MEDVEDEV'S DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO LAW ON DEFENSE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002349 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MARR MCAP PREL PGOV RS SUBJECT: MEDVEDEV'S DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO LAW ON DEFENSE -------------- Provisions -------------- ¶1. (U) On September 9, the Duma passed the first reading of President Medvedev's draft amendment the Law on Defense. Medvedev's proposed amendment addresses the operational use of Russia's armed forces outside Russia. Current legislation only allows the use of the armed forces outside Russia for missions against international terrorism and for fulfilling tasks under Russia's international agreements and treaties. The presidential draft law would allow units of the Russian armed forces to be used outside Russia to "repel an attack on the Russian armed forces or other troops stationed outside Russia, to repel or prevent aggression against another state, to protect citizens of Russia abroad, to fight piracy and ensure the security of navigation." ¶2. (U) If the bill passes two more readings and becomes law, the president would be authorized to order the use of armed forces outside the country, based on a Federation Council resolution. In emergency situations, Federation Council approval could apparently be obtained within two days after the armed forces have been committed. The president would determine the number of troops, the areas of their deployment, the mission they would have to carry out, and the time of such operations. The Defense Ministry would be responsible for the composition and logistic support of troops to be sent abroad. -------------- Justifications -------------- ¶3. (U) While Medvedev himself said that his initiative was due to the "well-known events that took place a year ago," Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said that the amendment had become even more urgent after the Georgian conflict. He defended the amendment as "part and parcel of state obligations to protect its citizens abroad." ¶4. (U) In addition to referencing the August war with Georgia, Duma Defense Committee first Deputy Chairman Yuri Savenko said the seizure of the "Arctic Sea" by pirates was a further justification for the amendment. Duma Defense Committee Chairman Viktor Zavarzin argued that the brevity and suddenness of modern wars and armed conflicts made it necessary to adapt the Law on Defense. -------------- Analysts -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Moving past the official statements linking the draft amendment to the events in Georgia, many pundits consider the effects of the amended law to be most likely felt in other CIS countries. Military observer Aleksandr Golts expressed the view that Medvedev intended the amended law to secure Russia's "zone of privileged interests," while Colonel Anatoliy Tsyganok from the Center for Military Forecasting suggested that the amended law might push CIS countries away from Russia and into the arms of NATO. In this context, he questioned Russia's practice of issuing passports to inhabitants of CIS countries. Both Kommersant's Vlast' journal and Vzglad fingered Ukraine as the most likely addressee of the new amendment, while Leonid Radzikhovskiy in Rossiskaya Gazeta argued that "a policy based on the use of force is senseless." ¶6. (SBU) Stanislav Minin in Nezavisimaya Gazeta went even further, noting that preventing aggression "against other states" could apply to Africa, the Middle East, or South America, while "preventing aggression" implied Russia could initiate the use of force. Minin also argued that the "check and balance" nature of the provision for Federation Council approval was meaningless for an organization that served only to sanction authorities' decisions. Aleksandr Gabuev of Kommersant suggested Russia was concerned about the situation in the Caucasus and central Asia, explaining that "should the Americans fail in Afghanistan, the Islamic militants might move into Russia." -------------- Next steps -------------- ¶7. (U) While so far unscheduled, the second and third readings of the draft amendment could occur very soon, possibly even on the same day. If it is passed by the Duma, the draft would then go to the Federation Council for approval and from there to signature by the MOSCOW 00002349 002 OF 002 President. Experts expect the amendments to be approved within a few weeks. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The broadened scope of possibilities for using Russian troops abroad, coupled with Russia's practice of issuing Russian passports to former Soviet Union citizens in places such as the Crimea or Transnistria, could be the recipe for new armed conflicts to erupt, whether by accident or by design. BEYRLE