BHARAT BALLOT 09: CONGRESS MAY REGAIN FOOTHOLD IN VIDARBHA,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MUMBAI 000168 SENSITIVE SIPDIS USDA PASS FAS/OCRA STATE PASS TO USTR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR ECON SOCI PGOV IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: CONGRESS MAY REGAIN FOOTHOLD IN VIDARBHA, DESPITE FARMER TROUBLES, NEGLECT, AND SUICIDES REF: MUMBAI 0153 MUMBAI 00000168 001.2 OF 005 ¶1. (U) Summary. The troubled rural region of Vidarbha in eastern Maharashtra went to the polls on April 16, and pundits and pollsters agree that the Congress will regain their foothold in the region, at the expense of candidates from the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena alliance. Located in the dead center of the country, the Vidarbha region has become known for the high prevalence of farmer suicides, brought on by indebtedness, years of poor rainfall, and neglect from state and national political leaders. Vidarbha's farmers are unorganized and lack political patrons, such as Sharad Pawar in western Maharashtra, to ensure that development funds and projects flow to the region. Congress's pro-agriculture policies may pay off, but farmers suffering from the failure of this year's soybean crop want more financial help from the national and state governments, and hold little hope for solutions from their elected officials. End Summary. Vidarbha Goes to the Polls -------------- ¶2. (U) On April 16, voters went to the polls in 10 constituencies in the eastern Maharashtra region known as Vidarbha. (Note: Voting took place in three other Maharashtra constituencies in the neighboring Marathwada region. End note.) With a population of 20.6 million people (2001 census), Vidarbha once had 11 seats, but lost one seat during the redistricting of constituencies that took into account population migration to urban centers. The lost Lok Sabha seat is currently occupied by a rebel Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MP who was expelled from the party for supporting the UPA coalition during the July 2008 no-confidence vote over the implementation of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative. ¶3. (SBU) The region had long been a Congress bastion, but in 2004, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won ten of the then-total eleven Parliamentary seats. The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance won only one seat, Nagpur, the region's only predominately urban seat. (Note: This runs counter to the traditional view that BJP is stronger in urban areas and Congress's strength is in rural areas. End note.) In the state assembly elections that followed in late 2004, however, the region voted overwhelmingly for the Congress-NCP coalition. Media sources reported a voter turnout rate of about 54 percent, a figure consistent with the 2004 election, but lower than other regions. The media also speculated that this would hurt the Congress Party, which had hoped for a high turnout motivated by anti-incumbency. (Note: Voter turnout rates can be affected by many factors, including the quality of voter eligibility records or changes in constituency boundaries, in addition to voter apathy. End Note.) Will the UPA's Farm Relief Programs Lead to Votes? -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) Vidarbha is a poor, arid, rainfall-dependent region, lacking the necessary irrigation systems to supplant the frequent low rainfall and falling water table. Agricultural experts and farmers in Vidarbha claim that the region is currently suffering the worst drought in a decade; the region received less than 700 mm of rain in 2008 as compared to an average annual rainfall of 1000-1200 mm. During a visit to the region in late March, ConGenoff noticed that the water level of the rivers and wells in Vidarbha was very low. Cotton has been the staple crop in the region, but more recently farmers have planted soybeans, a less water-intensive crop. Only 11 percent MUMBAI 00000168 002.2 OF 005 of Vidarbha is irrigated. The lack of a political patron to help improve the agricultural infrastructure of the region has led many to call Vidarbha the forgotten "stepchild" of Maharashtra agriculture, taking a back seat to the sugar and wine regions that come under the patronage of National Congress Party leader Sharad Pawar. Agricultural interlocutors said that irrigation projects in the region have not yet been implemented. In any case, most admitted that only 40 percent of Vidarbha, at best, can be irrigated due to the regions' geographical and topological characteristics. (Note: In conversations with Congenoffs, agricultural experts and Maharashtra agriculture officials questioned the viability of agriculture in Vidarbha; one official said that farmers in this region would be better off leaving the land for jobs in other industries. Several interlocutors touted the potential for solar energy generation in the region, as it receives the most intense sunlight. End note.) ¶5. (U) Though the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government has initiated programs to aid this drought stricken area, it is unclear whether those efforts will convert into votes this election. The UPA government enacted a farm debt-waiver program to alleviate the financial crunch for farmers, but the program did not reach many of those who needed it most. (Note: Over 7,000 