LIEBERMAN DISCUSSES TRADE AND IRAN IN MOSCOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 003105 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL RS IS SUBJECT: LIEBERMAN DISCUSSES TRADE AND IRAN IN MOSCOW Classified By: Acting Political M/C David Kostelancik for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In Moscow for the Russia-Israel Intergovernmental Commission's first session in three years, FM Lieberman had discussions with Russian counterparts on economic and trade issues. This meeting is further evidence that the bilateral relationship continues its upward trend. Most analysts agree, however, that discussions recently have focused on the Iranian nuclear issue and Israel's attempts to pressure Russia on the pending S-300 sale. The tete-a-tete between FM Lieberman and PM Putin in Moscow shows that the Russian White House is listening to Israel's concerns. End Summary. -------------- Routine Meetings Produce Routine Results -------------- ¶2. (C) December 4-6, Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Lieberman led the Israeli delegation to Moscow for a meeting of the bilateral commission on trade and economic cooperation. Russia's First Deputy Prime Minster Viktor Zubkov headed the Russian side. Israeli Embassy officials were careful to note that Lieberman's visit was not as Foreign Minister but rather in his capacity as Co-Chair of the commission. According to Israeli embassy contacts, discussion topics included civil aviation, pensions, and potential cooperation in agriculture and nanotechnology. Additionally, Zubkov ordered the Russian side to resolve difficulties in investment protection within two months. While no formal agreements were reached, both sides confirmed their intention to pursue joint activity in these areas and work to overcome obstacles to economic trade and cooperation. There was no resolution on Israel's request to open consulates in St. Petersburg and Novosibirsk. Israeli embassy staff claimed Lieberman did not have official political discussions with government officials, although he did have a one-on-one meeting with PM Putin. While in Moscow, Lieberman also met with leaders of Russia's Jewish community and private economic and business officials. Israelis in Moscow stated that the bilateral relationship seemed to be improving, especially in light of Russia's continuing delay in completing the contracted S-300 sale to Iran. ¶3. (C) Alexander Rudakov, Senior Counselor on the Israel Desk of the MFA's Department of the Middle East and North Africa, confirmed that only protocol agreements were signed during the commission's meetings and no concrete plans were established. PM Putin accepted Lieberman's invitation to visit Israel in 2010, possibly during the next commission meeting in April. Ultimately, Rudakov said it would be hard to say Israeli-Russian relations were improving since there were few bilateral problems. -------------- But Arms Sales Remain a Touchy Subject -------------- ¶4. (C) Rudakov did agree, however, that arms sales remained a difficult issue. He said that Russia had already signed a contract with Iran (for the S300s) and could not violate it, only delay it. On the other hand, he said that, while Israel claimed not to be selling arms to Georgia, Russia had both contracts and proof that the transactions were taking place. "It is a matter of intentions versus actions. We have only intentions on our side while on the Israeli side you see actions." -------------- -- Private Conversation with Putin Focused on Iran -------------- -- ¶5. (C) Evegeny Satonovskiy, President of the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies in Moscow, said that Lieberman's visit was a routine meeting of the bilateral commission with no practical results. The most interesting aspect was Lieberman's conversation with Putin. Satonovskiy, who himself had an hour-long closed-door session with Lieberman after the Putin meeting, said that the discussion with Putin centered on the Iranian nuclear program. He claimed that Russian leaders, especially military leaders, recognized the military goals of Iran's program and, behind closed doors, did not deny its intentions. In spite of this, Russia treats Iran carefully and wants to be as constructive as possible because it is difficult to "have a hooligan as a neighbor." The main reason for treating Iran with kid gloves is the potential for escalating conflict over oil in the Caspian Sea region, although Russia also knows an Iran with nuclear weapons would be destabilizing to the region. MOSCOW 00003105 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) According to Satonovskiy, Lieberman communicated Israel's uncertainty about how far the Iranian nuclear program had progressed. Satonovskiy indicated that many Israelis he had talked to believed Iran's program was fairly close to achieving the technical capability to produce a nuclear weapon and that PM Netanyahu had agreed to a 10-month moratorium on settlement construction in the West Bank only to buy time with which to focus on the Iran problem. Middle East peace, he claimed, was much less critical for Israel now than resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue. Rubin