PUTIN'S OFFER TO HELP GEORGIA: LESS THAN MEETS THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002888 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV RS GG SUBJECT: PUTIN'S OFFER TO HELP GEORGIA: LESS THAN MEETS THE EYE REF: GEHRENBECK-WOLF E-MAIL 11/19/09 Classified By: A/Pol M/C David Kostelancik for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In contrast to some media reports about a statement from Prime Minister Putin that Russia would be willing to help Georgia out of its "dead end," we consider the comments to be merely a gesture to try to turn Georgian elites away from Saakashvili and that they do not represent a change in Russian policy. End Summary. ¶2. (C) According to press reports, during an event in honor of former Russian FM and PM Yevgeniy Primakov's 80th birthday, Prime Minister Putin pledged Russia would help Georgia to restore its territorial integrity. Some, like Georgian "Fair Georgia" opposition leader Zurab Noghaideli, suggested that Putin has appointed Primakov as chief mediator between Russia and Georgia, while others speculated that Putin offered to absorb Georgia into a new Soviet Union-like entity (Ref). Georgia's Moscow-based Charge Givi Shugarov attended the October 31 reception for Primakov, and told us he took near-verbatim notes on Putin's toast. Unless otherwise noted, the following information is derived from Shugarov and should be treated accordingly as second-hand information. ¶3. (C) Shugarov attended the reception for 500 people that included Russia's political elite and prominent Georgians in Moscow, as well as famous artists and other popular figures from Tbilisi. ¶4. (C) In his toast in honor of Primakov, Putin noted the presence of many members of Georgia's elite, based both in Moscow and Tbilisi. He acknowledged that what he would say would not stay in the room. Russia understood Georgia's tragedy and its wish to restore its territorial integrity. Putin said that, before the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war, he had spoken about this with "Mikhail Nikolayevich." (Note: Shugarov stressed that referring to Georgian President Saakashvili by his patronymic was unexpectedly amicable and well-mannered. End note.) ¶5. (C) Putin said Saakashvili had asked him to help. Putin replied that Russia was willing to help, but that Georgia needed to start speaking directly with Abkhazia and South Ossetia first. If Georgia would not agree to be Russia's strategic partner, why should Russia help? ¶6. (C) Putin then asked Saakashvili where Georgia was heading, saying "they" (Note: Shugarov took this to imply the U.S. End Note) would station missiles in Georgia without asking, which would be "more than a mistake." ¶7. (C) Turning to the present, Putin said that Georgia was in a dead end now, but that there was a way out. He said Russia would help Georgia, especially as long as there were people like Georgia-friendly Primakov. In contrast to media reports, Shugarov did not take that statement to mean that Putin was appointing Primakov to handle the issue. His assessment was that Putin's comments come nowhere close to the meaning or implications that the media are now assigning to them. ¶8. (C) Comment: Putin's address appears to have been a carefully choreographed event, given that the audience was carefully chosen to include Georgian society leaders, including from Tbilisi, and that Putin stressed he expected his comments to be leaked. As Putin's offer contained no specifics, it is possible Putin wanted to influence Tbilisi political and societal circles' views of Moscow and weaken domestic support for Saakashvili. Putin's derogatory remarks about the November 19 Saakashvili-Yushchenko meeting in Yalta suggest that, at least officially, Putin remains abrasive toward the Georgian political leadership. End Comment. Beyrle