Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09MOSCOW313
2009-02-10 11:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:
MFA REJECTS CLAIMS OF ARMS TRANSFERS TO ARMENIA
how-toVZCZCXRO7182 PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHMO #0313 0411113 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 101113Z FEB 09 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1845 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000313
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS AJ AM MARR
SUBJECT: MFA REJECTS CLAIMS OF ARMS TRANSFERS TO ARMENIA
REF: BAKU 73
Classified By: Pol M/C Alice Wells for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000313
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS AJ AM MARR
SUBJECT: MFA REJECTS CLAIMS OF ARMS TRANSFERS TO ARMENIA
REF: BAKU 73
Classified By: Pol M/C Alice Wells for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)
1. (C) Summary: Russian Minsk Group co-chair Yuri Merzlyakov
February 6 dismissed charges of recent Russian arms
deliveries to Armenia, claiming the supporting documents were
forged. Experts agree with that assessment, and join the
MFA's January 21 statement that it would not be in Russia's
interest to jeopardize its improving relations to Azerbaijan
by an arms transfer to Armenia. One expert suggested only
"radical groups" in Armenia could hope to gain from such a
forgery. End Summary.
--------------
MFA: Sales documents forged
--------------
2. (C) Russian Ambassador-at-large and Minsk Group co-chair
Yuri Merzlyakov February 6 dismissed charges of recent
Russian arms deliveries to Armenia. Claiming the supporting
documents Azerbaijan had produced to underscore its
accusations were forged, he noted they were so riddled with
typographical errors "that no Russian general would ever have
signed the forms." However, Merzlyakov declined to discuss
who might have created the forgeries. Instead, he closed the
discussion by referring to the January 21 MFA press release,
which stated that the accusation was based on disinformation
which did not contribute to the positive development of
Russia-Azerbaijani relations. MFA Counselor for the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Elena Kravchenko afterward told us
that she considered Azerbaijani President Aliyev a
"Machiavellian" politician, willing to use any tool at his
disposal in order to advance his interests. This included the
threat to use force, but also the exploitation of such forged
documents.
--------------
Analysts agree
--------------
3. (C) Analysts agree with the MFA's verdict that the
accusations are based on disinformation. Ruslan Pukhov of
the Center for Strategic and Technological Analysis and
editor of the independent Eksport Vooruzhennii magazine,
which tracks Russian arms exports, said his organization had
not been able to detect any sign of the alleged Russian arms
transfer to Armenia. Claiming the USD 800 million price tag
was probably "five to seven times too high" for the equipment
listed, Pukhov noted that an operation of the volume alleged
still would involve "dozens" of people, and stated it was
hard to imagine such a transfer could be pulled off without
any sort of "leakage" that his organization could have picked
up.
4. (C) Asserting it was not in Russia's interest to reverse
its recent rapprochement with Azerbaijan, and that such a
sale would be a break in Russia's recent pattern not to
transfer significant amounts of military equipment to the
region, Pukhov suggested instead that the issue was an
Azerbaijani "provocation." Not a documents expert himself,
Pukhov said the evidence proffered by Azerbaijan was
considered a forgery by experts knowledgeable about the "work
style of the Russian bureaucracy."
5. (C) Vadim Mukhanov from the MGIMO South Caucasus Center
similarly argued that the alleged arms transfer could not be
authentic, as Russia was currently pursuing closer relations
with Azerbaijan, and would hardly jeopardize that progress by
such a transfer. Agreeing with this logic, Alexei Vlasov
from Moscow State University (MGU) accepted the MFA's
assertions that the documents were forged, and posited that
the only player who could have an interest in circulating
forged documents would be "radical groups" in Armenia who
hoped to disrupt the Russian-Azerbaijani rapprochement.
--------------
Comment
--------------
6. (C) At a time when Russian President Medvedev has
attempted to stake out a higher profile in shepherding a
negotiated solution to Nagorno-Karabakh, it is difficult to
imagine Russia's motivations in proceeding with a military
transfer of this scale and nature, and Russian FM Lavrov was
quick to publicly repudiate the allegations. To the extent
that suspicion has flared yet again between Armenia and
Azerbaijan and with the Kremlin, opponents to a settlement
appear to be the beneficiaries of this incident.
