MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE OVERVIEW (FEBRUARY 6-8,

UNCLAS MUNICH 000019 WHITE HOUSE FOR OVP H FOR CODEL MCCAIN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO GM SUBJECT: MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE OVERVIEW (FEBRUARY 6-8, 2009) SUMMARY AND BACKGROUND -------------- ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The mood at the end of the 45th Munich Security Conference (MSC) was upbeat, welcoming that the U.S. is "back at the table." Vice President Biden took the stage to extended, warm applause. Reflecting the content and tone of President Obama's inauguration speech, the Vice President told the prominent international audience that the U.S. is resuming its leadership role in consultation and dialogue with its partners, from whom we expect a firmer consensus in return. The USG Delegation was uniquely high level, including in addition to the Vice President: National Security Advisor Jones; Special Representative Holbrooke; Deputy Secretary Steinberg; Assistant Secretary Fried; and six Flag Officers, including Generals Petraeus and Craddock. The CODEL included Representatives Tauscher, Harman, and Sanchez (the Senators, including Kerry, McCain, and Lieberman, had to cancel because work on the stimulus package was not completed). In addition to the extraordinary interest in the new U.S. administration, the participants, including French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel, bore down on the future of NATO and the international community in Afghanistan and on the Iranian nuclear issue. The discussions were sober in this regard, recognizing the significant challenges ahead. The Vice President and USDEL's engagement have started changing the dynamic with the Germans. At the end, a local marketing expert summed up the Conference and its mood and hopes by calling it "Munich Spring." Additional information on many of these topics will be delivered SEPTEL. End Summary. ¶2. (U) BACKGROUND: The MSC has become a very high-profile event. Vice President Biden, in his first overseas trip, led the highest-ranking U.S. delegation to the conference in sixteen years. The MSC's international participants, including more than 70 heads of state or government, and foreign and defense ministers, was the most illustrious line-up in the Conference's long history. With the April 3-4 NATO Summit in Strasbourg and Kehl (Germany) only two months away, there was a keen interest in the U.S. vision for the Transatlantic Alliance. End Background. THE VICE PRESIDENT SETS "NEW TONE" IN SPEECH AT CONFERENCE -------------- ¶3. (U) Vice President Biden's much-anticipated speech was widely seen as setting a "new tone" with America's relations around the world. Noting that the U.S. would be asking more of its partners, the Vice President promised that the Obama Administration would "work cooperatively with nations around the world" to counter common extremist and terrorist threats. The Vice President also noted the Administration's review of our Iran policy and how the U.S. and our partners can work better together to solve problems in Afghanistan and the Middle East. On Russia, the Vice President lamented the "dangerous drift in relations" and noted that the time had come "to press the reset button and to revisit the many areas where we can and should work together." Attendees at the conference remarked that the Vice President's speech demonstrated that the new U.S. government seeks to renew its partnership with Europeans, and that this includes "Europeans being called on to do more" to assist in global security issues. The Vice President's speech can be found in its entirety at http://germany.usembassy.gov/events/2009/ feb-biden-security/ ARMS CONTROL -------------- ¶4. (U) German Foreign Minister Steinmeier used the MSC as a platform to reaffirm his demands not only to revive arms control as such, but also to emphasize that a "zero solution" on nuclear weapons is possible. The NPT, CFE, INF and ABM treaties were all discussed during the Arms Control panel. While most conference participants and panelists agreed that the Obama Administration represented an opportunity to revive arms control and non-proliferation efforts, there were only few concrete proposals of what might be undertaken. IAEA Director General ElBaradei, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ali Larijani, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov and Indian National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan all participated in a panel discussion. U.S. Representative Ellen Tauscher delivered the concluding Statement, in which she called for dialogue between the U.S. and Iran and a thoughtful approach to missile defense. IRAN -------------- ¶5. (U) Iran: Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ali Larijani sought to raise the bar for direct talks with the United States by repeatedly emphasizing that the West -- and the U.S. in particular -- has been applying a double standard towards Iran since the Iranian revolution. He argued that it is up to the Obama