RUSSIA PLAYS DOWN CHERNOMYRDIN FLAP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000554

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON RS UP
SUBJECT: RUSSIA PLAYS DOWN CHERNOMYRDIN FLAP

Classified By: Pol M/C Alice Wells for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: MFA Ukraine Office Director Vyacheslav
Yelagin told us that Russia considered Ukraine's threat to
declare Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Viktor Chernomyrdin a
PNG to be an attempt by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko
to improve his dismal approval ratings, while President
Medvedev reiterated Russia's interest in building cooperation
with Ukraine on a "mutually beneficial and pragmatic basis,"
and bilateral talks continued at low levels. Yelagin
suggested Russia's response to any credit request from
Ukraine would depend on Ukraine's behavior toward Russia, and
noted Russia's need for foreign currency tempered the GOR's
threats of cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine. End Summary.

--------------
Chernomyrdin
--------------


2. (C) MFA Ukraine Office Director Vyacheslav Yelagin told
us March 3 that Russia considered Ukraine's threat to declare
Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Viktor Chernomyrdin a persona
non grata to be an attempt by Ukrainian President Viktor
Yushchenko to improve his dismal approval ratings. Pointing
to the February 18 MFA statement on the subject, Yelagin said
he had little more to add to the criticism voiced there over
Ukraine's "unfriendly move," followed by the reiteration of
Russia's priority of maintaining close, neighborly, and
mutually beneficial relations with Ukraine. Foreign Minister
Lavrov's February 18 criticism of Ukraine's actions as
something that "should not be allowed" and which left him
"embarrassed and ashamed" was similarly tempered by President
Medvedev's February 24 congratulatory telegram to Yushchenko
February 24, stating Russia was ready to "build cooperation
on a mutually beneficial and pragmatic basis." Given the
close historical and cultural ties between the countries,
Yelagin said Russia could hardly wish to worsen relations
with Ukraine. However, he allowed that Russia would
retaliate in like manner, were Ukraine actually to PNG
Chernomyrdin.


3. (C) Yelagin contended that Chernomyrdin had said nothing
wrong in his February 9 interview with Russian newspaper
Komsomolskaya Pravda, but that his "graphic" style of
speaking had caused the flap. Yelagin stressed this was not
the first time Chernomyrdin had used such colorful language,
and that Ukraine had complained to the GOR about him before.
He rejected the notion that Ukrainian Foreign Minister
Volodymyr Ohryzko's dismissal was a result of Ohryzko's
threat to Chernomyrdin. (Pro-Kremlin Duma member Sergey
Markov, who plays an active role in Russia's "political
technology" work in Ukraine, told us it was time for
Chernomyrdin to go. Markov criticized Chernomyrdin's
single-minded focus on his business deals to the exclusion of
Russia's long-term interests in Ukraine.)


4. (C) Yelagin supported Chernomyrdin's comments made in the
same interview about Russia's inability to emulate the U.S.
in influencing the Ukrainian society and public opinion. He
argued that the U.S. was allowing Yushchenko to split Ukraine
in two and destroy the common historical and cultural roots
between Russia and Ukraine.

--------------
Bilateral consultations
--------------


5. (C) Yelagin referred to the March 5 bilateral
consultations on regional security as an example of how
Russia-Ukraine talks continued at low levels, despite
Russia's decision not to pursue high-level talks with
Yushchenko, given that "no results could be expected" from
them. The agenda for the security talks included NATO,
Medvedev's European Security Treaty, and the Turkish proposal
for a Black Sea Defense Ministerial.

--------------
Credit
--------------


6. (C) Confessing he had not participated in internal
deliberations, Yelagin denied Russia had any intention of
"politicizing" Ukraine's possible request for a USD 5 billion
loan from Russia, and likened Ukraine's intentions to other
CIS countries' requests for Russian aid. However, he
conceded Russia's reaction to a request would depend on
Ukraine's behavior toward Russia, with anti-Russian policies
producing a negative response from Russia. Russia would also
demand a guarantee that Ukraine repay the loan in full, which
Yelagin said Ukraine had so far been unwilling to provide.
Duma Deputy Markov separately insisted to us that the loan

MOSCOW 00000554 002 OF 002


deal was on the table, maintaining that Russian interests
were served by providing credits to "client states."

---
Gas
---


7. (C) Yelagin explained the harsh statements by Medvedev
and Putin about the possibility of again shutting down gas
supplies to Ukraine with Russia's fatigue regarding Ukraine's
behavior, and fear the problem of payments would reoccur on a
regular basis. However, he tempered this by noting Russia
needed foreign currency and therefore could not afford to
take any actions harming European consumer supplies.

--------------
Analysts
--------------


8. (C) Analysts agree that Yushchenko has artificially
played up the Chernomyrdin incident. Artem Malgin from MGIMO
suggested Chernomyrdin's business interests in Ukraine made
him too much of an "internal player" in Ukrainian politics
for his remarks to cause the sort of repercussions
threatened. In return, the Russian MFA regarded him as not
"one of their own," so did not pay much attention to his
verbal escapades. Malgin and Mikhail Rostivskiy (in a
February 19 Moskovskiy Komsomolets article) agreed with
Yelagin's view that Yushchenko was attempting to stand up to
Russia in order to improve his domestic ratings.
BEYRLE