PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS IN INDIA BELIEVE BETTER TIMES AHEAD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000439 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EIND EINV ENRG ELTN IN SUBJECT: PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS IN INDIA BELIEVE BETTER TIMES AHEAD MUMBAI 00000439 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. SUMMARY: Fund managers at private equity (PE) firms are expressing renewed confidence in high-growth opportunities in India, after a long hiatus. While the market for private equity dried up from a high of $17.3 billion in FY2007 to $3 billion in year-to-date FY2009, PE investors report that deal activity has increased significantly in the last few months. Buoyed by rising capital markets and increased economic activity, Indian companies sense a recovery, and are more amendable to growth capital equity investments. PE fund managers note that investment challenges remain --- including a proposed capital gain tax - but feel that India offers a largely open investment field, with high potential rates of return. Moreover, the requirements of institutional investors will drive greater portfolio investment in India overall. We will continue to watch closely to see whether this new optimism is real or misplaced. END SUMMARY Optimism Returns to PE Investors -------------- ¶2. Despite a severe decline in private equity (PE) investments since 2007, fund managers have become optimistic that PE investments are on the rebound. At its height in FY2007, PE firms invested a total of $17.3 billion in India; investments declined to $10.7 billion in 2008, and only $3 billion year-to-date in 2009. (Note: Approximately 60 percent of all PE deals are in the real estate sector, and this decline clearly tracks the downturn in the real estate sector. End Note.) Nevertheless, many Mumbai-based PE fund managers believe that India offers immense opportunities for future investments, report a significant pick-up in deal activity, and express confidence that India is already at the forefront of the global recovery. Akhil Gupta, Managing Director of Blackstone, reported that in the six months up to the national elections in May 2009, they ceased pursuing any new deals due to political risk concerns, and tended to their portfolio. Since then, he's looked at more deals than he did in all of 2008, and feels confident that he will make a number of investments in the coming months. He also said the quality of deals is far better than those on offer in 2007. Several other fund managers echoed these sentiments, and indicated that the current numbers did not yet reflect the amount of activity currently taking place. ¶3. Part of the increase in investment over the past several years is because India has opened new avenues for foreign capital investment, says Aluri Rao, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley. Other than multi-brand retail, defense and a few other sectors where some equity caps or limits exist, investors can largely invest freely in most sectors. In addition, fund managers point out that because India is still considered riskier than developed markets, investments can claim a much higher internal rate of return (IRR). Darius Pandole, a partner at New Silk Route, an India-focused PE fund, claims that the average deal in India offers a 25-35 percent IRR, well above developed market returns. ¶4. Moreover, PE funds have put more emphasis on India due to institutional investor interest and global emerging markets potential despite the recent economic downturn. Rakesh Khanna, Managing Director of PE firm Warburg Pincus, said his company has a 10 percent investment exposure to India, making it the largest single-country investment after the United States. Comparatively, China only carries a 7-8 percent weighting in his portfolio. Khanna explained that while he had no specific requirement to invest in India or China, these two countries offered the most emerging market investment opportunities. In addition, according to Pandole, the market for "secondaries" has become important to Indian PE fund managers. As the global financial crisis hit institutional investors and hedge funds, many were not able to meet their financial commitments to PE funds, due to withdrawals and liquidity problems, or choose to limit PE or emerging markets risk. Now that PE funds are again looking to make investments, they need to ensure that investors are able to provide their committed funding, when opportunities arise. The buying and selling of these commitments is known as the "secondaries" market, and these exposures are often sold at steep discounts; in these cases, the new investors take over the previous investors' funding commitments, enabling the PE fund to maintain its momentum. Although such deals are commonplace in MUMBAI 00000439 002.2 OF 003 the U.S. and Europe, the practice is new for India-focused funds. Why the Optimism? -------------- ¶5. Much of the optimism stems from the recent rally in equity markets - the SENSEX, India's main stock index, has risen 73 percent since March - and the increase in overall economic activity in India. The vast majority of PE investments in India are growth capital injections, either as equity in a publicly-traded company, or private placements in unlisted firms. In India, almost all companies are controlled by families who are reluctant to cede management control to outside investors, but will shed some