Russia following South Ossetia elections

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001403 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV GG RS SUBJECT: Russia following South Ossetia elections ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Russian press has been closely following the South Ossetian election campaign over the past several months. Reports cover the election mechanics and Russian assistance, which includes polling stations on Russian soil, election observers, and "methodological" aid. Pressure by visiting South Ossetian opposition members led head of the Presidential Administration Sergey Naryshkin to oppose Kokoity's plan to lift constitutional presidential term limits in South Ossetia. Analysts, however, question whether Moscow will rein in Kokoity, since he serves as an odious but useful tool in keeping Saakashvili on edge. End summary. -------------- Russia following elections -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The May 31 elections in South Ossetia have been an object of close attention in Russia over the past several months. Press coverage has been extensive, ranging from factual reporting on the mechanics of the election -- scheduled date, polling availability, and party participation -- to reports on Russian assistance, "President" Eduard Kokoity's shady attempts at securing victory and lifting presidential term limits, and analysis of Russia's goals. -------------- Russian assistance -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Russia has provided significant assistance to the election process in South Ossetia, including by designating one polling station in Moscow in the building identified for use by the South Ossetian "Embassy," as well as six stations in North Ossetia, where a large number of South Ossetians live. The Moscow station was meant to serve the only 250 South Ossetians in town, plus students at local universities, according to South Ossetian "Ambassador" Dmitriy Medoyev. ¶4. (SBU) Russia has also agreed to send observers to the elections, according to Igor Borisov of the Russian Central Election Commission. First Deputy Head of the Duma Committee for International Affairs Leonid Slutsky said the Russian observers would number "several dozen," and consist of representatives of the Federation Council, the State Duma, Russia's Central Election Commission, the Russian Foundation for Free Elections, the Russian Public Chamber, the Interregional Fund for Fair Elections, and the Moscow Bureau for Human Rights. ¶5. (SBU) Borisov expressed confidence that the elections would go smoothly, claiming that South Ossetian election officials had "immense experience." Based on an April 6 MOU signed by the Russian and South Ossetian Central Election Commissions, Russia was providing "methodological" assistance, including on how to hold elections "in a destroyed territory." Kommersant quoted a South Ossetian official saying the elections would follow the "Russian model" of the December 2, 2007 State Duma elections (sic). Borisov noted the Russian election commission was not providing financial or material support to South Ossetian election organizers. -------------- Opposition comes to Moscow -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Reporting on the elections in the Russian press intensified after members of the opposition came to Moscow in May. As the Moscow Times put it, opposition figures told "seemingly anyone in the Russian government who would listen" that Kokoity's shady dealings in his drive to reelection and lifting term limits on the presidency had discredited the Russian authorities, who had found themselves "forced to support him despite obvious misgivings." In addition to calling for a boycott of the elections during meetings in Moscow, the opposition organized a protest by about 200 South Ossetians near the State Duma on May 21, and plans a picket line in Moscow on election day. ¶7. (SBU) The pressure from the opposition figures apparently had some success. Sergey Naryshkin, the head of the Russian Presidential Administration, suggested on Vesti 24 TV that South Ossetia should preserve the current constitutional presidential term limits. -------------- -------------- Analysts divided over Moscow's policy toward Kokoity -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Analysts were divided over Moscow's policy toward Kokoity's reelection aspirations. Ivan Yartsev on politcom.ru suggested that Kokoity would simply ignore the Kremlin's "polite hint" to maintain presidential term limits, while Ekho Moskviy's Yulia Latynina went even farther. Despite Naryushkin's comments on keeping term limits, she thought Moscow valued Kokoity as a "most MOSCOW 00001403 002 OF 002 fundamental thorn in Saakashvili's backside," which caused Moscow to "put up with whatever Kokoity did." ¶9. (SBU) However, others argued that the elections held wider implications for Russia's policy in the region. Ivan Sukhov of Vremya Novostei said Russia, as South Ossetia's "sole supporter, sponsor, and patron of its independence," had a "vital interest" in ensuring that the parliamentary elections were "honest and transparent." If not, it would be easy to blame Moscow for allowing a "cynical imitation" of democracy in South Ossetia to destroy the chances for broader recognition of South Ossetia. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) As there is little reason to assume the elections in the corruption-ridden region of South Ossetia will be fair and transparent, Russia faces the prospect of continuing to work with Kokoity for the foreseeable future. While many of our MFA colleagues clearly find him odious, Kokoity enjoys continued support among other services and may seek to fashion himself on the model of Chechnya's Kadyrov: corrupt, autocratic, but indispensible to broader GOR policy goals. BEYRLE