GERMAN ELECTIONS: BAVARIA WINS BIG INFLUENCE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000273 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CE, DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/ERA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN GM SUBJECT: GERMAN ELECTIONS: BAVARIA WINS BIG INFLUENCE IN THE NEW GERMAN GOVERNMENT REF: BERLIN 1340 Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL CONRAD TRIBBLE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D ) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria has celebrated the outcome of the federal coalition negotiations, which awarded the party with three ministries and several state secretary positions. The outcome appears to have reinvigorated Horst Seehofer, Bavarian Minister President and head of the CSU, recovering from a bout with the flu and worse-than-expected results in the September 27 national elections. Singling out newly sworn-in Defense Minister zu Guttenberg for praise, Seehofer expects him to compete successfully for world attention with new Foreign Minister and FDP chairman Westerwelle. Seehofer has signaled that he expects to be working with the FDP for a long time. End Summary. CSU Thrilled with Coalition Negotiations Results -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) "We could not be more satisfied with the outcome," Michael Hohenberger, a senior State Chancery contact told us October 28, adding that "even with a better election result the CSU could hardly have emerged stronger in the new cabinet." Although some Bavarian observers have deplored the fact that the CSU lost ministerial posts in financial and economic affairs at the Federal level, all agree that having Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg as Defense Minister is a very positive development. A CSU party senior advisor, Christian Kattner, told us privately on the same day that he could "understand Chancellor Merkel's point in giving the Finance Ministry at this difficult time to an experienced man like (former Interior Minister) Wolfgang Schaeuble (Christian Democratic Union ) CDU) rather than to a young man at the beginning of his political career." ¶3. (C) Kattner insisted that the CSU had left its mark with regard to substance. M-P Seehofer had promised tax cuts, which are now in the works, and aid measures for farmers, for which he obtained an agreement on public aid amounting to 700 million Euros. The CDU/CSU stood united in rejecting FDP demands they considered too business friendly at the expense of social justice concerns, he said. Bavarian Justice Minister Merk, who at the beginning of the coalition negotiations expressed concerns about FDP "weaknesses" on internal security and counterterrorism, told the CG October 27 that "she was very comfortable with the results." Strong CSU Bavarian Line-Up in Berlin -------------- ¶4. (SBU) As for the Cabinet, in addition to zu Guttenberg at Defense, there is Peter Ramsauer heading the Transportation Ministry, where he will have national influence and a huge budget. Ilse Aigner (CSU) remains Minister of Agriculture. Five of the the parliamentarian State Secretaries are Bavarian, four from the CSU r and one from the FDP. This gives the CSU and Bavaria generally important influence at the sub-Cabinet level and sets up influential and direct Bavarian connections between the Bundestag and Cabinet. In the Defense Ministry, well-respected Christian Schmidt retained his position, as did Gerd Mueller in Agriculture. Hartmut Koschyk moves to the Finance Ministry, providing the CSU with important direct influence with Minister Schaeuble. The 35-year old Andreas Scheuer from Passau will assist Peter Ramsauer at the Transportation Ministry. The fifth Bavarian is Max Stadler (FDP),who will support Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger (FDP) at the Justice Ministry. A well-respected lawyer from Passau, Stadler is an excellent choice and a real legal expert with American experience as a 1993 International Visitor Program alumnus. Seehofer Expects Long-Term Cooperation with FDP -------------- -- ¶5. (SBU) At the CSU party convention on October 26, where the coalition agreement was approved, MP Seehofer made clear that the CSU,s main rival will now be the FDP, "which no longer is a small party but clearly intends to become a people,s party," he said, predicting "they will be targeting the same voters as the CSU." The CSU, he added, will have to act as the guardian of the little people "to ensure that MUNICH 00000273 002 OF 002 social justice prevails." Later, upon signing the coalition agreement in Berlin, Seehofer indicated that he intends to remain in the CSU leadership. Noting that this was the second time he had signed an agreement with the FDP, following the agreement in Bavaria one year earlier, he said he might be able to do the same again for the third and fourth time in 2013. The media jumped on this statement since it insinuated that Seehofer had given up hope of the CSU regaining its absolute majority in the 2013 Bavarian state elections. "This statement might come back to haunt him," one journalist commented. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Bavarian leaders are strong at home and in Berlin. Contrary to media speculation, Horst Seehofer remains uncontested as CSU chairman and Bavarian Minister-President. Our contacts in the party, State Chancery and CSU caucus unanimously rejected speculation about an imminent revolt against his leadership, although several acknowledge there will be discussions of a possible change in 2011 in preparation for the next Bavarian election in 2013. In the capital, Defense Minister zu Guttenberg will be a serious competitor to Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle on the diplomatic parquet. In foreign and security affairs, zu Guttenberg is better connected in Washington, fluent in English, and more experienced in the key issues. Moreover, his good relations with the USG, which started in Bavaria, extend beyond the Department of State to the Department of Defense and Congress, notably through the vehicle of the annual Munich Security Conference (next iteration February 5-7, 2010),where he is a regular and prominent organizer and participant. TRIBBLE