MEDVEDEV'S ANNUAL ADDRESS: POLITICAL FOCUS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002781 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PMAR PHUM PINR ECON EFIN RS SUBJECT: MEDVEDEV'S ANNUAL ADDRESS: POLITICAL FOCUS ON REGIONS AND FOREIGN POLICY PROGRESS REF: A. MOSCOW 2416 ¶B. 08 MOSCOW 3243 Classified By: Ambassador John R. Beyrle; reasons 1.4(b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: President Medvedev's second annual address to a joint session of the State Duma and Federation Council today built upon the intellectual foundation he had already laid in his September article "Russia, Forward!" (Ref A). Repeatedly citing the article and specific proposals from the over 16,000 responses he has received to it, Medvedev identified rejection of the untenable reliance on the sale of energy and raw materials as the fundamental source of income for the country as a unifying element. In an approximately 100 minute speech, Medvedev returned again and again to the need for modernization in the economy, and in the health care and educational systems (Septel). Only briefly -- much to the disappointment of some -- did he speak to political change, outlining proposals for more political dialogue at the regional level which paralleled his 2008 proposed national changes. Medvedev was more specific in this address than in his article in proposing possible steps to launch the economic, political and social changes he argued Russia needs improve citizens' quality of life and remain a powerful, respected international partner. He played today his tandem-specific role as the long-range thinker well, leaving the economic details to Prime Minister Putin, and the question of demonstrating openness to political competition to United Russia. End Summary. Politics: All Well at National Level; Regions Should Emulate -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In light of the animated discussion his September article provoked, and of the tainted October regional elections, Medvedev's comments tying economic modernization and reform with political developments were greatly anticipated. The President's political proposals in his 2008 poslaniye were largely cosmetic -- giving nominal representation (a few seats) in the Duma to parties that crossed a 5 percent barrier but did not meet the higher level (7 percent of votes) required to secure seats fully proportional to its national share of votes, as well as greater access to electronic media for opposition parties. ¶3. (SBU) Medvedev declared that "functioning, multi-party democracy now exists in Russia." He called for harmonizing of the sizes of legislative chambers throughout the country (Moscow's city Duma has 35 members representing a population of 11 million, while Tyva's Duma, elected by a much smaller population, has 162 deputies),as well as eventually phasing out of the requirement of candidates collecting signatures in order to be included on the ballot. While these issues will have significance for particular groups or parties in certain regions, their implementation would do little to affect the political system in which United Russia party and government officials exercise dominant control of the electoral system. Medvedev did call for opposition parties to have greater access to regional electronic media, for regional officials to annually appear before regional legislatures and stand accountable for their decisions, and for regional and local leaders to meet annually with representatives of all parties in order to give the latter the opportunity to present their ideas and concerns to executive branch authorities. ¶4. (C) While there may be some resistance to some of these ideas by certain regional politicians, the ideas will not have much of an impact on the overall political system. But what will likely spark greater debate is Medvedev's suggestion that single mandate districts be eliminated, and that regional legislators be elected based on proportional party lists. Yevgeniy Minchenko, Director of the Center for Political Expertise, told us after the speech that while the other ideas Medvedev put forward were excellent the party list proposals is "crazy," and that he will work to have it dropped. (Note: Minchenko claimed that the proposals came from his collaboration with another self-declared poslaniye contributor, Effective Politics Fund Director Gleb Pavlovskiy. Pavlovskiy told us that he had been devoting most of his time to working on Medvedev's speech which, along with the November 21 United Russia Congress, would indicate the current focus of the tandem. End Note) North Caucasus Violence: International Terrorism to Blame -------------- -------------- MOSCOW 00002781 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) As Medvedev hit the 90 minute mark, he turned to the worsening situation in Russia's northern Caucasus region. He tied the terrorist acts there to unspecified international terrorism but noted that the root of the problem is the region's dismal economic conditions, singling out Ingushetiya (50 percent unemployment) and Chechnya (30 percent unemployment) as the worst of the lot. In order to fund programs to improve education in Ingushetiya and assist in organizing work battalions of Ingush men to other parts of Russia, Medvedev announced a 32 billion ruble (currently over USD one billion) federal program for Ingushetiya in addition to the 29 billion rubles for the republic he pledged in January 2009 -- none of which, our contacts report, has yet to be disbursed. He also announced the creation of the position of a "Northern Caucasus Supervisor" who would be responsible for the region. Ingushetiya President Yunus-Bek Yevkurov quickly publicly supported the creation of the position, stating that it was not important what title the person bore, but only that he would have the power and authority to take whatever actions were needed. (Note: Moscow Carnegie Center's Masha Lipman told us this was tried before several years ago, with then Southern PolPred Dmitriy Kozak, with little affect. End Note). Foreign Policy: What a Difference a Year Makes -------------- - ¶6. (SBU) Only in the waning minutes of the speech did Medvedev address foreign and military policy. He pledged ample funding to the military for additional military projects, including additional aircraft, anti-air rocket systems (Iskanders) and nuclear submarines. He endorsed reform efforts to build a cadre of professional officers and tied these efforts to his overall theme of modernization. On foreign policy, he reiterated his earlier calls for a legally binding agreement on European security based upon a "new, effective organization" to serve as the platform for addressing issues critical not just for some countries, but for all of Europe. He denied, though, that by advocating for such a new agreement Russia was against NATO, and he charged the MFA with working to make progress on his earlier proposals for a European Security Treaty. Had such an organization existed last year, he claimed, the war with Georgia could have been avoided. ¶7. (C) Masha Lipman, editor of the journal "Pro et Contra," told us immediately after the speech that she detected in it "a profound sense of modesty" with regard to defense and foreign policy goals. After "obligatory" words in praise the Russian armed forces and promises of additional funding, Medvedev transitioned to strong endorsements of multilateral approaches to global problems, noting in particular that cooperation with Russia's partners was essential to confront key foreign policy challenges of Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan and Middle East peace. He praised the constructive work done by the G-20 to address the global financial and economic crisis. He only once directly referred to the United States (together with China) as countries with large populations that are successfully adapting to the new conditions of the global economy. He further noted that modernization requires close cooperation with other countries, and that investment and exchanges are of such a high priority for Russia that it would not jeopardize this by threatening its neighbors. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Medvedev played his role as chief strategist, building on his article to make his case directly to legislators and the nation to take the harder path toward modernization. Presidential Administration Chief of Staff Naryshkin has already told media that some of the regional political changes the President proposed "will take years to implement." While it is clear that Medvedev took into account some of the ideas from main opposition parties (i.e., those that have representation in the State Duma),his defense of the Russian "multi-party democracy" has left others like Yabloko Chairman Sergey Mitrokhin cold. Russians can be expected to wait to see what proposals their government puts forward, and how willing national and regional political leaders in the dominant United Russia party will be to share political space with the opposition, especially those whom were excluded from participating in recent political contests. Beyrle