UNITED RUSSIA: SPRING TRAINING FOR FALL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 001350 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON RS SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA: SPRING TRAINING FOR FALL ELECTIONS AND PERSONNEL CHANGES REF: MOSCOW 1224 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Alice G. Wells; reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In the past week President Medvedev has stepped forward to chastise United Russia, Prime Minister Putin's political creation and vehicle for his political interests, for its reluctance to engage political opponents in public debate. This salvo at United Russia has triggered predictable speculation over more contentious relations to come between Medvedev and Putin. The question of debates and governing party/government performance also comes at a time when rumors abound of Medvedev swapping out long-time and/or ineffective governors for persons loyal to him. While party insiders assured us of the ongoing, stable cooperation between the two leaders, they also told us that the uncertainty of the length and depth of the economic crisis has left top party leaders unwilling to assume that they can coast to victory in fall regional elections, and thereby leading them to take steps now such as identifying ineffective regional governors, in an attempt not to cede any political space to the opposition. End Summary. Criticism - Constructive or Destructive? -------------- ¶2. (C) On the heels of Prime Minister Putin's interview to Japanese media, in which he posited a scenario under which he might return as president in 2012 (Ref A),President Medvedev criticized the reluctance of United Russia to engage opposition parties in public debate over government policies. The lashing was construed by many observers as a reaction to the Putin's comments and/or criticism of the leadership of the government party in failing to appropriately defend government actions from opposition attacks. After it recused itself from a first debate with Just Russia, United Russia presidium secretary Vyacheslav Volodin stepped up to represent the party in a second face-off with Just Russia. Media reported that Volodin did well, but that party leaders want to give rising stars the opportunity to demonstrate their abilities - and defend the soundness of United Russia (read Putin's) policies on television to citizens, especially those who reside in regions holding elections in the autumn. ¶3. (C) Despite Volodin's performance, Andrey Silantyev, MGIMO Journalism School Dean and United Russia insider, recounted for us May 21 that the party is finding it hard to maintain its edge, its internal discipline and readiness to meet challengers on the field of debate. United Russia faces no real competition - a few select regional elections will occur in October, parliamentary opposition groups (Communists, LDPR and Just Russia) have pulled in their horns, and Medvedev and Putin approval rates remain high; in order words, said Silantyev, "life is good - right now." He argued that "all capable elites" are now, in one form or another, connected with United Russia, giving the party an enormous reserve on which to draw for advice and advocacy. This is particularly important, he continued, since the party cannot avoid its responsibility of keeping the public informed of the steps the government (in the hands of United Russia) is taking to help citizens weather the crisis. He lamented that few regional leaders are capable or confident enough to debate the opposition, and that only a handful of national party leaders, including Volodin, Minister for Emergency Situations Shoygu and Moscow Mayor Luzhkov can hold their own in a verbal duel. That is why, he noted, it is not too early to give other party leaders the training they need to be ready for a media blitz beginning in September in the run-up to October regional elections. ¶4. (C) Likewise, Mark Urnov, liberal Dean of the Political Science Department at the Higher School of Economics, cautioned us May 19 against reading too much into Medvedev's having chastised United Russia for shrinking from the challenge of defending its policies. Exploiting the media laws to give national and regional leaders plenty of face time with the Russian public is nothing new or out of the ordinary, Urnov reminded. Consistent with Silantyev's description of United Russia's activities, Urnov said he anticipated difficult economic and possibly social circumstances this autumn. He observed that it was therefore a wise move on their part to begin to shape thinking about the government's economic policies. Urnov said he detected in Medvedev's dressing down of United Russia a call to frame the anticipated jousting in the context of a larger discussion of modernization of the Russian economy. Given the intra-party debates (between and among members of United Russia's liberal November 4 Club and conservative Patriotic Club) over whether and/or how to use the crisis to promote Medvedev's four MOSCOW 00001350 002 OF 003 "i's," Fight for United Russia! Against Whom? -------------- ¶5. (C) Sociologist and GOR cadre analyst Olga Kryshtanovskaya told us May 21 that United Russia has some