URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: FRENTE AMPLIO WINS PARLIAMENTARY

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000609

DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: FRENTE AMPLIO WINS PARLIAMENTARY
MAJORITY

SUMMARY
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1. (U) The ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition will retain its
majority in the Senate and Congress of Deputies following
elections October 25, defying early projections that they
would narrowly fall short of a majority. Updated vote totals
increased the FAQs share to 48.16% of the vote, just enough
for the coalition to claim 16 of 30 seats in the Senate and 50
of 99 seats in the Congress of Deputies. END SUMMARY.

FA CLINGS TO LEGISLATIVE MAJORITY
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2. (U) As of October 27, 97.8% of votes had been counted by
the Electoral Court, with the counting of Qobserved votes
(essentially absentee votes) expected to finish by the end of
the week. The Frente Amplio leads with 48.16% of the vote,
with the National Party (Blancos) in second with 28.94% and
the Colorado Party in third with 16.9%.


3. (U) In the analysis of most pollsters on election night,
the Frente Amplio was set to claim between 14 and 15 seats in
the Senate and approximately 49 votes in the Congress of
Deputies, leaving the coalition barely short of a majority in
both houses. However, the official results released by the
Electoral Court are more favorable than expected for the FA
and the coalition narrowly retained its absolute legislative
majority, winning 16 of 30 seats in the Senate and 50 of 99 in
the Congress. The FA was able to win a parliamentary majority
despite failing to claim over 50% of the vote because annulled
and blank ballots do not influence the vote totals in the
legislative race.


4. (U) The National Party finished with 9 Senators and 30
Deputies, while the Colorado Party won 5 Senate seats and 17
seats in the Congress. The Independent Party finished with 2
seats in the Congress; party leader Pablo Mieres was unable to
win a seat in the Senate.

FA GAINS IN INTERIOR
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5. (U) The resurgence of the Colorado Party had implications
for the geographical reach of the FAQs victory as well. The
coalition claimed victory in 11 of 18 departments nationwide,
adding San Jose, Rio Negro, and Colonia to the 8 departments
won by Tabare Vazquez in 2004. However, in most cases, the
Frente won with a plurality; it was only in Montevideo and
Canelones that the Frente received over 50%. The interior has
traditionally been a stronghold for the National Party.

COMMENT
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6. (SBU) While at first blush the FAQs gain of a few tenths of
a percentage of the vote appears minor, its mathematical and
psychological impact on the November 29 presidential runoff
should not be underestimated. Pollster Adolfo Garce noted in
an October 27 newspaper column that the only way that FA
candidate Jose Mujica would lose the runoff now is if
significant numbers of voters who supported him in the first
round decide to vote for Blanco candidate Luis Alberto Lacalle
in November Q a scenario that is possible but very unlikely.
In addition, with the FA now in clear control of the
parliament, many previously undecided voters might support
Mujica simply to avoid potential conflict between a National
Party executive and a Frente Amplio-majority legislature.
Blanco supporters continue to grasp for straws, but it is
undeniable that they have a very tough road ahead.