farmers have committed suicide in Vidarbha since 2001, caused primarily by farmers' indebtedness due to rainfall-related crop failures. End Note.) Pradip Maitra, a journalist with the Hindustan Times in Nagpur, noted that 1,246 farmers committed suicide in Vidarbha in 2008 despite the central government relief packages, including the farm loan waiver program (reftel). The government has provided loan waivers to 900,000 out of the 2.3 million farmers in the six suicide-prone districts of Vidarbha, he said. However, 60-70 percent of the farm loans in Vidarbha were from money lenders and were therefore, not covered by the farm loan waiver program. He admitted that the average rate of suicides dropped to 2 per day from 3 per day after the announcement of the farm loan waiver. ¶6. (U) The Congress-led UPA government also tried to help farmers by raising the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for cotton by 33-40 percent for different cotton varieties in September 2008. The Vidarbha cotton farmers benefited from the rise in the cotton MSP, especially since Maharashtra government agencies procured 90 percent of the cotton in the state at the revised MSP. (Note: The announcement of an MSP dictates the crop procurement price. The government is then obliged to purchase any and all cotton from local farmers if the market price falls below the MSP. End Note.) However, at a meeting with farmers in the Wardha district of Vidarbha, ConGenoff learned that good soybean yields and favorable soybean prices in 2007 prompted many Vidarbha farmers to shift more acreage to soybeans in 2008 to diversify their income sources. This resulted in reduced cotton cultivation before the MSP rise was announced. The timing of rainfall received in 2008 was auspicious for the cotton crop, but it was not soon enough in the season for the soybean crop to benefit. Farmers told ConGenoffs that any profit they made from selling cotton at the higher MSP was offset by losses from the failed soybean crop. Ignored by Politicians, Is Separate Statehood the Answer? -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Most agricultural experts with whom ConGenOff spoke agreed that Vidarbha politicians have historically lacked the political will to lobby the central and state governments for more favorable agricultural and development policies for the region. Maitra pointed out that the senior political leaders who contested from Nagpur, the BJP's Nitin Gadkari and Vilas MUMBAI 00000168 003.2 OF 005 Muttemwar of the Congress Party, are more committed to "playing politics" in Mumbai or Delhi than doing constituency level work in Nagpur. Sohan Pandharipande, editor of the pro-Congress Lokmat newspaper, noted that no political party has been able to successfully organize and lead the Vidarbha farmers. He cited poor governance as the main factor for the delays in implementing irrigation projects. For example, he noted that the Gosikhurd dam project in the Bhandara district of Vidarbha took 27 years to complete. The irrigation project cost has escalated from USD 74 million to USD 1.5 billion due to the delay. ¶8. (SBU) The Hindustan Times' Maitra stated that Vidarbha suffers from a "development backlog." He noted that Chandrapur district in Vidarbha generates 3,500 MW of electricity, which is more than sufficient to power the district, but it still faces 8 hours of power outages each day. Nagpur city still suffers power interruptions despite having two power plants generating a total of 4,500 MW. The city recovers only 1,800 MW for its use, and the rest is distributed to other parts of Maharashtra. Activist Jawandhiya believes that the separation of Vidarbha from Maharashtra is the only solution to the region's development problems. With separate statehood, he claimed, resources would remain within Vidarbha, and funds would be allocated solely for the development of the region and would not be diverted to other areas of Maharashtra with stronger political leadership and greater political patronage, he said. Pundits and Polls Favor Congress to Pick up Seats -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) While polling in India is notoriously fickle, observers and pollsters are predicting gains for the Congress, despite reports of lower voter turnout. According to the BJP National Treasurer, Piyush Goyal, an internal BJP exit poll shows that the Congress will likely pick up at least 3-4 seats in the Vidharba region. He admitted that the 2004 BJP-Shiv Sena sweep came as a surprise to the BJP, and they "can only lose seats in the region" in this election. Maitra agreed, and projected that the Congress may improve its position by two to three seats in Vidarbha, close to the findings of the BJP exit polling. Jawandhiya, who helped plan the Prime Minister's visit to Vidarbha in 2006, concurred that the Congress Party would gain in the region. Similarly, the editor of the pro-Congress paper Lokmat, Pandharipande, believes that the Congress likely picked up many seats in the region. He stated that the influence of main opposition BJP was waning throughout the country, and the party would lose seats in Vidarbha as well as the nation as a whole. ¶10. (SBU) Vivek Deshpande, a journalist for the Indian Express based in Nagpur, told ConGenoff that this election will be just as unpredictable as the election five years ago. He explained that most rural Vidarbha voters told