TUVA: LONELY REPUBLIC SEEKS STABLE RELATIONSHIP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 001174

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL KIRF SOCI RS
SUBJECT: TUVA: LONELY REPUBLIC SEEKS STABLE RELATIONSHIP
WITH...ANYONE

REF: 06 MOSCOW 11276


1. (SBU) Summary. A recent trip to the remote Siberian
republic of Tuva revealed overwhelming support for the ruling
United Russia party, but social and economic isolation from
the rest of the country. The capital of Tuva trumpeted no
major businesses and relied on government allocations, small
business development, and limited tourism for its success.
With his recent criticism of federal government incompetency
for declining social and economic conditions in the region,
Republic of Tuva leader Kara-ool sparked old and improbable
rumors that the republic would secede from Russia. Facing
the highest unemployment levels in Siberia, Tuvan economic
leaders pointed to the importance of a proposed railroad from
Krasnoyarsk and the reestablishment of direct flights to
Moscow as to its financial future. Local leaders are
considering designating shamanism, a prominent practice in
Siberia, as a religion rather than a tradition, with shamans
further roiled by a proposal to elect the first Supreme
Shaman of Russia. The majority Buddhist population enjoys
freedom of worship without constraint. End Summary.

In Tuva, United Russia Is the Only Show in Town
-------------- --


2. (SBU) Officials in Tuva noted that United Russia
maintained a firm grasp on the administration's reins. Local
party head Sonam Eres Mongun-oolovich told us that recent
party polling across the republic indicated that
approximately 90 percent of Tuvan's residents supported
United Russia and its policies. Certainly, past indicators
(reftel) and local council election results from the towns of
Turan and Ak-Dovurak served as evidence of United Russia's
popularity, with polling stations in both locations recording
80 to 93 percent support for its candidates. When asked
about the reason for the party's popularity, Mongun-oolovich
stated that the population simply "believed in Medvedev and
Putin" and, of course, supported local hero and Minister of
Emergency Situations Sergey Shoygu's role in the
administration. Yet, Mongun-oolovich quickly admitted that
local party members would not consider deviating from or
tweaking the national party platform to fit local needs,
saying that "we simply implement the plans from Moscow."


3. (SBU) Local Communist Party of the Russian Federation
(KPRF) leader Vladimir Gubtsov told us that 10 percent of the
Tuvan Republic population backed his party, but he "felt
confident" that as many as 30 percent could be persuaded to
vote for the KPRF. Acknowledging that his party faced
long-term hurdles since the average age of its supporters was
57, he believed that pensioners and farmers would always turn
to the KPRF to fight for social equality. Peddling
fundamental Communist platform issues, Gubtsov promised to
work with United Russia to address the housing crisis in
Kyzyl, exacerbated by Tuva's worsening rural-to-urban
migration that has hobbled its civil services. He also
touted a hackneyed approach to Tuva's problems: taking the
money in the Russian government's oil stabilization fund and
dividing it up among its citizens so that "everyone can own a
car and have something to eat."

Secession from Russia?
--------------


4. (SBU) Republic of Tuva head Sholban Kara-ool
coincidentally fanned conspiracy theories about Tuvan desires
for secession when he announced at an April 20 press
conference that Tuvan authorities found federal government
activities deleterious to the socio-economic situation in the
region. Kara-ool blamed federal tax and customs officials
for obstructing local businesses, a notion supported by the
federal inspector for Tuva, Aleksandr Popov. Both pressed
regional and federal authorities to cooperate and draft new
agreements that would enable local businesses to succeed, yet
no government officials could cite any concrete proposals to
reach their goals. Head of the Federal Tax Service for Tuva
Dmitry Kastyrin simply rebutted Kara-ool's argument by saying
that Tuvan entrepreneurs had shirked tax payments for years,
and now the federal government is just trying to enforce
local tax payments. Rector of the University of Tuva Ondar
Oktyaevich doubted that any concrete plans to resolve local
social issues would materialize, telling us on April 30 that
such debates have existed in Tuva for as long as he could
remember. More importantly, he noted with conviction that
Tuva would "remain a part of the Russian Federation, no
matter what the media says."

Economic Success: Location, Location, Location
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5. (SBU) Tuva's near isolation from the rest of Russia
continues to determine, in part, its economic success or
failure. Director for External Economic Affairs for Tuva
Rolmaa Monge explained to us on April 29 that the development
of a proposed Kuragino-Kyzyl railroad line is the most
important prospective economic project for the republic, one
that could "make us self-sufficient and not reliant on
federal government allocations." Expected to cost almost 100
billion rubles (approximately three billion dollars) and
employ 18,000 workers and 4,000 specialists, the 415
kilometer track will probably run alongside the M-54 highway,
the only other overland route linking Tuva to the rest of
Siberia. While a completion date has not been set, project
bidding will continue until 2014. Monge highlighted Kyzyl's
poor airline connections as a second hurdle to development,
noting that direct flights from Moscow ceased in 2005 because
of financial losses, and that Novosibirsk Avia only restarted
flights to Krasnoyarsk in April 2009. Coupled with the
constant threat posed by avalanches along the M-54 that block
all overland traffic during Tuva's harsh winters, Monge
believed that nothing significant would change in the
republic until the completion of these transportation
projects.