Administration to build new bridges but then he antagonized his audience by questioning the Holocaust. ¶6. (U) Observers of the MSC were disappointed by Larijani's appearance. Even though some participants noted an understanding that Larijani does not want to undermine his possible presidential candidacy -- which still needs to be approved by the Iranian Council of Guardians -- the general impression was that Larijani's confrontational speech at the MSC represented a missed opportunity on the Iranian side. However, at the tail end of his comments, Larijani did note openness to regional discussions, which some participants felt may be a signal indicating future dialogue. AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶7. (U) President Karzai attempted to paint a positive picture of the development in Afghanistan, an assessment which notably fell flat among conference participants. Karzai asked for patience on the issues of police training, reconstruction, corruption, and drug production. He noted that many of these issues have been addressed and one now needed to wait for the results to materialize. Karzai also emphasized that the reconstruction of Afghanistan was a joint effort by the international community and the Afghan people, while highlighting the need for additional coordination. The dominant opinion was that a more regional approach needs to be taken with a focus on Afghanistan. RUSSIA -------------- ¶8. (U) Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov repeated Russia's opposition to unilateral decisions on Missile Defense. Senior politicians from the EU rejected the Russian notion that the gas dispute was just a business dispute. French President Sarkozy noted that Ukraine and Georgia must meet European standards and follow European rules if they want to join NATO and the EU. Most conference participants referred to Medvedev's European security proposal as "too vague" and requiring additional details. Chancellor Merkel stated clearly that any proposal for a new European security architecture that undermined NATO was unacceptable and would fail. Panelist, including US General Petraeus, Canadian DefMin MacKay, British DefMin Hutton, and Special Representative Holbrooke, spoke soberly and in detail about the challenges NATO faces there. NATO REFORM / STRATEGIC CONCEPT -------------- ¶9. (U) German FM Steinmeier called for a "new Harmel Report" to be crafted by a "group of eminent persons" to make recommendations for NATO reforms. Many speakers (among them Chancellor Merkel) agreed that NATO needs a new strategic concept that reflects the changes of the post 9/11 world, such as asymmetric threats, terrorism and the new nature of missions such as ISAF. According to Merkel, the new strategic concept should include the notion that international conflicts cannot be resolved by one single country alone. There was broad support for the "comprehensive approach" as an element of a new strategic concept. ¶10. (U) German DefMin Jung provided a detailed outline of German recommendations. This included a new strategic culture for coming to consensus among all 28 NATO allies (including Croatia and Albania) about the role and functioning of the Alliance; a renewal of what has proven useful to the Alliance (security, consensus, deterrence, defense, crisis management); a balance between collective defense and crisis management; an open door policy to allow new members in if they make the Alliance more effective; the extension of a strategic partnership with Russia; making the "comprehensive approach" a core competency; improved capabilities; and enhanced cooperation between NATO and the EU. NATO-EU -------------- ¶11. (U) Merkel criticized Turkey and Cyprus for obstructing improvements to the NATO-EU relationship. President Sarkozy emphasized his friendship with the United States and emphasized that ESDP is a way to strengthen rather than weaken NATO. He also urged Europeans to step up their defense efforts. He rhetorically asked whether Europe wants to "live in peace" or whether it wants "to be left in peace." He explained that the latter strategy only works for a few years and leaves no option in the time of crisis. MISCELLANEOUS -------------- ¶12. (U) Kissinger: Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was awarded the newly established Ewald von Kleist Award for his "significant contribution to global peace and conflict resolution." ¶13. (U) Merkel-Sarkozy: Despite an agreement to announce changes to the Franco-German brigade at a separate press conference on the sidelines of the MSC, President Sarkozy, speaking after Chancellor Merkel, snubbed Merkel by announcing from the podium that Germany will station a battalion in France. This will be the first time since the end of the World War II that Germany will have troops stationed in France. ¶14. (U) Guantanamo: Nearly all conference participants welcomed the Obama Administration's decision to shut down Guantanamo. Vice President Biden's announcement that America will ask for help during the closure of Guantanamo remained unanswered in the open discussion. NELSON