MFA OFFICIAL SAYS NORTH KOREA WILLING TO RETURN TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002710 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, EAP/K, EAP/J, INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KN RS SUBJECT: MFA OFFICIAL SAYS NORTH KOREA WILLING TO RETURN TO TALKS Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Susan M. Elliott for reason s: 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Russian MFA Koreas Division Director Alexander Minaev said that recent Chinese and Russian overtures and the political heat of UN sanctions have made North Korea more willing to return to multiparty talks, although the regime may require a face-saving measure to do so. Eager to hear about U.S. plans for bilateral talks, Minaev viewed the return to multiparty negotiations as likely, but only as the next step in a lengthy process. Minaev called on Japan and South Korea to be realistic about expectations and expressed skepticism whether a "Grand Bargain" type of proposal would bear any fruit. Comment: While Russia shares our concerns about North Korea's nuclear ambitions and has been helpful on sanctions, Russia's interests in stability and economic investment on its border with North Korea make it cautious about further upsetting the regime. End Summary ¶2. (C) MFA Koreas Division Director Alexander Minaev told poloff in an October 28 introductory call that North Korea appears genuinely willing to return to multiparty talks on the status of its nuclear program. Minaev said Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's recent visit to Pyongyang, ongoing Russian diplomatic contacts, as well as the "political pressure" from UN sanctions have helped to convince Pyongyang that it should return to the negotiating table. Minaev added, however, that North Korea would likely need a face-saving measure, such as a name change for the talks, in order to return to negotiations. (Note: Minaev's comments echoed points conveyed to poloff by Japanese Embassy political officer Jun Nanazawa in a readout of Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksey Borodavkin's October 27 meeting with his Japanese counterpart Akitake Saiki in Tokyo. According to Nanazawa, Borodavkin also proposed that future multiparty talks with North Korea be scheduled at regular intervals in order to defuse the ever-present media speculation about scheduling, a suggestion that he said Japanese officials had found confusing. End Note). ¶3. (C) Minaev noted the Obama Administration had created more room for negotiations and that Russia was eager to hear about U.S. plans for bilateral talks with North Korea, particularly in the wake of North Korean MFA Director General Ri Gun's visit to the U.S. He noted that Ambassador Grigory Logvinov had also attended the Northeast Asia Cooperative Dialogue in La Jolla, but Minaev had not yet received a readout. ¶4. (C) Although optimistic that multiparty talks would resume, Minaev cautioned that negotiations would likely be part of a lengthy and disjointed process and that expectations must be realistic. He criticized South Korea and Japan for their "impatience" in wishing to achieve quick results with North Korea. Minaev offered West and East Germany as an historical analogy, noting that it took 30 years to get to reunification after initiating their version of the "Sunshine Policy." Minaev expressed doubts about the effectiveness of South Korea's "Grand Bargain" proposal, adding that, while the proposal makes for good headlines, the "devil is in the details" and Russia has heard no concrete details. ¶5. (C) Noting he had spent time in North Korea, Minaev commented that the North Korean regime would not be affected by a reduced harvest this year. He added that hardships and even famine endured by the North Korean people have never shaken the regime's grip on power. Beyrle