Uruguay: Mujica Strong Favorite in November 29 Presidential

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000666 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH INR FOR ANDREW STEIN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV UY SUBJECT: Uruguay: Mujica Strong Favorite in November 29 Presidential Election REF: MONTEVIDEO 0609; MONTEVIDEO 0615 Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) With the November 29 runoff election less than a week away, ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition candidate Jose Mujica appears in position to be elected the next President of Uruguay, with 48 percent of likely voters intending to support him, according to recent polls. Challenger Luis Alberto Lacalle of the National Party has stepped up an advertising campaign touting his initiatives and leadership, but it is unlikely to slow Mujica's march towards the presidency. End Summary. Polls Point to Mujica as Next President -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) With the runoff round of Uruguay's presidential elections coming November 29, the election of Frente Amplio candidate and former Tupamaro guerrilla Jose Mujica as the next President of Uruguay appears a foregone conclusion. Mujica was widely seen to have a clear advantage after the October 25 general elections, in which the FA claimed 48 percent of the vote and a majority in Parliament (Ref A). ¶3. (U) According to a survey released November 19 by polling company Interconsult, 48 percent of the Uruguayan electorate intends to vote for Mujica and running mate Danilo Astori, while 42 percent will vote for former President Luis Alberto Lacalle and his running mate Jorge Larranaga. Ten percent of the Uruguayan electorate remains undecided, giving Mujica a considerable advantage as, based on the polls, he need only win one-fifth of undecided votes in order to defeat Lacalle and claim the presidency. ¶4. (U) Mujica has been making preparations as the likely future president, including working to strengthen his credentials with the business community by emphasizing continuity with the Vazquez administration, especially regarding economic policy. This strategy was evident during a recent speech to a prominent business group, in which Mujica ceded the floor to running mate (and former Finance Minister) Astori, who detailed the economic policies that would remain in place during a Mujica administration. Lacalle Emphasizes "Equilibrium" in Last-Ditch Effort -------------- -------------- -- 
 ¶5. (SBU) At first, in his attempt to close the gap, Lacalle has emphasized the "equilibrium" that his election to the presidency would bring, as it would prevent the FA from controlling both the legislative and executive branches of government over the next five years (the FA won a parliamentary majority in general elections October 25). The Lacalle campaign's complementary strategy has been to buy television time to question Mujica's capacity for office. Some of those advertising spots have also been causing Lacalle trouble, however. One particularly emotive clip produced by the Argentinean publicist Ramiro Agulla shows an almost tearful Lacalle delivering a rousing speech to an equally stirred crowd of beautifully photographed Uruguayans listening to Lacalle's address on the radio. However, it appears that Agulla had used almost exactly the same clip for Argentine Senator Francisco de Narvaez several months earlier. The two spots are so similar that one actress appears in both, apparently just as overcome by the rhetoric of Lacalle as she was by that of Narvaez. The ad has caused widespread embarrassment, and there are critical You Tube sites dedicated to comparing the Lacalle and de Narvaez spots. ¶6. (SBU) A second approach foundered when the National Party ran an ad exclusively in the interior of the country that linked the Feldman arms cache case (Ref B) directly to Mujica. The clip, which appears designed to resemble a straight news report, makes no mention of the National Party and gives no indication that it is a political ad. Lacalle has consequently been accused by some of seeking to deceive voters in the interior. While some media sources have pointed to the involvement of Lacalle campaign chief Gustavo Penades in the ad, Lacalle himself has denied all knowledge of how it came to exist. ¶7. (SBU) Finally, in the last week or so, the Lacalle campaign has put greater emphasis on the issues, most notably in the field of fiscal policy. Lacalle is calling for the reduction of various taxes, including the personal income tax (passed during the current administration under the guidance of then Finance Minister Astori), which he seeks to eliminate progressively during his time in office, and the value-added (sales) tax, which he plans to reduce from 22 to 20 percent if elected. Bordaberry: Standing by Lacalle in Spirit -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) While Pedro Bordaberry (whose 17 percent share of the vote in October pulled the Colorado Party back from irrelevance) is not a candidate in the runoff, those who voted for him in the first round will play a pivotal role in this election, as Lacalle needs to win all of them, plus some Mujica voters, to pull an upset. Bordaberry pledged his vote to Lacalle as the first round's results came in, but his subsequent support has been somewhat more circumspect. Instead of choosing to campaign directly alongside Lacalle and Larranaga, for example, Bordaberry embarked on a separate national tour to thank local activists and explain why the National Party ticket was the best choice for their vote. Comment -------------- ¶9. (U) Analysts have been struck by the remarkably stable level of support for the two candidates in recent weeks, as well as the high level of undecided voters. There is clearly a large group of people who do not like their choices. MATTHEWMAN