PUTIN'S ASIAN MEDIA LEITMOTIF: I'M IN CHARGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001224

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM ECON EFIN RS
SUBJECT: PUTIN'S ASIAN MEDIA LEITMOTIF: I'M IN CHARGE

Classified By: CDA Eric Rubin; reasons 1.4(b/d).


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Putin's interview with
Japanese media and his briefer exchanges with reporters while
in Japan and Mongolia have given pundits a wealth of
information to analyze for signs of splits within the ruling
"tandemocracy," as well as for indications of Putin's
predilections for reclaiming the presidency. Though being
downplayed by United Russia and in news sources favorable to
the government, remarks regarding positions Putin and
Medvedev may occupy in the future have fueled speculation
that Putin may be eyeing a return to the Kremlin in 2012.
Putin has, true to form, kept the political system
off-balance, reasserting himself as its pivotal
decision-maker. End Summary.

Functioning of the Tandem
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2. (SBU) In an interview with Japanese reporters (published
in Moscow May 10, the day after Medvedev occupied center
stage at Victory Day celebrations),Prime Minister Putin
answered a wide range of questions covering political and
commercial ties with Japan, but also relations with the U.S.
While these subjects have received some attention in Russia,
it is Putin's characterization of his relationship with
Medvedev and possible hints as to his intentions for the 2012
presidential race that have provided the fodder for political
observers' commentaries and debates. Putin lauded his close
working ties with Medvedev, as well as Medvedev's personal
commitment to the well-being of the country. However, in
amplifying on the latter point, Putin claimed that the
financial crisis was testing the abilities of leaders
worldwide. Thus, at an appropriate time before the elections
he and Medvedev would discuss who would be best suited to
advance Russian interests and serve as president. Putin
reiterated his respect for Medvedev's personal integrity and
said he was therefore confident Medvedev would objectively
put the interests of the country and the "results of our
joint efforts" ahead of his personal desires.


3. (C) While tandem speculation in Putin's interview has not
been emphasized by the governing United Russia party, either
via its website and through its various mouthpieces,
including Rossiskaya Gazeta, liberal pundits have blasted the
Prime Minister, arguing that he has in effect undercut the
President. New Times editor Yevgeniya Albats (an inveterate
Putin critic and Medvedev skeptic) was scathing in her
assessment. She had told us May 6 that she was unimpressed by
recent "liberal" Medvedev moves - his interview with "Novaya
Gazeta" and his meeting with his Council on Civil Society,
preferring to wait for action, not words. In spite of her
doubts about Medvedev, she nonetheless has described Putin's
pronouncements in his Japanese interview and subsequent press
encounters as a conscious public warning to Medvedev to slow
down his reform agenda. She argued on Ekho Moskvyy that Putin
is striking back, letting Medvedev know that he, Putin, in
spite of approval ratings that have declined to the mid-60's,
is the leader of a strong political organization that can get
him elected president, if he should desire it.


4. (C) Sergey Zverev, former deputy head of the presidential
administration and Kremlin insider, told us May 13 that,
while not devoting considerable time to the substance of the
interview, he was struck by the political and bureaucratic
boldness Putin demonstrated in (a) putting himself at the
center of 2012 presidential decision-making and (b) while
tipping his hat to Medvedev's constitutional responsibilities
to guide foreign policy, nonetheless proceeding to pronounce
on an array of critical issues, not the least of which was
U.S.-Russian relations. Zverev argued that improving
U.S.-Russian relations would require a huge commitment of
time and energy from Medvedev that would largely go
unappreciated by the Russian public.


5. (C) To date Medvedev has not commented on Putin's
description of the 2012 presidential race. However,
Medvedev's swipe at United Russia's reluctance to engage in
public debates with representatives of other political
parties is also being considered in the context of Putin's
recent jabs. Medvedev's support for laws promoting these
debates is seen as being aimed directly at Putin.
Furthermore, Medvedev's criticism of the way in which state
funds have been allocated to large private corporations --
with the idea that the president is displeased with the work
of Finance Minister Kudrin -- is also being viewed as
implicit criticism of Putin's government and of the Prime
Minister himself.

Comment

MOSCOW 00001224 002 OF 002


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6. (C) Putin's comments have intensified speculation over the
long-term health of the tandem, and are consistent with his
penchant for keeping the Russian political elite off-balance
and for preserving all political options.
RUBIN