UNITED RUSSIA'S NEXT STEPS AFTER TAINTED REGIONAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002779



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2019

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PMAR, PHUM, PINR, ECON, EFIN, RS

SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA'S NEXT STEPS AFTER TAINTED REGIONAL

ELECTIONS



Classified By: Ambassador John R. Beyrle; reasons 1.4(b/d).



1. (C) Summary: United Russia's handling of the October 11

elections has left it with a pyrrhic victory. The party

achieved majorities in regional parliaments and big city

councils at a cost of cynicism and apathy on the part of a

vast majority of Russians. The election results point to a

blatant misuse of United Russia's administrative resources,

as well as corruption by overzealous bureaucrats who were

under pressure from higher authorities to "win big." Despite

the short Duma boycott by opposition parties, there have been

only a few strident calls to challenge the election results.

Opposition parties' inability to mount an effective campaign

contributed to their poor showing and United Russia's

victories. As United Russia prepares for its party congress

on November 21 in Saint Petersburg, it faces the challenge of

governing, maintaining some degree of cooperation with the

opposition, and keeping in touch with key elite groups and

Russian public opinion. Medvedev and Putin will try to keep

the public's focus on modernization and their "success" in

combating the economic crisis. End Summary.



Next Steps After Victory

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2. (C) Moscow has been abuzz with rumors of personnel and

policy changes since United Russia's blow-out victory in the

October 11 elections. Following the short-lived Duma walkout

by the three main opposition parties with representation in

the Duma, leaders of Just Russia, Communists, and Liberal

Democrats met with President Medvedev. He deflected their

criticism of Central Election Commission Chairman Churov by

urging the courts to review the most egregious examples of

fraud without disparaging the results. Although pundits are

already writing Moscow Mayor Luzhkov's political obituary,

reports of his death are greatly exaggerated. Party

leadership is split over how to respond to his staff's

augmentation of Moscow's voting totals. Rumors that he will

slowly be eased out of government and United Russia

responsibilities abound. Luzhkov takes care of his supporters

and remains very popular in Moscow. Given his popularity, it

seems unlikely that he will leave office anytime soon.



3. (C) Presidential Administration Deputy Chief of Staff

Vladislav Surkov, the intellectual godfather of United

Russia, is widely perceived as having benefited from the

elections results. Downplaying gross excesses in Moscow and

other regions, several party insiders told us Surkov sees

the victory of only Kremlin-sanctioned parties as vindication

of the "sovereign democracy" concept. Surkov and United

Russia insider Gleb Pavlovskiy have credibility with United

Russia's "brain trust," including Valeriy Fadeyev, Nikolay

Bunin, and Vyacheslav Nikonov. Institute for Contemporary

Development Director Igor Yurgens has lost his preeminent

position as Medvedev's "idea man." Some attribute the change

to Yurgen's late summer public comparison of Putin to

Brezhnev which White House staff confirmed to us was "not

appreciated" by the Prime Minister.



A New Party Program

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4. (C) We hear that United Russia leaders are hard at work

preparing Medvedev's remarks for the United Russia Party

Congress which will be in St. Petersburg on November 21. The

new concept for the party is "modern conservatism."

Modernization is the central theme of Medvedev's presidency,

and he has been relying more and more on Surkov, Presidential

Advisor Dvorkovich, First Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov and

Deputy Prime Minister Sobyanin for ideas. These advisors are

key United Russia Party members and form bridges between

Medvedev and Putin and their respective staffs. The new

party concept is "We can help Russia move forward by putting

Russia's development first." The platform is intended bring

the party back to consensus-based governance and help the

Russian public forget the contentious election results.



5. (C) United Russia strategist Olga Kryshtanovskaya told us

that the dynamics among Kremlin, White House and United

Russia officials have taken on greater significance during

the preparation of the platforms for the two last major

political events of 2009. The overwhelming impression,

supported in comments to us from regional political and party

leaders, is "United Russia is Putin." It appears that

Medvedev is uninterested or unable to put his stamp on the

party. Kryshtanovskaya, who has been careful to moderate her



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public pronouncements on intra-party debates, told us

privately that Medvedev's staff (including Surkov) have

discussed the idea of Medvedev associating himself with one

of the other Kremlin-created parties - perhaps Just Russia.

They did not implement the plan, but she conceded that some

of Medvedev supporters continue to raise the possibility.

Center for Social Policy Director Dmitriy Badovskiy told us

the only way Medvedev would align himself with another party

would be if there was a complete breakdown of the tandem.



6. (C) The United Russia party congress is also expected to

encourage debates between local and regional United Russia

officials. For several months party officials, including

Kryshtanovskaya, have focused on coaching officials to be

able to hold their own in contests with serious debaters from

the other parties. Performance in these debates will be

another means for United Russia to find local and regional

officials who are most capable of winning election for United

Russia in future elections. This is all part of the party's

attempt to demonstrate greater receptivity to new ideas and

help it compete with opposition forces.



7. (C) In his 2008 Poslaniye speech, Medvedev proposed ideas

like the creation of a forum for all political parties,

including opposition, to meet and exchange ideas. In the

year since Medvedev proposed these ideas, United Russia has

tightened its grip on power based on its people in government

and party positions. In his 2009 Poslaniye speech November

12, Medvedev will play the role of the strategic thinker,

outlining Russian long-range goals of modernization, tying in

some politics in his annual address. On November 21 Putin

will play the role of tactician, speaking of the recovery

from the economic crisis and the economic way forward. The

new political topics of party congress debates will not

matter to Putin's base, who constitute the majority of

Russians. They see Medvedev and Putin as the co-leaders,

though not co-equals.



Comment

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8. (C) The Tandem is working even though contrasts between

political (and economic) rhetoric and reality exist. Prime

Minister Putin, United Russia's leader, cannot credibly claim

to have "defeated" the economic crisis, although the Russian

economy appears to have bottomed out. Russia's nagging

unemployment and wage arrears are still problems. Putin and

Medvedev will need to resolve these problems by encouraging

economic growth over the next two years in time, hopefully,

for the 2012 presidential elections. In their presentations

to the nation this week and next, Medvedev and Putin will

target their respective bases - urbanites and middle class

(perhaps 20 percent of population) and average Russians (80

percent). Elites will debate Medvedev's Poslaniye, especially

any proposals to improve the conduct of elections. Far more

Russians will pay attention to Putin's United Russia party

congress address on meat-and-potato issues. They will forget

the tainted elections among Putin's boasts of successfully

managing Russia's affairs, demonstrating that United Russia

is little more than a constant reminder of Putin's dominant

leadership and the overwhelming support he continues to enjoy.

Beyrle