him that they would vote for the Congress Party in the 2004 national elections, but to his surprise, Shiv Sena won four and the BJP won six seats from the region. He also noted that while the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance captured all but one seat during the 2004 national election, the coalition lost half of the seats during the Maharashtra state assembly election held barely five months later. ¶11. (SBU) Jawandhiya opined that while Uddhav Thackery, the general secretary of Shiv Sena, came to the region several times, his party could not translate these successful rallies into votes. Pandharipande predicted that the Shiv Sena would hang onto its seats in Vidarbha, as Raj Thackery's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) does not have any influence in the region MUMBAI 00000168 004.2 OF 005 and would not pull many votes away from the Shiv Sena. Neglected Marathi-speaking farmers might feel inclined to vote for the Shiv Sena, he acknowledged. (Note: Vidarbha also has a large Hindi-speaking minority. End Note.) BSP a Spoiler for Both Congress and BJP? -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Assessing caste politics in the region, Jawandhiya expected that Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) would not win any seats, but would draw crucial votes away from the Congress, as it did in 2004. Jawandhiya and Maitra both cautioned, though, that BSP stood to damage the BJP where both parties fielded candidates from the same caste. (Note: Political parties try to field candidates belonging to the numerically-dominant caste in each constituency. The BSP, therefore, may have eaten into the BJP's vote bank where their candidates were of the same caste as the BJP candidate in the same constituency. End Note.) According to Pandharipande, Mayawati's BSP peaked in 2004 in Maharashtra, and its vote share would decline in this election, with the Congress picking up its former voters. What Do Voters in Vidarbha Care About? -------------- ¶13. (SBU) With a panoply of regional issues and problems, what motivates the Vidarbha voter? A group of farmers in the Wardha district in Vidarbha told Congenoff that they did not expect much from the Lok Sabha elections, felt disconnected from politicians, and did not vote based on government policies. Nevertheless, the farmers admitted to Congenoffs that the UPA government's loan waiver and the relief packages for the Vidarbha farmers have helped ease their distress. They said that they would have enjoyed a successful year if last year's rainfall had been normal. When pressed to explain what they wanted from the government, some asked for another loan waiver, as soon as next year. Other farmers said that further increases in the MSP for cotton would also help. Jawandhiya called for government subsidies for non-irrigated farming, especially given the unpredictability of rainfall. He believes that these subsidies will help narrow the rural-urban divide, and also bridge the gap between the rich sugarcane farmers of western Maharashtra and the poor cotton farmers of Vidarbha. Most farmers Congenoffs spoke to wished that the government would simply purchase their land and pay them an annual stipend. ¶14. (SBU) Pandharipande described the national election as an "issueless" election. In any case, Pandharipande claimed that rural voters do not vote based on policies, platforms, or, even, performance. He asserted that caste and sometimes financial or alcoholic inducements are enough to sway rural voters. Although the number of farmer suicides fell after the UPA's relief packages and farm loan waiver program, Maitra noted that farmer suicides is an ongoing problem and no political party made it an issue in the election. Maitra added that voters in the eastern Maharashtra region were disgusted with politicians generally and felt neglected. He claimed that most farmers were not even aware of government policies and as little as one liter of alcohol or two kilograms of rice was enough to sway their vote. Comment: MUMBAI 00000168 005.2 OF 005 -------------- ¶15. (SBU) While the Congress-led UPA coalition has introduced rural development programs to alleviate the problems of farmers in Vidarbha, the results have been mixed. Years of neglect from the state government - also a Congress-led coalition - have compounded the region's problems. While the region gave its vote to the BJP/Shiv Sena alliance in the last election, it appears to have made little impact in the way the region is governed. While discerning the motivations of the Indian voter is always elusive, political observers and farmers acknowledge a strong strain of ambivalence toward politicians in voter attitudes. As a result, it appears that caste-based identity politics and inducements work in these areas more than issue-politics because rural voters often expect so little from their political leaders. The confusing and somewhat contradictory responses given by a group of farmers is a reminder that voting attitudes are extremely hard to pin down, and that many voters may ultimately decide whom to vote for a day or two before election day; it may also explain why political polling in India is so often wrong. Nevertheless, pundits and pollsters seem to agree that whatever the strange mix of motivations and sentiments, the Congress will come out ahead in this troubled region. End Comment. FOLMSBEE