6. (SBU) Kyzyl Mayor Vyacheslav Khovalyg also alluded to the
problems caused by Tuva's virtual separation from the
remainder of the country. First of all, he pointed to the
impact of Tuva's harsh climate (the average annual
temperature is only 0.5 degrees Celsius),noting that the
city administration constantly prepared for the upcoming
winter. He expressed great pride that no major fuel delivery
or heating accidents had occurred in the past year, an event
that can become fatal considering that repairs or rescues can
take a considerable amount of time and costly because of the
republic's geographical isolation. Despite possessing
enormous deposits of copper, cobalt, nickel, and uranium --
and the world's third largest deposit of coke coal (over 900
million tons) -- the republic has lagged far behind the rest
of Russia economically, in large part because of Tuva's poor
technological development and inability to transport mined
materials. That said, one of the world's largest asbestos
mines located in Ak-Dovurak served as Western Tuva's main
economic vehicle, an example of some limited success.
Khovalyg placed a high priority on the repair of declining
economic relations with Mongolia, noting that cross-border
trade had dropped over 50 percent since the economic crisis.


Unemployment Buckling Tuva's Knees
--------------


7. (SBU) The recent post-crisis rise in unemployment in
Russia has particularly stung, with the Omsk Guberniya news
agency reporting on April 14 that "official" unemployment in
the Republic of Tuva was the highest in all of Siberia at 8.5
percent. While most officials in Tuva held poker faces,
stating that local unemployment numbers were even below those
of European Russia, some acknowledged that unemployment
constituted a huge problem and real statistics exceeded the
official numbers. Drug trafficking served as a lucrative and
attractive alternative to unemployment for some Tuvan youth,
who helped to supply one-third of the Russian marijuana
market, according to Monge. Tuva also boasted one of
Russia's highest birth and highest death rates, respectively,
creating potentially tense conditions for Tuva's
disproportionately young population in the future.

Shamanism: Religion or Tradition?
--------------


8. (SBU) While the practice of Shamanism has served as a
relatively untouched form of healing and traditional faith
for centuries in Siberia, two controversial events squarely
placed the practice in the spotlight. Local government
officials in Tuva and its neighboring republics were
considering whether to designate shamanism as a religion,
requiring its practitioners to comply with registration
procedures required of other religions, or as a tradition or
philosophy. The ramifications for shamans in the region
could be significant, especially considering the onerous
reporting requirements and impact on their finances.
President-for-Life of the Tuva Shamans Kenin-Lopsan Mongush
supported the idea of shamanism as a religion, saying "there
can be no other explanation of its power." He noted that
shamans are born healers, chosen by a higher power to help
others. On the other hand, in the neighboring republic of
Khakassia, Society of Traditional Faith of Khakassia Shaman
Viktor Kishteyev scoffed at the idea, saying that shamanism
had always been a spiritual method for healing the sick --
not a religion -- and did not need regulation by the

MOSCOW 00001174 003 OF 003


Department of Health, nor the Ministry of Justice. "Those
who have proposed the idea have probably never experienced a
ceremony to begin with." Both the Ministries of Justice and
Health continued to consider ways to regulate the practice,
but with no firm deadline in sight.


9. (SBU) The second debate centered on a proposal to hold
the first election in history of a Supreme Shaman of Russia.
On April 27, the Shamanism Journal (www.shamanstvo.ru)
released a list of 188 candidates for the election, a notion
supported by the majority of shamans in the Republic of
Buryatia but bitterly opposed by over 300 shamans in Tuva.
In spite of the fact that 52 of the 188 candidates reside in
Tuva, Mongush explained to us on April 29 that the shamans in
Buryatia "have their own agenda, and only want to have power
for power's sake." As one of the most respected people in
Tuva, Mongush believed that pure shamanism should have no
connection to politics, only to healing the sick (Note:
Mongush's picture was in numerous government buildings,
museums, and cafes as evidence of his local respect. End
note). Subsequent to these comments, Mongush demanded that
we purchase a set of his writings for 5,000 rubles
(approximately 150 USD) and pass them to the Library of
Congress as a gesture of the United States' respect for the
meeting, justifying the request because "he did not like
politics." Khakassia's Kishteyev supported Mongush's
comments on April 27, yet added that Mongush himself already
had established his power in Tuva, and losing an election to
a Buryat shaman would diminish Mongush's status, a potential
motive for his outspoken opposition. Elections are scheduled
for late 2009.

Buddhists Content with Religious Situation
--------------


10. (SBU) The majority Buddhist population in Tuva --
approximately 65 percent of all residents -- enjoyed freedom
of worship without constraint, a sharp contrast to early
Soviet terror unleashed on Buddhist monks and the subsequent
strain of Communist atheism. Aside from a new Russian
Orthodox cathedral and a few Buddhist temples, Kyzyl did not
have any other obvious halls of worship. Republic of Tuva
head for religious affairs Oorzhak Dadar-oolovich told us
that only a few Protestant groups existed in Tuva, largely
because of the difficulty for missionaries to travel to and
work in the region (Note: the republic registered only 9,000
foreign visitors in 2008, 96 of whom were Americans
visitors). He did note that an Old Believer group lived in
utter isolation from the rest of Tuvan society in the north
of the region, abiding by their own laws and practices.
Dadar-oolovich attributed the spirit of religious freedom in
Tuva, to some degree, to the republic's history of religious
persecution. Shaman Mongush claimed, however, that the
government had discriminated against him as the head shaman
of the republic, refusing to grant him ownership rights of
the house he had lived and worked in since the Soviet era.
Dadar-oolovich explained that the Tuvan government had
offered to build and equip Mongush with a new house and
worship center in a different part of town, but refused to
cede the plot located next to the Republic of Tuva House of
Government in which Mongush currently lives.

Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) Tuva's future rests, to some degree, on the
improvement of its transportation corridors, and local
officials do not expect any major developments in the next
ten years. Once it does establish a direct rail link with
the rest of Siberia, whether the republic's vast natural
resources will be exploited depends on global demand for
these materials.
RUBIN