INDIAN GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC ADVISORS STAND BY 7 PERCENT PLUS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000108 SENSITIVE SIPDIS PLEASE PASS TO USTR FOR AADLER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV EAGR EIND IN SUBJECT: INDIAN GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC ADVISORS STAND BY 7 PERCENT PLUS GROWTH RATE PREDICTION BUT INDUSTRY IS MORE SKEPTICAL REF: MUMBAI 0096 MUMBAI 00000108 001.2 OF 003 Summary: 1. (U) At two recent economic conferences in Mumbai, two of the Government of India's top economic advisors reiterated their prediction that India would sustain 7 percent or higher growth rates in 2008-09, and 2009-10, and chided the Indian private sector for its "irrational pessimism." They identified rural demand fuelled by rising agricultural sector growth, low interest rates, high savings rates, the financial solvency of Indian banks, and competitiveness of Indian industry as key enablers for achieving this growth rate amidst the global economic slowdown, and financial crisis. They also justified the government's monetary and fiscal policy measures aimed at reviving the economy, and argued that a widening fiscal deficit would prevent a steeper slowdown. While emphasizing that an infrastructure push is central to economic revival, they admitted that financing infrastructure projects, during an external credit crunch and declining capital inflows, may be challenging, but was not impossible. At these conferences, the government advisers had to defend their views against skepticism from representative from the private sector, who expressed impatience and dissatisfaction with government measures undertaken to combat the economic meltdown. End Summary. Government's Economic Advisors Defend over 7 Percent Growth for 2008-09 and 2009-10 -------------- ¶2. (U) Economic advisors to the Government of India separately defended growth rate projections of 7.1 percent in 2008-09 and 7-7.5 percent in 2009-10 for the Indian economy at conferences held in Mumbai during the past month. Dr. Suresh Tendulkar, the Chairman of Economic Advisory Council (EAC) to the Prime Minister, maintained that the EAC's projection of an over 7 percent growth in GDP is justified even while the IMF and other international agencies have pegged India's growth at a much lower 5-5.5 percent for 2009. He believes international agencies consider India in the context of global factors and look at India through a "birds' eye view," while Indian agencies look at the country through a "world's eye view" by focusing more on domestic factors. ¶3. (U) At another conference, Dr. Arvind Virmani, Chief Economic Advisor of the Ministry of Finance, stated that growth would continue to slow until October-December 2009, after which the government's monetary and fiscal measures would take effect. Virmani acknowledged that the over 7 percent growth estimate for 2009-10 is based on the assumption that the "downside risk" to the U.S. economy is eliminated by September 2009. This will change the "risk perception" of investors, and the "entrepreneurial spirit" will once again take India to a higher growth path, he argued. Acknowledging the recent release of agricultural growth figures for October-December showing a 2.2 percent decline compared to the year before, Virmani maintained that the advance estimates of agricultural accounts in 2008-09 indicated positive overall growth, and he expects the department of agriculture to adjust the final agricultural growth estimate upwards. (Note: Tendulkar spoke before these agricultural figures were released. Many analysts expect the agricultural growth figures to improve, or be revised upwards by the end of the fiscal year. See reftel. End Note). Fundamentals Strong Enough to Support High Growth -------------- ¶4. (U) EAC's Tendulkar explained that the relatively unleveraged rural demand, stimulated by rising incomes during the last five years of good growth of the agricultural and allied sector, would continue to increase. He pointed to shares of companies with a rural market base like Hindustan Lever and ITC which survived the stock market crash as an indicator of the isolation of the rural economy from the economic meltdown. Tendulkar also expects a low interest rate regime to set in, and banks to move away from high deposit rates. This would boost leveraged consumption demand, and consequently raise investment, he explained. He noted that automobile sales had risen in January 2009 after auto loan rates were lowered. Tendulkar also pointed out that most of India's investment was mobilized from domestic savings which is a positive factor during the current external credit crunch. He believes that the assets of Indian banks may deteriorate, but non-performing assets (NPAs) would not be significant due to "the unwillingness of Indian banks to lend to exotic (now toxic) MUMBAI 00000108 002.2 OF 003 financial instruments." (Comment: This conflicts with reports from analysts in Mumbai who point out that banks are now "reclassifying" NPAs by extending the time period of delinquent loans from 90, to 120, and now to 180 days, with the approval of the Reserve Bank of India. End Comment). The Indian small scale sector has become more competitive, and energy constraints would be eased by natural gas discoveries in the Krishna Godavari basin and oil finds in Rajasthan. All these factors working together would ensure a growth rate of over 7 percent this fiscal year and the next fiscal year, he argued. ¶5. (U) Tendulkar also believes that India has a comfortable balance of payments position. The current account deficit is 1.5-2 percent of GDP which, according to him, is small in relative terms, and can be financed through capital inflows. Quick recovery of the financial markets of developing countries would result in rising capital inflows. While revival in export demand may take longer, domestic demand along with capital account relaxation will help in India's economic revival, he opined. Fiscal Push Necessary to Revive the Economy -------------- ¶6. (U) Tendulkar justified increased public spending as being necessary to mitigate the "crisis of confidence." The fiscal deficit acts as a fiscal stimulus, he argued, and a widening fiscal deficit is necessary to prevent a steeper slowdown. Virmani concurred, and explained that the government can increase public expenditure without widening the fiscal