ALEKSANDR EBRALIDZE--RUSSIA'S CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001490 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV RS GG SUBJECT: ALEKSANDR EBRALIDZE--RUSSIA'S CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT OF GEORGIA? Classified By: Pol M/C Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. While press reports describe St. Petersburg businessman Aleksandr Ebralidze as "the Kremlin's favorite" to become the next President in Georgia, South Caucasus watchers had not heard of Ebralidze before he announced his aspirations at a Georgian diaspora conference in Sochi in May. Speculating that his business success proved he had ties to the Russian government, Georgian charge Shugarov described Ebralidze as low-energy, "hiding something," and playing a role he did not choose. Analysts did not see sufficient difference between Ebralidze's platform and those of other opposition figures in Georgia, including on Georgia-Russia relations, for him to be a viable candidate, or a realistic Russian puppet. End Summary -------------- A Russian for the Georgian Presidency? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The press reported recently that St Petersburg businessman Aleksandr Ebralidze had emerged as "the Kremlin's favorite" to become the next President in Georgia, despite the fact that he does not hold a Georgian passport. In a May 15 article, Kommersant reported that Ebralidze was considered a "man on Putin's team," although Ebralidze demurred, saying he had not met Putin personally yet. At the May 14-15 Assembly of the Nations of Georgia conference in Sochi titled "Georgia -- A Region of the World, of Stability, and of Partnership", Ebralidze called for a neutral, non-bloc Georgia that was a member of the EU, had restored close relations with Russia, and had established "neighborly ties" to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. ¶3. (C) Georgian charge Givi Shugarov told us June 4 that he observed Ebralidze in an interview with Georgian reporters recorded May 29. In the interview, Ebralidze described his bid for the Presidency as a "means to the goal" of reestablishing Georgia's territorial integrity. Once achieved, Ebralidze said he would give up his post as President of Georgia in order to return to his St. Petersburg business. Ebralidze repeatedly avoided answering substantive questions, instead reiterating his goal of a neutral Georgia with its territorial integrity restored, according to Shugarov. -------------- Georgian Embassy skeptical -------------- ¶4. (C) Shugarov said that both he and his extensive contacts among the Georgian diaspora in Russia had not heard of Ebralidze before the May conference, despite Ebralidze's prominence in St. Petersburg business circles as the most successful ethnic Georgian businessman. While Ebralidze's only tie to Putin seemed to be their shared St. Petersburg alma mater, Shugarov speculated that no businessman could remain as successful as Ebralidze in Russia without the Russian government's tacit approval. Shugarov maintained it was no coincidence that the Sochi conference of Georgian, Abkhaz, South Ossetian and Chechnyan representatives took place when Putin was in town. Shugarov described Ebralidze as low-energy, "hiding something," and apparently playing a role he did not choose. -------------- Analysts doubtful -------------- ¶5. (C) Analysts here are skeptical about Ebralidze's viability as a Georgian politician, especially as Russia's favorite. Sergei Markedonov from the Institute for Political and Military Analysis emphatically included Ebralidze in his statement that there were "no pro-Russian politicians in Georgia." For that reason, he said there was no point for Moscow to support any political force in Georgia, and called Kommersant's description of Ebralidze as the Kremlin's favorite "not serious." Nikolai Silayev of the MGIMO South Caucasus Center and Alexandr Konovalov from the Institute for Strategic Assessments both confessed they had not heard of Ebralidze before the Sochi conference. While Silayev observed that Ebralidze's paucity of public appearances did little to prove the sincerity of his political aspirations, Konovalov, like Markedonov, saw little in Ebralidze's position to set himself apart from other Georgian opposition MOSCOW 00001490 002 OF 002 figures, including with regard to Georgia-Russia relations. -------------- Businessman and ex-convict -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Aleksandr Iosifovich Ebralidze was born June 20, 1955 in Batumi (now in Georgia),and moved to Leningrad in 1971, where he graduated from Leningrad State Herzen Pedagogical Institute with a degree in History, and in 2000 received a degree in Law from the St. Petersburg Law Academy. In 1993 he became the general director of the joint stock company "Center for Business and Humanitarian Cooperation," which was renamed in 2005 to "Taleon." He is involved in an extensive network of companies including oil shipment, banking, furniture sales, food markets, and the elite hotel/casino club "Taleon" located in two separate historic buildings he has restored, the Sheremetyev Palace on the Neva embankment, and the Yeliseyev Palace on Nevskiy Prospekt and the Moika River. Ebralidze's success has given rise to steady rumors of close ties with the top levels of St. Petersburg authorities. He is reported to be close to Sergey Mironov, former St. Petersburg Legislative Assembly Speaker and now Federal Council Senator from St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg governor Valentina Matviyenko, and her deputy Sergey Tarasov. Ebralidze's wealth was estimated at USD 100 million in 2007, although some press reports place him at USD 500 million. He married in 1973 and has two daughters, one living in the U.S., the other in the UK. He is the founder of the Aleksandr Nevskiy historic and literary prize. ¶7. (SBU) In 1979, Ebralidze was sentenced to eight years in prison for robbery and illegal possession of weapons, but paroled in 1985. In 1986 he was sentenced to five years for disorderly conduct and resisting authorities. Again, he was released early. ¶8. (SBU) As a first step toward realizing his political ambition, Ebralidze founded the "World Congress of the Peoples of Georgia" in Vienna in February 2009, promising to open a branch office in Tbilisi. In his March 12, 2009 address to the Congress, Ebralidze described the Congress' main goal as to unite both non-diaspora and diaspora Georgians in the former Soviet Union countries in order to peacefully remove Saakashvili from power. While rejecting the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and calling for the territorial integrity of Georgia "taking the people's views into account," Ebralidze considered it impossible for Georgia to resolve the conflicts with those regions without Russia's participation. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Ebralidze's Russian citizenship, lack of presence in Georgia, limited political experience, and outside-imposed ambition do not make for an auspicious start. While we have no way to judge Ebralidze's ties to Russian government figures, particularly in the security services, his candidacy could be a low-cost stunt to keep the Georgian leadership off-balance and antagonized by GOR actions. BEYRLE