RUSSIA GETS USED TO THE IDEA OF A NON-COMMUNIST MOLDOVA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002055

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MD RS

SUBJECT: RUSSIA GETS USED TO THE IDEA OF A NON-COMMUNIST MOLDOVA

MOSCOW 00002055 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary: Moscow is coming to terms with the Moldova
election outcome, and has reached out via its ambassador to liberal
party leaders. Experts, who describe the elections as a "peaceful
example of post-Soviet countries' forging new political identities,"
assume Russia will cooperate with the new government in Moldova as
long as it does not attempt to lead Moldova into NATO. The Duma's
International Affairs Committee head Kosachev assured Transnistrian
leader Smirnov that Russia would not treat Transnistria as a
bargaining chip, while DFM Karasin discussed post-election
Transnistria settlement prospects with Transnistrian "FM"
Yastrebchak. End Summary.

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Russian views of the post-election situation
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2. (SBU) Russia is coming to terms with the fact that Moldova for
the first time since 2001 will not be governed by the Party of
Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM),the party the GOR had
unofficially supported in the April 5 and July 29 elections in that
country.


3. (SBU) Some experts believe Moscow became disillusioned with
Moldovan President Voronin after the Communists' inability, despite
Russian support, to win the April 5 elections. Adjusting to the new
realities in Moldova after the July 29 repeat elections,
Nezavisimaya Gazeta said Russia signaled it would work with all
parties in the new Moldovan Government when Russian Ambassador to
Moldova Valery Kuzmin met August 6 with Liberal Party of Moldova
leaders Dorin Chirtoaca and Michael Gimpu. The newspaper described
the meeting as "the first time in the history of Russian-Moldovan
relations" that the GOR spoke with a Moldovan "non-majority" party.
In return, Nezavisimaya Gazeta argued that the Russian-speaking
population in Moldova and Moldovan guest workers in Russia, along
with Russia's energy resources, demand for imports from Moldova, and
role in the Transnistria conflict forced the Moldovan election
winners to engage with Russia.


4. (SBU) Alexei Vlasov from Moscow State University suggested
Moscow had originally supported Voronin in order to maintain
stability in Moldova. Noting Voronin's pro-Russian policies, he
thought Moscow would not view a liberal coalition "too negatively,"
if it somehow included the Communists. Moscow Carnegie Center's Sam
Greene thought Moscow would only have "limited goodwill" for the
liberals' plans for a more pro-Western Moldova, saying Moscow's
goodwill would end if the new government attempted to lead Moldova
into NATO.


5. (SBU) Sergei Markedonov from the Institute for Political and
Military Analysis called it premature to consider the era of the
PCRM to have come to an end. The poverty in Moldova coupled with
the social cost of aligning the country with the EU, as well as the
prospect of continued corruption would conspire to keep the PCRM's
hopes for future government responsibility alive. In addition,
Markedonov saw instability due internal divisions between the
coalition partners as bolstering the PCRM's position.


6. (SBU) Markedonov went on to tie the election results in Moldova
to a "weakened integration capacity" of the former Soviet Union
space and the "crisis of integrating ideology" (Soviet communism).
He suggested the defeat of the PCRM was a peaceful example of
post-Soviet countries' forging new political identities.

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Russian continues to support Transnistria resolution
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7. (SBU) The outcome of the elections will not affect Russia's
involvement in solving Transnistria. Russian DFM Grigoriy Karasin
met Transnistrian "FM" Vladimir Yastrebchak July 31 to discuss
prospects for resolving the Transnistria conflict in light of the
election outcome. The discussions included Russia's cooperation
with the region on socioeconomic, humanitarian, and economic issues.
Head of the Duma International Affairs Committee Konstantin
Kosachev told Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov July 16 that
Transnistria would never be a "bargaining chip" for Russia, and that
Russia would make sure the Moldova-Transnistria dialogue would not
stop.


8. (SBU) While Carnegie's Greene posited that the election result
might make Russia more constructive in resolving the Transnistria
conflict, Russian website politcom.ru picked up Transnistrian
"Proryv" leader Dmitriy Soin's opinion that the "communist paradise"
in Moldova had come to an end, placing Russia at a crossroads. He
posited that Russia lost its dream of a pro-Russian Moldova, and was
now left only with a pro-Russian Transnistria, unless Moscow
persisted in "dreaming of Moldova returning to the fold."

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MOSCOW 00002055 002.2 OF 002


Comment
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9. (SBU) Despite its support for Voronin before the elections,
Russia has little choice but to work with whichever new government
forms in Moldova. This will also extend to Russia's intentions for
resolving the Transnistrian conflict, however sincere they may be.

RUBIN