deficit, either by decreasing expenditures in certain areas or by raising taxes. Both these measures are deflationary, and would worsen the economic slowdown, he noted. Nevertheless, both Tendulkar and Virmani cautioned that the fiscal space for government spending is narrow, and stressed the need for fiscal consolidation as soon as economic conditions improve. Tendulkar blamed the government for being "locked" into a subsidy regime, which threatens "fiscal soundness," and crowds out private sector investment. Virmani pointed out that the government had met its self-imposed fiscal responsibility targets for the past five years. He believes that any government coming into power following the April-May elections will recognize the importance of adhering to fiscal prudence norms. ¶7. (U) At one of the conferences, Y. Deosthalee, the Chief Financial Officer of India's largest infrastructure company Larsen & Toubro (L&T),expressed concern over the size of India's combined center and states debt to GDP ratio of over 80 percent, and pointed out that servicing interest payments on this mounting debt gave the government limited space for fiscal measures. (Note: This is not new; India's public debt to GDP ratio hit 80 percent in the early 2000s and declined slightly in the last two years. End note.) The size of the Indian fiscal stimulus packages is not comparable to other global stimulus packages, he said. At both conferences, representatives from the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) complained about the lack of credit to the MSME sector, and accused the government and the RBI of not doing enough to address their concerns (despite fiscal and monetary measures in November and December). At the same conference, the Deputy Governor of the RBI Usha Thorat admitted that credit growth to the micro and small companies sector had declined but offered no solution to fix the problem. Infrastructure Spending Key Driver for Economic Recovery, but Funding a Challenge -------------- ¶8. (U) Tendulkar said that the government is re-prioritizing public expenditure towards infrastructure projects, which can generate employment, stimulate investment demand, and spur growth. He claimed that the government was taking several measures to co-ordinate, and push infrastructure projects that are in the pipeline. L&T's Deosthalee applauded the government's infrastructure push, but noted that private sector infrastructure developers faced a capital crunch. According to Deosthalee, international banks have become risk averse, and international bank credit is not forthcoming. Indian infrastructure developers have to therefore depend on domestic bank credit which is limited, he said. ¶9. (U) Virmani admitted that external funding had decreased, and reduced demand had dampened corporate profits. Domestic MUMBAI 00000108 003.2 OF 003 savings increase during a downturn which could cause aggregate demand to fall which would worsen the economic slowdown. He, therefore, stressed that potential domestic savings should reach the corporate sector for productive investment. The government should accelerate financial sector reform, and private industry should explore innovative ways to mobilize the domestic savings potential, he said. The corporate sector could offer company fixed deposit schemes to the public for example. ¶10. (U) Tendulkar maintained international funding, although difficult to secure, is not closed to Indian investors. He expected the global loan market to revive before the equity market which may ease infrastructure project funding. Virmani recognized that infrastructure financing requires long-term funding. Banks depend on short-term funding, and financing long-term projects adds to their financial stress during a downturn, he noted. Besides stating that financial sector reform was needed to address long-term funding requirements of infrastructure, Virmani offered no alternative options to infrastructure developers. Private Industry No Longer Quiet Observers, Demand Action -------------- ¶11. (U) Despite their optimistic outlook, both Tendulkar and Virmani admitted that India's economic revival would be slow and painful, especially since it follows five years of over 8 percent growth. Tendulkar chided banks, investors and consumers for their "irrational pessimism," which he believes, can prolong and intensify the economic slowdown in India. He blamed the media for "the import of the psychology of gloom and doom," and emphasized that the "unwillingness to spend is not justified on the evidence available." He said that job losses in India, while painful, should be considered in relative terms, and is not comparable, in magnitude, to global job losses. Virmani echoed Tendulkar's comments and conceded that there is no "magic solution to change the sentiment of risk-averse individuals." ¶12. (U) Business representatives at the conferences questioned the validity of the relatively rosy growth predictions; one of the participants accused the government's advisors of making an "informed guess" about India's economic outlook. Impatient and dissatisfied with the government's monetary and fiscal policy measures to stimulate the economy, private industry representatives blamed the government for "doing too little too late." Indian businessman at both conferences verbally attacked the government for being too complacent, and not doing enough to address slowing demand and the credit crunch. They also complained that the government's multiple clearance processes, bureaucratic administrative procedures, duplicative tax system, and the "problems with dealing with the government" has exacerbated the current downturn in business. ¶13. (U) Comment: While government advisors remain optimistic about the future economic outlook for India, and the country's ability to withstand the global economic slowdown and credit crunch, private industry is more skeptical. Discontented with what they perceive as government inaction and "hollow" promises of a brighter future, private industry has gotten accustomed to an over 8 percent growth rate, and appears unwilling to accept less. The aggrieved business community may decide to take out their frustration over perceived government inaction at the ballot box in the upcoming elections, but whether a new government would be more successful in reviving India's economic growth during a global downturn is anybody's guess. End Comment. FOLMSBEE