MFA ON THE PEACE PROCESS, ISRAEL, IRAN AND SUDAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001113

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL UNSC IS IR SU RS
SUBJECT: MFA ON THE PEACE PROCESS, ISRAEL, IRAN AND SUDAN

Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (Summary): MFA Middle East and North Africa Department
Director Sergey Vershinin told us on April 28 that the GOR
envisioned the proposed May 11 UNSC ministerial on the Middle
East as a general discussion of the situation in the region
and a chance to reiterate the Security Council's support for
the peace process. Urging the Secretary's participation,
Vershinin described the draft Presidential Statement as a
general document that should not draw Israeli opposition. He
described DFM Saltanov's April visit to Israel as a chance to
take the pulse of the new government and discuss bilateral
relations that are "intensifying." Vershinin complained that
Netanyahu had "emasculated" the Palestinians and diminished
the chances for a viable Palestinian state, but held out hope
that governing would lead to greater pragmatism. He was
pessimistic about success in talks between the Palestinian
factions, and reiterated that it was necessary to engage
Hamas since it controlled Gaza. Vershinin said that
satisfying Israeli concerns about IRAN factored prominently
into Moscow's discussions with Tel Aviv, and explained that
the Russian proposal for a Gulf security organization was
intended to provide the region with assurances regarding
Iranian intentions. The GOR is interested in possible
consultations on Sudan between Special Envoy Gration and
Russian envoy Margelov. End summary.

Proposed UNSC Ministerial on the Middle East
--------------


2. (C) Urging the Secretary's participation, MFA Middle East
Department Director Vershinin explained to us on April 28
that FM Lavrov envisioned the proposed May 11 UNSC
ministerial meeting on the Middle East as a short discussion
among Security Council members of the general situation in
the Middle East and status of the MEPP. The proposed
Presidential Statement would be a general document
reiterating UNSC support for a two state solution, the
Quartet principles, and the need for continued discussions
between Tel Aviv and the Palestinian Authority. Vershinin
thought the draft document, which was still being worked in
New York, was innocuous enough so as not to alarm the
Israelis or Arab states. Russia also proposed holding a
Quartet meeting either the same day or day after the UNSC
ministerial, but did not want to mix its UNSC ministerial
with a meeting with the Quartet's Arab partners. The GOR
would also look for support for its proposed Moscow Middle
East conference, for which "all sides" have said they are
ready, according to Vershinin. He expressed concern that
upcoming U.S. meetings with Arab leaders may presage a
U.S.-hosted multilateral event, and urged U.S. reaffirmation
of support for the Moscow conference.

Russia Getting to Know Israeli Government
--------------


3. (C) Vershinin explained that DFM Saltanov's April visit to
Israel was intended to get a sense of the new government, and
he met with PM Netanyahu, FM Lieberman, and National Security
Advisor Arad, among others. Vershinin commented on the
difficulty the new government faced, and the difficulty in
getting a grasp on the direction it would take, because of
the size and makeup of a potentially unwieldy coalition that
included the Labor Party leader as Minister of Defense.
Vershinin commented that FM Lieberman brought both positives
and negatives to the new government, and considered him
pragmatic despite the FM's often harsh rhetoric. Saltanov's
visit also focused on bilateral relations, which Vershinin
characterized as "intensifying" on both the political and
economic fronts.


4. (C) Vershinin said that Russia's proposal for a UNSC
ministerial was a topic of several of Saltanov's
conversations in Tel Aviv, as was the proposed Moscow Middle
East conference. Vershinin was mildly dismissive of Israeli
concerns about holding the ministerial, commenting that
Israel was "very sensitive" about any international
conference or meeting on the MEPP or the situation in the
Middle East. Russia's intensive lobbying of Lieberman helped
produce Israeli support for the UNSC ministerial.

Netanyahu Has "Emasculated" the Palestinians
--------------


5. (C) Vershinin was particularly critical of Netanyahu for
combining ambiguous statements on prospects for a two state
solution with harsh polemics, policies, and caveats that have
"emasculated" the Palestinians and all but eliminated the
chances for a viable Palestinian state. Israel has not
allowed adequate funding, aid deliveries or security

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assistance to the PA. The situation was especially acute in
Gaza, which was in much worse condition than it was before
the recent Israeli military incursion against Hamas.
Vershinin held out hope that the vigors of governing,
combined with international pressure, would produce more
pragmatic policies.

Hamas and Hizbollah
--------------


6. (C) Vershinin was pessimistic about the chances for
success in the Egyptian-led dialogue between the PA and
Hamas, which could not go on indefinitely. He reiterated
that although Hamas did not appear willing to recognize the
Quartet principles, it was still necessary to engage this
organization that was a "reality that cannot be ignored"
because of its physical control of Gaza. He pushed for U.S.
tolerance of a Palestinian unity government that endorsed the
Quartet principles, even if the position of Hamas officials
remained ambiguous. Vershinin compared Hamas and Hizbollah,
which were outgrowths of the poor political and economic
situations in Palestine and Lebanon rather than purely
Iranian constructions. He explained that when his Lebanese
interlocutors complain that Hizbollah is an Iranian product,
he counters that Hizbollah is a Lebanese creature that,
judging from its electoral success, has significant support
among the Lebanese people. Hamas is similarly a product of
conditions in the occupied territories.

Iran
--------------


7. (C) Vershinin acknowledged the shadow cast by IRAN on
Israeli politics, which presented a "big problem" for Russia.
DFM Saltanov sought to satisfy Israeli concerns over IRAN
during bilateral conversations, although he did not go beyond
Russian talking points that it would limit arms sales to
defensive systems that do not destabilize the regional
balance. He expressed appreciation for the Secretary's
recent statement that progress on IRAN and Palestine had to
go "hand in hand," and agreed with the message that S/E
Mitchell delivered to Middle East leaders that we have to
move quickly on the MEPP in order to avoid an incident in the
region that could have unpredictable results. Vershinin
reiterated that Russia sees IRAN as a "major player in the
region" that is also looking for signals regarding the new
Israeli government's intentions. IRAN also needs to provide
assurances to its neighbors, which, Vershinin explained, was
the main reason for including IRAN in the GOR proposal to
form a Gulf security organization, an idea that has been
floated by Russian officials during visits to the region but
not yet been fleshed out.

Sudan
--------------


8. (C) Vershinin expressed the GOR's interest in a visit to
Moscow by Special Envoy for Sudan Gration, which would allow
for consultations with the Russian President's envoy to
Sudan, Mikhail Margelov, who is Chairman of the Federation
Council's International Affairs Committee. Vershinin said
that Margelov and the MFA cooperated on Sudan, but that the
envoy handled the political side while the MFA "did the work."
BEYRLE