CONSTITUTION'S 15TH BIRTHDAY MORE OF A FUNERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 003104 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM RS SUBJECT: CONSTITUTION'S 15TH BIRTHDAY MORE OF A FUNERAL Classified By: Acting DCM Susan Elliott for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Russian Constitution's fifteenth anniversary passed on December 12 with little fanfare. A VTsIOM poll showed that only 16 percent of respondents had read the Constitution and knew its contents. Many of the Constitution's authors feel disillusioned, noting that its provision for a strong executive branch has helped enable authoritarianism. The relative absence of rule of law in Russia has given rise to a parallel society, existing alongside the government, in which a cynical populace shows little respect for public institutions. Although the short-term prognosis for rule of law is bleak, some pragmatic activists are laying plans for a new strategy to overcome cynicism and apathy, especially among youth, by increasing awareness of people's fundamental rights. End Summary. "The worst scenario has come true" -------------- ¶2. (C) When the Constitution of the Russian Federation took effect in 1994, a number of liberals still had hopes of enshrining human rights in the founding documents of the new Russia. However, at this point many of the Constitution's authors feel disillusioned. The Constitution's fifteenth anniversary passed on December 12 with little fanfare, and a series of hand-wringing articles in liberal print media publications noted a VTsIOM poll showing that only 16 percent of respondents had read the Constitution and knew its contents. Nikolay Popov of VTsIOM told us December 17 that this figure was probably even smaller, as he believed many respondents were embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they knew nothing of the Constitution's contents. ¶3. (C) One of the Constitution's drafters, Oleg Rumyantsev of the Fund for Defense of the Constitution, told us December 18 that "the worst scenario has come true." Rumyantsev explained that the Constitution's initial draft gave the State Duma greater control over the executive branch of government, but that this version did not survive the intense debates among the document's framers. At the time, it may have appeared necessary to shore up Yeltsin's strength against a recalcitrant Duma with a revanchist "Soviet" element (especially since tensions with the Duma exploded in the infamous 1993 shootout at the White House). However, Rumyantsev lamented that the resulting Constitution allowed "personalities" to supersede institutions, and made it all too easy for the GOR to accomplish the authoritarian backsliding that has marked the past five to ten years. "Either we have real control over the executive or fake control" over the executive, Rumyantsev said, "and now we have fake control." Cynicism trumps rule of law -------------- ¶4. (C) Former Yabloko State Duma Deputy Viktor Sheynis, also one of the Constitution's authors, complained to the liberal daily Kommersant on December 11 that the Constitution "plays a second-rate role, or even none at all," in relations between the "powers that be" and society. Sheynis attributed this state of affairs to "an unspoken agreement" in which people's attitude toward the government is, "Do what you have to do; just provide us with a relatively stable life." Lyudmila Alekseyeva of Moscow Helsinki Group pointed out that the governments of Stalin and Brezhnev also had constitutions, and that "people are used to the existence of this document that politicians regularly refer to," but that has little to do with the actual life where the rules are entirely different." The irrelevance of these de jure rules to people's de facto everyday life has given rise to an alienating gap between average people and public institutions. Rumyantsev asserted that a "parallel society" now exists alongside the state, consisting of a cynical populace -- especially among the youth -- that "does not believe in anything," and uses the Internet to communicate while ignoring state-run television (a point that Nezavisimaya Gazeta editor Konstantin Remchukov echoed in a December 22 interview with Ekho Moskvy). ¶5. (C) Rumyantsev believes that this disconnect "could lead to serious consequences," and bemoans the loss of rules in everyday Russian life. As he sees it, the lack of rule of law has resulted in "aggressiveness and barbarism," as people have no respect for laws, and engage in "spontaneous anarchy as a form of protest." Rumyantsev finds this situation depressing, and he noted that this feeling of helpless depression played a significant role in the recent death of Yegor Gaydar, another architect of an envisioned liberal state in Russia. The recent flap over the resignations of two prominent judges, Anatoly