LATEST MURDER OF CHECHEN CHARITY ACTIVISTS LEAVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002074

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR RS
SUBJECT: LATEST MURDER OF CHECHEN CHARITY ACTIVISTS LEAVES
EVERYONE WONDERING WHY

Classified By: Acting Political Minister Counselor David Kostelancik; r
eason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: The August 10 abduction and murder in
Grozniy of Zarema Sadulayeva and her husband Alik
Dzhabrailov, activists with the children's charity "Save the
Generation," has left many wondering who carried out the
attack and why it occurred. Commentators agree that the
murders bring additional pressure on Chechen president Ramzan
Kadyrov for -- at worse -- ordering the deaths or -- at best
-- failing to keep order in the North Caucasus republic.
More of the most thoughtful minds on this troubled region,
while not painting Kadyrov as the victim, are beginning to
see the spiraling violence in Chechnya as an attempt by
others not allied to the Chechen president to destabilize the
situation there further in the hopes that the Kremlin will be
forced to replace him. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Chechen charity activists Zarema Sadulayeva and her
husband Alik Dzhabrailov were discovered murdered in the
trunk of their car in the early morning on August 11 in the
Grozniy suburb of Chernorechiye. The two had been escorted
from the office of the charitable organization "Save the
Generation" by a group of men who the media reported were
"dressed like officers from the security forces" on the
afternoon of August 10. (Note: The internet-based Caucasian
Knot reported August 12 that a local human rights activist
stated that Sadulayeva and Dzhabrailov had been taken to a
police station in the city's Leninskiy region that afternoon,
but this has not been confirmed. End Note).


3. (SBU) Possible explanations for the murders have begun to
appear in the Moscow media. Most journalists with whom we
spoke did not know the two personally, but knew that the
organization for which they worked was purely charitable with
no overt political (or even greater human rights) point of
view. Some journalists noted that Dzhabrailov had previously
been a member of an armed insurgent group for which he had
served time in prison. The two had married several months
ago after his release. Chechen President Kadyrov and others
have seized on Dzhabrailov's past as a possible motive for
the couple's murders, although some commentators noted that
women are usually not spared involvement under the region's
strict code for blood feuds. Dzhabrailov has been linked to
a group of insurgents under warlord Shamil Basayev. Caucasus
Knot reported August 13 that a relative of Sadulayeva said
she had sustained bruises and her hand broken in two places
prior to her death.


4. (SBU) Unlike their reaction to the July 15 abduction and
murder of human rights activist Natalya Estemirova, most
human rights activists controlled their immediate reflex to
blame Kadyrov personally for the murders. Alexander
Cherkasov from the Memorial Human Rights Group told reporters
he had no idea who would have wanted to kill the couple, but
in another stab at Kadyrov, said that "Estemirova's death was
politically related. But it is unclear who would kill
members of a humanitarian organization." Adding to the
public relations feud going on between Memorial and the
Chechen president, Kadyrov took another opportunity to
besmirch her memory, telling reporters that Sadulayeva "only
helped people -- children and invalids" but added that if
Estemirova had limited herself to human rights work instead
of "misleading the public and writing lies," then he also
would not be able to explain her death either. (Note: After
Memorial head Oleg Orlov publicly blamed Kadyrov for
Estemirova's death at a Moscow press conference, Kadyrov
reportedly filed a defamation suit against him. Kadyrov
further raised the ire of human rights activists August 8
with his statements on Radio Liberty that Estemirova never
had "honor, dignity or a conscience." End Note.) While
Kadyrov did hold an extraordinary session of his security
cabinet in connection with the deaths of Sadulayeva and
Dzhabrailov, it was not until after Russian President Dmitriy
Medvedev had himself called for a full investigation of their
murders.


5. (SBU) Commentators and at least one opposition party have
begun to nudge the Kremlin to take action against the
increasing violence in Chechnya. Aleksey Makarkin, Deputy
Director of the Center for Political Technologies, faulted
the Kremlin for failing to send a signal to Kadyrov that his
future depends on resolving the murders of human rights
activists in Chechnya. By not so doing, he continued,
Kadyrov understands that there will be no consequences for
him as a result of the continued violence. Makarkin added
that human rights activists fall victim to the internal
settling of scores in Chechnya and Kadyrov prefers not to
interfere because -- perhaps a reference to his ongoing feud
with the Yamadayev clan -- Kadyrov does not want any more

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conflicts with people who settle disputes in this fashion.
An August 12 article in the daily Moskovskiy Komsomolets
surmised that Chechen law enforcement authorities will take
no action to end the violence unless top Chechen leaders are
threatened, leaving the civilian population to live between
Kadyrov's authoritarian rule on one side and armed gangs on
the other.


6. (SBU) On August 12 the outspoken independent newspaper
Novaya Gazeta announced the suspension of its activities in
Chechnya in solidarity with human rights and charitable
organizations that have also ceased working there. It also
brazenly asked Prime Minister Vladimir Putin if there was a
"coordinated plan to annihilate human rights activists" and
if Moscow had ceded full control of the situation in the
republic to Kadyrov. The opposition Yabloko party also
seized upon Moscow's weakness in the region. It issued a
statement August 13 calling for a change in the federal
government's policies in the North Caucasus, adding that the
kidnapping and murder of Sadulayeva and Dzhabrailov shows the
"inability of the regional governments to perform their
functions, marks a failure of the federal policies in
Chechnya, where unlimited power was vested in Ramzan Kadyrov
and none of the human rights envisaged by the Constitution of
the Russian Federation are guaranteed, including the right to
life."

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Some have found a more unsettling explanation for the
recent violence against human rights activists. Aleksey
Malashenko, an expert on the North Caucasus and Islam at the
Moscow Carnegie Center, alluded publicly that there may be
paramilitary groups not under the control of Kadyrov who are
victimizing innocent human rights activists in their struggle
against the Chechen president. Musa Pliyev, an advisor to
Ingushetiya president Yunus-Bek Yevkurov before the latter
was injured in a June 22 suicide car-bomb blast, agreed that
this could be the case. Under their scenario, fighters loyal
to forces like the Yamadayevs who have lost their support
from Moscow and any hope of toppling Kadyrov militarily,
could see an advantage to sacrificing a few human rights
defenders to incite greater outrage against Kadyrov, hoping
that the Kremlin will replace him with a weaker personality
or one without his own personal army. Kadyrov has given no
indication that he feels weakened by the increased violence
and is not amenable to leave the scene quietly.
RUBIN