5, the MSC hopes that a high-level member or members from the US Delegation will address the Young Leaders before the formal opening of the MSC that afternoon. The Young Leaders then join the MSC as Observers after their own program ends. The Koerber Foundation is organizing the YLR (Official link to the Young Leaders Roundtable: www.koerber-Stiftung.de/en/international-affa irs/ munich-young-leaders.html). ¶12. (U) Planning Ahead for Funding for MSC costs: Supporting a large, complex conference like the MSC with many high-level USDEL members comes with unique costs for the USG. Fund cites for travelers and normal program funds cover most of the additional costs. However, Mission Germany wishes to draw the attention of the Department that there will be new costs this year for bilateral consultation and delegation control rooms. In the past, the MSC provided these free of charge, but no longer. This year, these rooms will cost approximately USD 6000 (five converted hotel rooms for three nights at USD 400 per night). ¶13. (U) Action request: Mission Germany strongly favors early decisions on participation by a strong US Delegation lead by senior Administration and Congressional officials. We note that the MSC falls one week after the London Afghanistan conference and could be a prime venue for follow up and nailing down support. ¶14. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this cable with Embassy Berlin. TRIBBLE