MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: FOCUS ON RUSSIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000021

WHITE HOUSE FOR OVP
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO GM
SUBJECT: MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: FOCUS ON RUSSIA

REF: A) MUNICH 19 B) MUNICH 20


1. (U) SUMMARY. Participants wondered until the last moment which
Russian Federation official would speak for Russia (there was
speculation that Prime Minister Putin would appear) and what he would
bring to the podium at this year's Munich Security Conference (MSC),
February 6-8. It was Russian Head of Delegation First Deputy Prime
Minister Ivanov who offered a relatively constructive tone to the
proceedings. Although outweighed by the debate surrounding
Afghanistan and Pakistan, discussion of Russian issues ranged from
missile defense (MD) to the gas dispute to the future of security
structures in Europe. During his speech, Ivanov repeated Russia's
opposition to U.S. "unilateral" solutions on MD. On the recent gas
crisis, senior EU politicians refused to accept the Russian line that
it was "just a gas dispute." When the discussion turned to the
future of European security, French President Sarkozy recommended
that Ukraine and Georgia follow European standards and rules if they
wanted to join NATO and the EU. Many speakers expressed cautious
readiness to explore Russian President Medvedev's proposal for a new
European security architecture, but warned that the proposal was "too
vague," and that an attempt to undermine NATO and the transatlantic
relationship would fail. (Other MSC issues reported REFTELS AND
SEPTELS.) END SUMMARY.

THE ISKANDER CARD
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2. (U) European participants considered how to include Russia in MD
and expressed their relief that the Russians would not deploy
Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad. Specifically, German Foreign
Minister Steinmeier expressed satisfaction with Russia's decision but
also the hope that the United States and Russia find common ground on
missile defense: "If this is about a common threat, then common
answers must be possible." Ivanov explained that Medvedev's
announcement not to deploy Iskander is perfectly in line with
Medvedev's November announcement, which he summarized as "no MD, no
Iskander." Czech Deputy Prime Minister Vondra rejected the idea that
Russia should have such a veto power over MD, but he agreed that
Russia should be invited to cooperate in the program. Henry
Kissinger eloquently called for the U.S. and Russia to cooperate
against threats from proliferating countries. Specifically, he
called the Russian proposal for a join missile defense toward the
Middle East to be a "creative political and strategic answer to a
common problem."


3. (U) Ivanov took the stage to reaffirm Russia's opposition to a
"unilateral" U.S. missile shield in Europe. Moreover, he argued that
the deployment of MD directly affects regional and international
security. In a veiled threat, Ivanov said that tensions would
increase if the U.S. fielded a "unilateral" missile defense in a
European site "without due respect to the interests of strategic
stability of other parties involved."

THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE GAS CRISIS
--------------


4. (U) Polish Prime Minister Tusk and EU High Representative Solana
concluded that the gas dispute was not only about business and had
broader implications. Tusk added that the crisis was a purposeful
Russian test of European solidarity. Tusk said that solidarity
during "real, hard conflicts" might be extremely limited because
solidarity was so weak during the gas crisis.


5. (U) The discussion also focused on the economic ramifications of
the crisis. Czech Deputy Prime Minister Vondra recommended that
Europe must diversify its gas supplies by having as many pipelines as
possible, including Northstream, Southstream, and Nabucco.
Chancellor Merkel highlighted the EU plan to interlink the
electricity and gas networks in Europe to make individual European
member states less vulnerable to future gas crises. President
Sarkozy recommended that Russia and the EU should be able to
cooperate on the energy issue if Europe provides the technology and
Russia delivers energy in return. He added that Russia cannot
afford to upset its customers. Ukrainian Prime Minister Tymoshenko
called for a unified EU energy policy and said Russia was to blame
for the crisis while Ukraine was part of the solution. She
emphasized multiple times that Ukraine is a reliable partner and that
alternative routes such as Northstream and Nabucco are "wrong."

THE FUTURE OF SECURITY IN EUROPE
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MUNICH 00000021 002 OF 002




6. (U) Some speakers expressed hesitation or confusion regarding
Medvedev's proposal for a new European security architecture.
President Sarkzoy suggested taking Medvedev by his word in order to
find out what is actually behind the offer and whether these were
just vague "Sunday speeches." Prime Minister Tusk said he was
willing to learn more about the proposal, especially regarding
conflict prevention. Chancellor Merkel was open to exploring
Russia's proposal but cautioned that a treaty would be too
cumbersome. EU High Representative Solana emphasized that the
principles of Helsinki are not negotiable and they only can be added
to and not replaced.


7. (U) On relations between NATO and Russia, Foreign Minister
Steinmeier recommended that a "group of eminent persons" develop
recommendations for the future of NATO. Merkel said that Russia must
overcome its false perception that NATO is a cold war institution.
Sarkozy said that he does not fear a Russian military threat to NATO
because of Russia is forced to concentrate on its own domestic
troubles and conflicts.

NELSON