MURDER OF TOP COP SHOWS THAT DAGESTAN IS STILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 001501

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR RS
SUBJECT: MURDER OF TOP COP SHOWS THAT DAGESTAN IS STILL
DANGEROUS

Classified By: Acting Political Minister Counselor David Kostelancik; r
eason 1.4 (d)


1. (SBU) The June 5 shooting of Dagestan's Interior Minister
Adilgirei Magomedtagirov by a sniper while he stood outside a
banquet hall where he was attending the wedding of a
lower-ranking ministry official shows just how uncontrolled
the security situation is in this North Caucasus republic.
Pundits have been quick to come up with various versions of
who killed Magomedtagirov, but it will be difficult to learn
the truth in a region where most killings remain unsolved.
Russian Federation President Dmitriy Medvedev interrupted his
visit to St. Petersburg to attend an economic forum to order
a high-ranking delegation to Dagestan to investigate the
murder. A bigger challenge for Medvedev will be whether to
replace Dagestan President Mukhu Aliyev before the latter
fills out his term in 2010. End Summary.


2. (SBU) In the latest in a series of murders of highly
placed figures in the northern Caucasus republic of Dagestan,
Interior Minister Adilgirei Magomedtagirov died on June 5
from a sniper's bullet to his heart while he stood outside a
luxury banquet hall in the capital of Makhachkala.
Magomedtagirov was attending the wedding of the daughter of a
subordinate. The snipers also killed Abdurazak Abakarov, the
head of the Dagestan Interior Ministry's administrative
department and wounded several others. On May 21, unknown
assailants killed Seifutdin Kaziakhmedov, the deputy head of
the Investigative Committee of Dagestan's Interior Ministry
and on May 25, Akhmed Tagayev, the deputy mufti of Dagestan
died from gunshot wounds suffered in a Makhachkala suburb.
Gadzhi Makhachev, Dagestan's Permanent Representative in
Moscow, told us June 2 that the murder of Tagayev was
especially tragic because he had been a popular cleric.
According to the Caucasian Knot internet-based news outlet,
Tagayev, who Makhachev said was trained as a medical doctor,
spoke out against alcoholism and other social ills plaguing
the republic.


3. (SBU) Commentators were quick to come up with multiple
reasons for Magomedtagirov's murder. Aleksey Makarkin,
general director of the reputable Center for Political
Technologies, wrote on the polit.ru website that the basis
for the murder could be either of the two main reasons for
all violence in the North Caucasus -- interclan competition
for power or religious extremism. He expanded this on the
Center's own website, writing that Magomedtagirov could have
been murdered by Dagestan's home-grown "wahhabist" religious
extremists, by a conflict within the ministry itself, due to
tensions within Dagestan over the upcoming February 2010
selection of a new president for the republic. On June 8 the
daily Kommersant picked up on this last variant, although it
noted that Magomedtagirov had made many enemies within the
conservative religious community there for his fight against
extremism and radical Islamists. The type of rifle and
armor-piercing ammunition used in the attack gave some
credence to the shooting resulting from an internal struggle
for power within the interior ministry itself.


4. (SBU) Dagestan's president, Mukhu Aliyev, quickly washed
his hands of any culpability in the matter. Aliyev, who
regularly blames outside forces for Dagestan's internal mess,
cast dispersions on "dishonest members of law enforcement
agencies" who lured Magomedtagirov to the wedding reception.
On June 6 he stated that Magomedtagirov's murder was not a
sufficient basis for staging a counter-terrorism operation in
Dagestan. If such a regime were installed, Dagestan
government would lose control of its lucrative customs
operations. Russian president Medvedev sent Federal Interior
Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev and federal Prosecutor General
Yuriy Chaika to take the investigation of Magomedtagirov's
murder under their personal control and dispatched the head
of the federal Investigative Committee Aleksandr Bastrykin to
Makhachkala.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) Magomedtagirov's murder is further proof, if any was
needed, that Dagestan has replaced Chechnya and Ingushetiya
as the most dangerous place in Russia's volatile North
Caucasus. Kommersant journalist Musa Muradov told us June 4
that Aliyev is Medvedev's "weakest link" in the region, but
that he did not think he would be replaced before his term
expires in 2010. If this level of violence continues,
Medvedev nonetheless will face the choice of whether to act
quickly to install another leader for the troubled republic
or risk further instability that could spread from the North
Caucasus' largest and most populous republic to the rest.
BEYRLE