equity if the right relationship develops, at the right price; hostile takeovers or buyouts are non-existent. Rao estimates that 90 percent of private equity funds have bought minority rights in Indian companies. When Indian capital markets were depressed, few company owners wanted to sell equity at prices below what they believed they were worth. Even those firms who needed funds, explained Pandole, preferred to suffer a decline in business rather than sell at the current valuations. Moreover, PE funds were also cautious about the health of individual Indian companies, and preferred to wait until the recovery to see how these firms - as well as global economic conditions - had weathered the crisis. Challenges of Investing in India -------------- ¶6. According to PE fund managers, one of the biggest challenges faced by current and potential investors is the proposed new Direct Tax Code Bill of 2009. This bill will increase the capital gains tax to a uniform rate of 30 percent, dramatically increasing the tax burden on PE investments and reducing capital flow into India. (Note: Currently, the long term capital gain tax on listed securities is zero percent and unlisted securities is 20 percent. End Note.) Since most PE investments are made through equity markets, a 30 percent capital gains tax will make many of these investments unviable. In addition, PE players would no longer be able to take advantage of the beneficial treatment under different tax treaties and shall have to pay taxes as per the provisions of the new tax code. PE fund managers also expressed frustration that PE investments are classified as "short term" by regulators, and receive the same treatment as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) or hedge funds, instead of foreign direct investment (FDI). Since most of their investments are in the five to seven year range, PE fund managers believed they should be treated as long term investors. Pandole noted that "non-disclosure" agreements - where an investor evaluating a company prior to an investment would pledge to not mis-use proprietary information -- are not permitted under Indian capital market regulations. Therefore, a potential investor cannot look closely at the financials of an Indian company prior to an investment, without fear of being targeted under inside trading statutes. Pandole recommended that the main capital markets regulators, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) develop rules for using non-disclosure agreements so that investors can avoid making leaps of faith in determining the viability of an investee company. Power Sector Attractive, Some Infrastructure Sectors Are Not -------------- -------------- ¶7. Many PE firms are looking at the power sector as a potential source of growth because there are a large number of new projects in the pipeline. According to the research firm Venture Intelligence, investment in the power sector increased from $122 million in 2006 to $495 million in 2007, and to $902 million in 2008. This growth was due to continued capacity expansion plans and growing demand in the domestic market. However, investment in the power generation sector dropped 80 MUMBAI 00000439 003.2 OF 003 percent in 2009, to $157 million year-to-date. Despite this dismal figure, most PE firms appear to be confident investment growth will pick up in the energy sector. ¶8. PE firms are less confident about investments elsewhere in the infrastructure sector. For instance, Sreekumar Chatra, manager of Macquarie Capital's $500 million infrastructure fund (in partnership with State Bank of India),explained that most foreign investors are not able to participate in road projects, due to their low rates of return by international standards. Most road projects offer annual IRRs in the 14-16 percent range, while foreign investment funds require annual IRRs of 22-25 percent in order to meet investment return requirements, particularly institutional investors who support funds like Macquarie's. However, these kinds of projects are attractive to Indian construction companies with financing arms because they earn contractual fees on the construction, as well as returns on the investment. Foreign funds would like to participate in financing these projects, but could only do so if they acquire construction companies, or if IRRs were raised on the project. (Comment: Indian interlocutors, however, have suggested that foreign investors lower their return expectations to take advantage of the huge potential volume of investments in India. End Comment.) ¶9. Comment: In a series of recent conversations, the excitement and optimism among India-based PE fund managers was real and vibrant, especially after a long, dreary run over the last 18 months. Their enthusiasm is shared by many in the India-based business and investor community, as people smell the signs of a recovery. Many expect that the buoyant capital markets are indeed the harbingers of more years of high growth for India. While these fund managers alluded to a large numbers of deals in the making, the numbers still tell a different story; since 2007, data shows that the market for private equity investments largely dried up, reduced by 84 percent over the last two years. And should the new capital gains tax become law, PE funds will find the potential profitability of their investments quickly eroded. As the end of FY2009 approaches, we will see whether this optimism has been realized. End Comment. FOLMSBEE