URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: STRUGGLE FOR RULING COALITION

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000060

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: STRUGGLE FOR RULING COALITION
NOMINATION

REF: A. 08 MONTEVIDEO 704

B. 08 MONTEVIDEO 587


1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not
for Internet distribution.

Summary
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2. (SBU) For the first time in at least three election
cycles, Uruguay's ruling Frente Amplio (Broad Front)
coalition faces an internal struggle for the coalition's
nomination for president for the October 2009 elections.
Front-running Senators Jose Mujica and Danilo Astori are
facing an unexpected and developing challenge from two
would-be third candidates: Marcos Carambula, administrator
of Uruguay's second-largest department; and Daniel Martinez,
Minister of Industry and Energy. Polls indicate considerable
support for allowing a third candidate to compete in June
primaries. The identity of that third candidate will likely
emerge following a Socialist Party congress February 7.
Polls also show that such a candidate faces an uphill
struggle to win the primary, and would instead probably play
a spoiler's role. End Summary.

There's Space for a Third Candidate
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3. (U) Uruguay's ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition is
slowly whittling down its list of potential candidates for a
national primary election in June. Ref A reported on the
results of December's FA Congress, at which former Tupamaro
guerrilla and now Senator Jose Mujica received strong support
and was named the FA's official nominee. That designation,
however, did not slam the door on four other hopefuls, listed
here in order of the level of support each garnered at the
Congress: Marcos Carambula, governor of Uruguay's
second-largest department; Danilo Astori, senator and
President Vazquez's ex-minister of economy; Minister of
Industry and Energy Daniel Martinez; and GOU planning
director Enrique Rubio.


4. (U) For much of the past year, most local pundits
considered the quest for the FA presidential candidacy a
two-man race between Mujica and Astori. However, Astori's
poor showing at the FA Congress, where he managed only 22
percent approval, and a fear among many moderate FA
supporters that a Mujica candidacy would be too polarizing to
succeed in a general election (Ref B),have opened the door
to the other challengers. Pollsters see space for a third
candidate, with a significant proportion of FA supporters --
almost 30 percent -- either not supporting either Mujica or
Astori or indicating a willingness to consider other options.
Rubio withdrew from consideration soon after the FA
Congress, so if there is a third FA candidate it will be
either Carambula or Martinez.

The Path to Possibility
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5. (SBU) The FA is confronting a challenge -- picking a
candidate -- that it hasn't had to worry about for at least
the last three election cycles, during which President
Vazquez was always the undisputed leader going into the
process (Astori competed in the primary in 1999, but that was
only a symbolic run). Gaining the nomination of this
unwieldy coalition of over twenty political parties is
therefore a complicated process that will continue to unfold
over the coming months. The Socialist Party appears to be
the key to determining who will emerge as the FA's third
candidate. That party will have its party congress February
7, and the candidacy of whoever emerges with its backing is
expected to continue, while the loser's will likely be
stillborn.


6. (SBU) The Socialist Party itself is hotly divided.
President Vazquez resigned from the party shortly after the
Socialists came out in favor of Martinez in November. Some
party members still support Martinez, but Carambula has a
broader base of support outside of the Socialist Party, which
could lead delegates hoping for a viable third candidate to
support him. Further complicating the situation, many
Socialist leaders previously had declared for Astori.

Who Will Get Hurt?
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7. (SBU) A third candidate in any race usually ends up taking

a disproportionate amount of votes from one of his two
opponents. In this instance, many analysts consider that
both possible third candidates would siphon more votes from
Astori than from Mujica. The reasoning is that Mujica's
voting base on the far left will stick with him no matter
what, while Astori's supporters are considered less loyal.
Astori was also the face behind an unpopular tax reform
during his tenure as economy minister, so many who favor his
candidacy only because they see him as a lesser evil compared
to Mujica will be susceptible to the charms of either
possible third candidate.

Comment: A Likely Outcome
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8. (SBU) These unusual machinations are driven by the FA's
search for the strongest candidate. However, Mujica and
Astori are two of the three most popular politicians in
Uruguay (the other is President Vazquez),according to local
polling, so it would be a real surprise for another candidate
to win the primaries. It is also unlikely that the usually
disciplined FA will allow its own to engage in the sort of
mudslinging that would negatively affect any of its
candidates in the general election. Instead, many analysts
see this working out harmoniously, with the third candidate
who emerges selected as the eventual running mate of either
Mujica or Astori, thereby creating a balanced ticket with a
broader general election appeal. End Comment.

Bio Notes
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9) (SBU) Marcos Gustavo CARAMBULA Volpi: Carambula is the
intendente (a role that combines the responsibilities of
governor and mayor) of the Department of Canelones, the
second most populous of Uruguay's nineteen departments. He
was a member of the Communist Party for twenty years before
handing in his membership card in 1994, and subsequently
joined the FA's Alianza Progresista faction, currently headed
by Vice President Nin Novoa. He is a workaholic who enjoys
interaction with people, and is seen as open-minded,
tolerant, and understanding.

Apart from politics, Carambula is a medical doctor
(allergist/immunologist) who studied in Buenos Aires and
Tokyo. During Uruguay's years of dictatorship (1973-1985),
Carambula won a scholarship to Switzerland, but was denied a
passport to travel. He was president of the Sindicato
Medico, Uruguay's largest private health provider, from
2003-2005.

Carambula is married, and has four sons and a daughter.

10) (SBU) Daniel Carlos MARTINEZ Villamil: Martinez has been
Secretary of Industry and Energy since March 2008. Before
that appointment, he headed Uruguay's state-run energy,
alcohol, and cement company (ANCAP) for three years. He has
been a member of Uruguay's Socialist Party since 1973, and
has been a member of that party's executive secretariat.

Martinez earned an engineering degree from Uruguay's
University of the Republic in 1981. He has dual citizenship:
French and Uruguayan. That circumstance has not yet been a
factor in his political life. In addition to Spanish,
Martinez speaks English, Portuguese, and French.

Martinez is married, and has three daughters.
Matthewman