serious internal work to do in preparation for the future. Kryshtanovskaya, who herself made news some weeks ago and incurred the wrath of some liberal Kremlin critics by very publicly becoming a member of United Russia, argued that certain "very smart, capable leaders" in Just Russia represent the greatest challenge to United Russia. She said that after his recent debate Volodin declared that he wants to "neutralize" Just Russia Duma member Oksana Dmitrieva. In contrast to Silantyev, Kryshtanovskaya, who specializes in cadre research, bemoaned the paucity of capable United Russia members ready to step up to advocacy or governance responsibilities at the broader regional or national level. Nikolai Petrov, Scholar in Residence at the Carnegie Moscow Center, noted in recent public commentary at a regular Thursday night political discussion group at the bilingua cafe sponsored by the polit.ru news website, that there is a dirth of qualified campaigners within United Russia's cadres. ¶6. (C) Kryshtanovskaya described the formation within United Russia of the "Council of Newsmakers," of which she has been made a member along with well-known talking heads Gleb Pavlovskiy, Mikhail Leontyev and Valeriy Fadeyev. Given their experience with the media, they have been called upon to run tutorials for United Russia Duma members in preparation for increased interaction with journalists. She noted, though, that the "20" have also been charged by party leadership with "getting the party message out" to mass media outlets via talk shows, print interviews, etc. While the broad theme will be stability and ability of party/government leadership at a time of crisis, she pointed out that even some on the team were internally extremely critical of the government, singling out in particular Leontyev's bitter intra-party criticism of Finance Minister Kudrin and of the policies Kudrin has advocated and implemented. Benching Some, Bringing Others Up -------------- ¶7. (C) Reports that United Russia wants to take advantage of recently adopted changes to the process by which governors are appointed have signaled that additional personnel changes to those made by Medvedev during the winter (dismissal of four governors) are in the works. Carnegie's Petrov noted in a May 26 Op-ed in the Moscow Times that the results of a poll conducted by the Kremlin-connected Foundation of Public Opinion (FOM) showed that only just over a third of respondents had a favorable opinion of their local leaders. Those with the highest approval ratings were leaders in Tatarstan, Khanty-Mansiisk and Tomsk; those with the lowest were in Tver, Kursk, Saratov, Karelia, Voronezh and Pskov. Media reported that United Russia leadership have established a special council to review the performance of governors and to then put forward to the president names of potential replacements for weak or ineffective regional government leaders. This is important, since only United Russia can put forward such lists to the president. According to the recently adopted changes to the way appointments of governors are made, only the party which has a majority in a particular regional parliamentary assembly can propose candidates to the president. Attention is focused on four regions in which the terms of sitting governors expire within the next six months - Altay Kray, Kurgan, Astrakhan and Sverdlovsk. ¶8. (C) Kryshtanovskaya confirmed that the council is reviewing the work of sitting governors to determine who is ineffective and/or exposing the party to regional criticism. She said the call has gone out to regional party leaders to find entrepreneurs who have demonstrated management expertise and who would be willing to come into government. Thus far, in her judgment, the lists are still thin in spite of real efforts made to find such people, and a real need to populate regional administrations with business-savvy elites. Silantyev noted that the party would have no problem finding capable people to propose to the president to replace weaker leaders. Still, timing of the replacement announcements will allow for maximum regional and national political impact. Neither thought that there would be any chance that another opposition candidate, like Nikita Belykh in Kirov, would be appointed governor by Medvedev. Comment -------------- MOSCOW 00001350 003 OF 003 ¶9. (C) In avoiding public debate and discussion of economic and social policies with the opposition, United Russia has relied on the strongly favorable public opinion ratings for Putin and, to a lesser extent, Medvedev. However, its recent activity to energize its ranks and to prepare to use the media, especially state-controlled resources, to present a well-rehearsed message and to back-up its claim to be channeling capable young leaders into positions of regional authority suggests that United Russia is not confident of success in autumn elections or that the opposition will continue to present so small a challenge to its monopoly on power. That said, these developments seem geared to responding to political challenges rather than a sign of any discord between Medvedev and Putin, both of whom are, though to varying degrees, vested in United Russia's continued electoral success. BEYRLE