CSTO RAPID REACTION FORCE LAUNCHED WITHOUT BELARUS,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001606 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MCAP MARR RS ETRD BO SUBJECT: CSTO RAPID REACTION FORCE LAUNCHED WITHOUT BELARUS, UZBEKISTAN; RUSSIA RESUMES BELARUSIAN DAIRY IMPORTS REF A: Moscow 1469 REF B: Minsk 173 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on June 14 signed documents to create the Moscow-based CSTO rapid reaction force (KSOR). Though in attendance at the summit, Uzbekistan did not sign the KSOR agreement, possibly for fear that KSOR may be used to settle conflicts between CSTO Central Asian member states. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka's unexpected summit absence was in retaliation against Russia's recent imposition of trade restrictions on Belarusian dairy products. The subsequent trade compromise indicates that Lukashenka's ploy succeeded. End Summary -------------- Rapid Reaction Force Agreed -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Leaders of CSTO member states Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan met in Moscow on June 14 and signed documents to launch a collective rapid reaction force (KSOR). Uzbekistan did not sign the agreements and decided to limit its participation in KSOR by contributing its detachments only on an ad hoc basis (ref A). Russian experts reasoned that Uzbek President Islam Karimov feared KSOR could be used to deter domestic insurgencies, such as within Uzbekistan, or to settle possible regional clashes involving Uzbekistan. -------------- Belarus Plays Hardball -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Notably absent from the summit was Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka, who decided to not attend the talks to protest Russia's June 9 decision to impose trade restrictions on more than 1,000 types of Belarusian dairy products (ref B). Because the CSTO is a consensus-based organization, Belarus argued that all decisions made at the June 14 summit were void because it did not participate. The Belarusian MFA handed a note to the CSTO secretariat stating that Belarus's non-participation in the CSTO talks is an expression of Belarus's "lack of approval of the decisions considered" at the summit and that there was "consequently a lack of consensus for taking these decisions." Russian FM Lavrov responded that CSTO leaders would nonetheless be able to sign the KSOR documents without Belarus. CSTO press-secretary Vitalius Strugovets concurred, stating that the CSTO Charter did not forbid CSTO leaders from making decisions in the absence of a member. If no CSTO member declared its opposition to a motion or refused to sign the relevant resolution, the decision was considered ratified. In a June 17 press conference, MFA speaker Nesterenko confirmed that Russia considered the agreements "legitimate," based on Article 27 of the CSTO Charter. -------------- Experts: Belarus Doesn't Need KSOR -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Though in military terms Belarus's absence from KSOR will have little impact, experts argued that politically, it was a blow to Russia's plans. Russia needs Belarus - a key CSTO member - to give KSOR credibility; Russia views KSOR as a pivotal tool in dissuading regional threats evolving along its southern border (ref A). Analysts agreed, however, that Belarus has no real interest in KSOR, as it has no perceived external threats, and considered KSOR and the CSTO to be an artificial Russian project stemming from an archaic realpolitik approach. Experts said that CSTO Central Asian member states have dissimilar interests and perceive different threats; as such, it is hard to envision true military cooperation among KSOR partners (ref A). -------------- Belarus: "Milk Hysterics" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In justification for its absence, the Belarusian MFA argued in a June 14 statement that Russia's trade restrictions "undermined the economic security" of Belarus and thus its overall security. Disregarding Russian FM Lavrov's statement that it was wrong to link bilateral economic problems to multilateral political-military initiatives like KSOR, Belarus stated that it would only sign the KSOR agreement once its economic security was restored. ¶6. (SBU) Russian President Dmitri Medvedev rebuked President Lukashenka's summit snub by stating that "Belarus's actions have excessively politicized" a technical trade issue, but hoped that MOSCOW 00001606 002 OF 002 Belarus's "milk hysterics" would not spoil KSOR. The Russian dairy ban dealt an important blow to Belarus's budget revenue: 93% of Belarusian dairy exports, worth $1 billion per year, go to Russia. In what is taken here to be another apparent act of retaliation to Russia's trade restriction, Belarus announced on June 16 that cargo coming from Russia by truck or rail would be subject to stricter inspections. -------------- Solution Found to Milk Conundrum -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Lukashenka's CSTO summit snub apparently had the desired effect. On June 17, Russian and Belarusian officials agreed that while Russia will not buy Belarusian milk until October 2009 (to prevent the dumping of Belarusian powdered milk),Russia will increase imports of Belarusian curd cheese, cheese and butter. Russian import of Belarusian dairy products resumed on June 18; in turn, Belarusian authorities backed down from toughened customs controls on Russian transport entering Belarus. Imports of Belarusian powdered milk will resume in the fourth quarter; this, experts argue, will help keep milk prices down when Russian milk production is lower. Belarusian milk imports between October and December 2009 however, will not be allowed to exceed 15,000 tons, which is considerably less than what was imported in the first quarter of 2009. Experts speculated that Lukashenka will now agree to KSOR due to the relaxation of Russia's ban on Belarusian dairy products. -------------- Russia Temporarily Assumes CSTO Leadership -------------- ¶8. (SBU) As Belarus was to take over the formal leadership of the CSTO from Armenia, Russian President Medvedev announced at the CSTO Moscow summit that Russia would temporarily assume the leadership until Belarus resumed its work in the group. BEYRLE