Kononov (from the MOSCOW 00003104 002 OF 003 Constitutional Court) and Vladimir Yaroslavtsev (from the Council of Judges),who asserted that the Kremlin exercises too much control over judges, only added to widespread distrust of the Court as a Russian legal institution. (Note: Constitutional Court Chairman Valeriy Zorkin attacked the two judges in a blistering article alleging their involvement in a conspiracy to "bring down Russia," which led to an equally scathing article in Novaya Gazeta by independent journalist Leonid Nikitinsky attacking Zorkin, as well as calls from activists for Zorkin's resignation. End note.) Rumyantsev told us that the GOR does indeed control the Constitutional Court, and that "this is a different Zorkin" from the legal thinker that he knew in 1993, one who "seriously believes Putinism is good for the country." All is not lost -------------- ¶6. (C) Some activists, however, take a more sanguine approach to these problems. In a December 17 conversation with us, Yuriy Dzhibladze of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights noted that a recent Levada Center poll showed that one-third of respondents would politically support human rights advocate Andrey Sakharov if he were still alive. While acknowledging that some of Sakharov's posthumous support might relate to his work on the Soviet atomic bomb, Dzhibladze still saw this support as a potential wedge for advocates of increased civil society freedoms. Given that somewhere between ten and fifteen percent of people consistently support liberal values in Russian polls, Dzhibladze sees his task as overcoming despair, cynicism, and apathy, and "giving these people a feeling of empowerment," which then would snowball into a greater movement. He estimated the group of people now active as a few thousand, but asserted that the potential number is much larger. Ekho Moskvy reported on December 22 that according to VTsIOM, the percentage of Russians demanding freedom of thought and of expression had increased from 19 percent in 2003 to 32 percent in 2009. ¶7. (C) As a veteran of twenty years in defending human rights, Dzhibladze recognized the limits on what he can accomplish, saying, "I think we're bound to lose if we are a small group fighting this huge state machinery." He therefore advocates a new strategy for human rights activists attempting to gain traction in society. He described a project that he and fellow activist Grigoriy Shvedov (of Memorial and Caucasian Knot) conducted several years ago in three regions of the country to raise awareness of human rights and the role of NGOs in defending them. Using sociological polls, they found that in two of the regions (Ryazan and Perm),they had achieved significant results (in the third, Rostov, the results were less encouraging). Dzhibladze concluded that, rather than give up hope altogether, "I prefer to be naive and to say 'Go for it.'" Obviously, he said, one must be realistic; but "now there is a unique opportunity after ten years of stalemate." (Note: He also asked for U.S. funding to carry out further projects like the one above. End note.) ¶8. (SBU) Other commentators agree that the news is not all bad. A December 11 editorial in the liberal, business-oriented daily Vedomosti also noted that, "although many criticize the Constitution for its emphasis on Presidential power," it still provides for "fundamental rights" such as rule of law, division of powers, and "a priority for human rights." Others in the optimist camp noted that 79 percent of those polled in the above VTsIOM poll said that the Constitution is important and respected, although given that they do not know its contents, and given Alekseyeva's point about hypocrisy, this figure is less impressive. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Alekseyeva's point, that a Constitution is only a piece of paper if it is not enforced, is a salient one. The prognosis for significant increases in the rule of law in Russia in the near term is bleak; average Russians are deeply apathetic about politics; and the force of inertia is powerful. Nonetheless, while active supporters of democratic freedoms do not currently constitute a "silent majority," they still form a potentially significant percentage of society. Activists who are prepared to accept slow, incremental changes can build on this support with a carefully crafted strategy to educate people about their Constitutional rights. The same polls that show indifference to the Constitution also show that the younger generation has become accustomed to such rights as the individual freedom of expression or freedom of travel. As disappointing as recent MOSCOW 00003104 003 OF 003 years have been, Russia is highly unlikely to revert to its Soviet form. As President Medvedev himself has acknowledged, Russia has nowhere to go but forward. Rubin