BEYRLE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS AJ AM MARR
SUBJECT: MFA REJECTS CLAIMS OF ARMS TRANSFERS TO ARMENIA
REF: BAKU 73
Classified By: Pol M/C Alice Wells for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)
1. (C) Summary: Russian Minsk Group co-chair Yuri Merzlyakov
February 6 dismissed charges of recent Russian arms
deliveries to Armenia, claiming the supporting documents were
forged. Experts agree with that assessment, and join the
MFA's January 21 statement that it would not be in Russia's
interest to jeopardize its improving relations to Azerbaijan
by an arms transfer to Armenia. One expert suggested only
"radical groups" in Armenia could hope to gain from such a
forgery. End Summary.
--------------
MFA: Sales documents forged
--------------
2. (C) Russian Ambassador-at-large and Minsk Group co-chair
Yuri Merzlyakov February 6 dismissed charges of recent
Russian arms deliveries to Armenia. Claiming the supporting
documents Azerbaijan had produced to underscore its
accusations were forged, he noted they were so riddled with
typographical errors "that no Russian general would ever have
signed the forms." However, Merzlyakov declined to discuss
who might have created the forgeries. Instead, he closed the
discussion by referring to the January 21 MFA press release,
which stated that the accusation was based on disinformation
which did not contribute to the positive development of
Russia-Azerbaijani relations. MFA Counselor for the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Elena Kravchenko afterward told us
that she considered Azerbaijani President Aliyev a
"Machiavellian" politician, willing to use any tool at his
disposal in order to advance his interests. This included the
threat to use force, but also the exploitation of such forged
documents.
--------------
Analysts agree
--------------
3. (C) Analysts agree with the MFA's verdict that the
accusations are based on disinformation. Ruslan Pukhov of
the Center for Strategic and Technological Analysis and
editor of the independent Eksport Vooruzhennii magazine,
which tracks Russian arms exports, said his organization had
not been able to detect any sign of the alleged Russian arms
transfer to Armenia. Claiming the USD 800 million price tag
was probably "five to seven times too high" for the equipment
listed, Pukhov noted that an operation of the volume alleged
still would involve "dozens" of people, and stated it was
hard to imagine such a transfer could be pulled off without
any sort of "leakage" that his organization could have picked
up.
4. (C) Asserting it was not in Russia's interest to reverse
its recent rapprochement with Azerbaijan, and that such a
sale would be a break in Russia's recent pattern not to
transfer significant amounts of military equipment to the
region, Pukhov suggested instead that the issue was an
Azerbaijani "provocation." Not a documents expert himself,
Pukhov said the evidence proffered by Azerbaijan was
considered a forgery by experts knowledgeable about the "work
style of the Russian bureaucracy."
5. (C) Vadim Mukhanov from the MGIMO South Caucasus Center
similarly argued that the alleged arms transfer could not be
authentic, as Russia was currently pursuing closer relations
with Azerbaijan, and would hardly jeopardize that progress by
such a transfer. Agreeing with this logic, Alexei Vlasov
from Moscow State University (MGU) accepted the MFA's
assertions that the documents were forged, and posited that
the only player who could have an interest in circulating
forged documents would be "radical groups" in Armenia who
hoped to disrupt the Russian-Azerbaijani rapprochement.
--------------
Comment
--------------
6. (C) At a time when Russian President Medvedev has
attempted to stake out a higher profile in shepherding a
negotiated solution to Nagorno-Karabakh, it is difficult to
imagine Russia's motivations in proceeding with a military
transfer of this scale and nature, and Russian FM Lavrov was
quick to publicly repudiate the allegations. To the extent
that suspicion has flared yet again between Armenia and
Azerbaijan and with the Kremlin, opponents to a settlement
appear to be the beneficiaries of this incident.
BEYRLE