CSU DEMONSTRATES INDEPENDENCE AT PARTY CONVENTION, BUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000187 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV EUN GM SUBJECT: CSU DEMONSTRATES INDEPENDENCE AT PARTY CONVENTION, BUT MAINTAINS LINKS TO MERKEL'S CDU -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Christian Social Union (CSU) celebrated the party's improving political fortunes at its July 17-18 party convention along with the 55th birthday of Chancellor Merkel (CDU),who spoke at the event. Bavarian Minister President Horst Seehofer promised Merkel the CSU's full support in the fall Bundestag election campaign. This re-energized CSU could prove to be a demanding partner, having adopted an election platform that differs from that of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU),expressing skepticism about the EU's centralizing tendencies and calling for the German parliament to have a greater say on important EU issues. The CSU's rebellious policies -- most recently over the Lisbon treaty ratification and earlier regarding the timing of tax cuts -- are widely viewed as the party's tried and true strategy for profiling itself before an election, thereby garnering more support. This is something the CDU understands and generally supports. While benefiting from this strategy, the party is still working to get its act together internally. This was reflected in the fact that other party grandees, including Seehofer, had to content themselves with less than the traditional 90-percent show of support from the party. End summary. Midlife Crisis Past for the Renewed CSU -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The CSU is on an upward trajectory as the recent EU elections and public opinion polls have shown, and in part because of the contributions of the nationally-popular Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, whom the party elected to the CSU Board virtually by acclamation. Political observers present at the CSU party convention in Nuremburg observed a distinctly different atmosphere compared to during the July 2008 CSU convention, when the buzz was about the CSU's loss of influence in federal politics. This time, the CSU demonstrated confidence, having done surprisingly well in EU Parliamentary elections this past spring by winning 48 percent of the vote. Party Chair Seehofer demonstrated that he feels validated in the political renewal course he chose, in part based on populist, Bavarian "nationalist" themes. EU Position Not Debated -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Part of its nationalist theme is reflected in the CSU election platform, which calls for compulsory consultations by the federal government with the Bundestag and Bundesrat before taking action in the EU Ministerial Council. The recent verdict by the National Constitutional Court on the Lisbon treaty has given play to the CSU's alleged Euro-skepticism. The CSU is calling for state parliaments to be involved in EU legislation affecting state interests. The CSU further reiterated its call for public referenda on essential EU questions, such as EU expansion. (Note: The CSU opposes Iceland's EU membership bid.) Seehofer himself reiterated the CSU's insistence that the national and state parliaments play a greater role in EU issues. At the same time, however, he assured Chancellor Merkel that he did not want the German government to be limited in its ability to act. "We will find a sensible compromise," he promised. There was no debate about EU politics at the convention. ¶4. (SBU) A CSU insider and advisor on foreign policy and EU matters, told us on July 20 that the CDU was not amused about the CSU's EU stance, which in the sister party's eyes would marginalize the role of the national government. The CSU has worked out a 14-point program on strengthening the rights of the German parliament in EU matters. This is based on a bill that the CDU/CSU caucus brought to the floor in January, 2005, at which time it was voted down by the then governing SPD/Greens government. This, the insider felt, was a good foundation for a CDU/CSU compromise. A series of internal CDU/CSU meetings on this issue is scheduled within the next two months. We also understand from political contacts that the CDU and CSU are not concerned that their differences over EU-politics will affect their show of unity before the September 27 elections. CDU politicos view CSU's divergent policies as profiling tactics to garner more support in the run-up to the elections. The CSU and the New Generation Seek Their Footing -------------- -------------- ¶5. Seehofer has also tried to boost the CSU by injecting it with younger members. The party is still in the process of a fundamental reshuffle based on Seehofer's efforts, by which many influential politicians over 60 years old have lost their positions to younger members of the cadre. Dissatisfaction in the ranks with this MUNICH 00000187 002 OF 002 approach was reflected in the elections to the CSU Board, where anything less than 90 percent is considered a criticism. Seehofer himself obtained "only" 88 percent of the vote re-electing him as CSU chairman, two percent less than he received in October, 2008. None of his four party deputies, among them Peter Ramsauer, top candidate for the Bundestag election, obtained a real vote of confidence. The shining exception was the CSU's new national star, Federal Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, who got 95 percent of the vote. People in Bavaria still talk approvingly about zu Guttenberg's tough stance during the Opel bankruptcy negotiations this past spring, which many credit with improving significantly the CSU results in the EU Parliamentary elections that took place shortly thereafter. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The analytical Merkel and the populist Seehofer will probably never be close friends, but they know that they depend on each other and each other's success to do well in the Bundestag elections. Chancellor Merkel did little to support the CSU before the disastrous state elections in September 2008, and there was discussion thereafter that the CSU was on the way out as a regional power and a partner for the CDU. Now the CSU is regaining power and Merkel has to take notice of her challenging and necessary partner. With his strong emphasis on an independent course, Seehofer has brought support back to his party. This may have caused some headaches in the CDU and perhaps risked alienating some CDU party veterans, but in the end, it benefitted the CSU and indirectly, also the CDU. Seehofer feels confirmed in his approach after the strong showing in the EU elections, although some of this success should be attributed to the success on the national stage of Karl-Theodore zu Guttenberg. ¶7. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with Embassy Berlin ¶8. (U) Track Munich reporting at the classified link - http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. HELLMAN