MOSCOW'S SOCIAL MOVEMENTS, DISJOINTED AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000816 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR KDEM SOCI ECON RS SUBJECT: MOSCOW'S SOCIAL MOVEMENTS, DISJOINTED AND INEFFECTIVE REF: MOSCOW 00155 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Alice Wells. Reason: 1.4 (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Despite a deepening economic crisis and polling data that indicates a readiness to revert to social protest, civil society activists downplay the potential for social movements to coalesce politically in Moscow and note the federal and city government's efforts to make it harder for social protests to spin out of control. We specifically examined protests surrounding the auto and construction industries in Moscow. Although regular protests take place in Moscow, we found that they are not large-scale and they do not pose a threat to the Moscow City government. Given the importance of Moscow as a bellwether, we expect continued official focus on tamping down prospects of unrest. End Summary. Moscow Idles -------------- ¶2. (C) Although a March 6 Levada Center survey indicated that 23% of Russians would consider joining mass protests against falling living standards, a sampling of civil society activists revealed skepticism that Moscow will face widespread protests. Allison Gill, Moscow Director of Human Rights Watch, told us that large-scale protests related to housing or the auto industry are unlikely to take place in Moscow. Such protests are more likely to occur in small towns that depend on one factory or industry. Further, she told us it is unlikely that auto or housing groups will gain momentum in Moscow because there is a lack of leadership. Ida Kuklina, Head of the Analytical and Information Commission of the Union of Soldiers' Mothers Committee, said that while the Moscow government is afraid of social unrest, she saw few destabilizing forces in the city. While sporadic protests have always taken place in Moscow, Kuklina argued that there are no current or emerging leaders capable of organizing a social movement in Moscow that could present a challenge to the leadership. Social groups remain fragmented, with Muscovites either apathetic or fearing losing everything in what she called a "climate of spies." She noted that NGOs shy away from political activities because they fear retaliation from authorities. ¶3. (C) Senior leaders continue to emphasize how Russia's anti-crisis program is targeted at social spending, while layering on legislation to make it harder for social protests to spiral out of control. Prime Minister Putin, President Medvedev, and Moscow's Mayor Luzhkov regularly make statements about the necessity of addressing social needs. While there are four effective federal legislative acts that prohibit mass street protests, in the end of March, Chair of the Moscow City Duma Vladimir Platonov proposed new legislation specifically related to demonstrations in Moscow. Moreover, Allison Gill told us that the federal government is setting up a command center in Moscow as part of the federal anti-crisis plan in the event of instability during the economic crisis. Opposition Tries to Rally Society Around Construction -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The failure of Moscow citizens' groups to mobilize around construction-related scams and inconveniences indicates a low level of political development and public timidity. Two opposition leaders in the Moscow City Duma, Yabloko's Sergei Mitrokhin and the Communist Party's Sergei Nikitin have advocated against construction projects that adversely affect common Muscovites, but not so assertively as to risk their seats in the Moscow City Duma. According to Mitrokhin, Yabloko organizes near weekly small housing-related protests in Moscow, typically attracting only a handful of protesters and capturing little media attention. However, Mitrokhin told us that he does not believe social movements related to housing will gain momentum and spiral into a political movement in Moscow in light of the economic crisis. In fact, protests related to housing in Moscow were much larger two years ago and have since declined. Yabloko has encountered difficulty attracting significant numbers of protesters since few people are interested in vocalizing their concerns related to housing. Aleksey Makarkin, Deputy Director of the Center for Political Technologies, told us that neither Mitrokhin nor Nikitin have been able to generate strong power bases in Moscow from these populist causes. Vremya correspondent Julia Khomchenko, who covers the real estate beat, attributed this in part to the strong pressure exerted by local government to smooth the way for business. MOSCOW 00000816 002 OF 002 She described how Moscow government bureaucrats sometimes personally visit Muscovites' homes in an effort to pursuade them to accede to invasive construction projects. Auto Protests -------------- ¶5. (C) Although there is a "Social Movement of Automobilists" in Moscow, auto protests have not featured prominently in Moscow's opposition scene and have failed to crystallize into a political movement. Only 50 drivers and auto sector workers participated in the January 31 "Day of Dissent" in Moscow, prompted by tariff increases of 50 percent on used imported vehicles. While the automobile movement has rallied successfully in the past to protest police related corruption targeted against drivers, it's agenda remains narrowly focused and its populist appeal has yet to be tapped by other political or social movements. In short, it remains as ineffective as it has always been. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The impact of the economic crisis thus far has been insufficient to overcome Moscow's perennial apathy. Federal and city authorities in Moscow will continue to use their resources and enormous law enforcement presence to further reduce the prospect of social unrest, understanding that what happens in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and a few other large cities will set the tone for the rest of the country, and not vice versa. BEYRLE