RUSSIAN VIEWS OF ELECTIONS IN ABKHAZIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002957

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR RS GG
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN VIEWS OF ELECTIONS IN ABKHAZIA

REF: MOSCOW 1403

Classified By: A/Pol M/C David Kostelancik for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Experts do not see a strong Russian
influence in the election campaign in the Georgian region of
Abkhazia. This is due to Russia's negative experience from
getting too involved in the 2005 elections, the dominance of
domestic issues in the campaign, and a virtual agreement
among the key contenders regarding Russia-Abkhaz relations.
For the foreseeable future, Abkhazia will remain under the
influence of Russia, regardless of the political situation.
End Summary.

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Russia's support for candidates
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2. (C) Russian experts do not see strong Russian influence
over the December 12 "elections" in Abkhazia. According to
Alexander Konovalov of the Institute for Strategic
Assessments, Russia learned from its experience in the 2005
Abkhaz elections, when Russia inadvertently helped Sergei
Bagapsh win by backing his opponent too forcefully.
Konovalov said that since then the GOR has learned to respect
Bagapsh as a statesman, but was not openly supporting any
candidate this time around. Ivan Sukhov wrote in "Vremya
Novostey Online" that "excessive Russian intervention in
Abkhaz politics has always aroused resentment." Conversely,
Nikoloz Tskilauri from the Georgian embassy asserted that
Moscow supported Bagapsh, and considered that this would give
him an advantage during the elections.

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Candidates' views of Russia
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3. (C) Our contacts believe voters in Abkhazia are focused on
domestic issues over foreign policy. In addition, they said
the foreign policy goals of the three major candidates were
virtually identical. None of the three top candidates
(Bagapsh, Raul Khadzhimba or Beslan Butba) are "pro-Moscow in
the ordinary sense," journalist Vadim Dubnov wrote in pieces
for "Gazeta.ru." Still, Konovalov predicted that whoever
wins will start with a declaration of good relations toward
Russia. He saw in Abkhazia neither a public concern about,
nor desire for, possible annexation by Russia.


4. (C) Vladimir Zharikhin of the CIS Institute, who had
visited Abkhazia to observe the campaign and meet with
candidates, said that Bagapsh's cooperation with Russia as
"president" both helps and hurts him. Voters credit economic
improvements since Bagapsh took office in part to Russian
investment and trade. However, some linked charges of
Bagapsh's corruption to his being under the influence of the
Russian government.

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Technical support
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5. (C) Technically, Russia is supporting the elections by
allowing Abkhaz "citizens" in Russia to vote in polling
stations in Moscow and Cherkessk, the capital of the
Karachay-Cherkes Republic. Prospective voters will be
required to show an Abkhaz "national passport" in order to
vote. Russian Public Chamber member Aleksandr Brod said that
a delegation of Russian Public Chamber members would visit
Abkhazia in order to monitor the election and study
conditions regarding "voters' rights."


6. (C) Note: This constitutes far less attention than Russia
gave to the South Ossetian "elections" May 31, 2009, when
representatives of the Federation Council, the State Duma,
Russia's Central Election Commission, the Russian Foundation
for Free Elections, the Russian Public Chamber, the
Inter-regional Fund for Fair Elections, and the Moscow Bureau
for Human Rights observed the elections (reftel). End Note.

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Comment
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7. (C) The apparently relaxed attitude of the GOR toward the
upcoming "elections" reflects official and "expert" community
consensus that, regardless of the outcome, Russian-Abkhaz

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relations will remain on a steady keel, with Russia
continuing to exercise strong influence.
Beyrle