MFA OFFICIAL SAYS NORTH KOREA WILLING TO RETURN TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002710

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, EAP/K, EAP/J, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KN RS
SUBJECT: MFA OFFICIAL SAYS NORTH KOREA WILLING TO RETURN TO
TALKS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Susan M. Elliott for reason
s: 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: Russian MFA Koreas Division Director
Alexander Minaev said that recent Chinese and Russian
overtures and the political heat of UN sanctions have made
North Korea more willing to return to multiparty talks,
although the regime may require a face-saving measure to do
so. Eager to hear about U.S. plans for bilateral talks,
Minaev viewed the return to multiparty negotiations as
likely, but only as the next step in a lengthy process.
Minaev called on Japan and South Korea to be realistic about
expectations and expressed skepticism whether a "Grand
Bargain" type of proposal would bear any fruit. Comment:
While Russia shares our concerns about North Korea's nuclear
ambitions and has been helpful on sanctions, Russia's
interests in stability and economic investment on its border
with North Korea make it cautious about further upsetting the
regime. End Summary


2. (C) MFA Koreas Division Director Alexander Minaev told
poloff in an October 28 introductory call that North Korea
appears genuinely willing to return to multiparty talks on
the status of its nuclear program. Minaev said Chinese
Premier Wen Jiabao's recent visit to Pyongyang, ongoing
Russian diplomatic contacts, as well as the "political
pressure" from UN sanctions have helped to convince Pyongyang
that it should return to the negotiating table. Minaev
added, however, that North Korea would likely need a
face-saving measure, such as a name change for the talks, in
order to return to negotiations. (Note: Minaev's comments
echoed points conveyed to POLOFF by Japanese Embassy
political officer Jun Nanazawa in a readout of Deputy Foreign
Minister Aleksey Borodavkin's October 27 meeting with his
Japanese counterpart Akitake Saiki in Tokyo. According to
Nanazawa, Borodavkin also proposed that future multiparty
talks with North Korea be scheduled at regular intervals in
order to defuse the ever-present media speculation about
scheduling, a suggestion that he said Japanese officials had
found confusing. End Note).


3. (C) Minaev noted the Obama Administration had created
more room for negotiations and that Russia was eager to hear
about U.S. plans for bilateral talks with North Korea,
particularly in the wake of North Korean MFA Director General
Ri Gun's visit to the U.S. He noted that Ambassador Grigory
Logvinov had also attended the Northeast Asia Cooperative
Dialogue in La Jolla, but Minaev had not yet received a
readout.


4. (C) Although optimistic that multiparty talks would
resume, Minaev cautioned that negotiations would likely be
part of a lengthy and disjointed process and that
expectations must be realistic. He criticized South Korea
and Japan for their "impatience" in wishing to achieve quick
results with North Korea. Minaev offered West and East
Germany as an historical analogy, noting that it took 30
years to get to reunification after initiating their version
of the "Sunshine Policy." Minaev expressed doubts about the
effectiveness of South Korea's "Grand Bargain" proposal,
adding that, while the proposal makes for good headlines, the
"devil is in the details" and Russia has heard no concrete
details.


5. (C) Noting he had spent time in North Korea, Minaev
commented that the North Korean regime would not be affected
by a reduced harvest this year. He added that hardships and
even famine endured by the North Korean people have never
shaken the regime's grip on power.
Beyrle