URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: FRENTE AMPLIO WINS PARLIAMENTARY

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000609 DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON UY SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: FRENTE AMPLIO WINS PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) The ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition will retain its majority in the Senate and Congress of Deputies following elections October 25, defying early projections that they would narrowly fall short of a majority. Updated vote totals increased the FAQs share to 48.16% of the vote, just enough for the coalition to claim 16 of 30 seats in the Senate and 50 of 99 seats in the Congress of Deputies. END SUMMARY. FA CLINGS TO LEGISLATIVE MAJORITY -------------- ¶2. (U) As of October 27, 97.8% of votes had been counted by the Electoral Court, with the counting of Qobserved votes (essentially absentee votes) expected to finish by the end of the week. The Frente Amplio leads with 48.16% of the vote, with the National Party (Blancos) in second with 28.94% and the Colorado Party in third with 16.9%. ¶3. (U) In the analysis of most pollsters on election night, the Frente Amplio was set to claim between 14 and 15 seats in the Senate and approximately 49 votes in the Congress of Deputies, leaving the coalition barely short of a majority in both houses. However, the official results released by the Electoral Court are more favorable than expected for the FA and the coalition narrowly retained its absolute legislative majority, winning 16 of 30 seats in the Senate and 50 of 99 in the Congress. The FA was able to win a parliamentary majority despite failing to claim over 50% of the vote because annulled and blank ballots do not influence the vote totals in the legislative race. ¶4. (U) The National Party finished with 9 Senators and 30 Deputies, while the Colorado Party won 5 Senate seats and 17 seats in the Congress. The Independent Party finished with 2 seats in the Congress; party leader Pablo Mieres was unable to win a seat in the Senate. FA GAINS IN INTERIOR -------------- ¶5. (U) The resurgence of the Colorado Party had implications for the geographical reach of the FAQs victory as well. The coalition claimed victory in 11 of 18 departments nationwide, adding San Jose, Rio Negro, and Colonia to the 8 departments won by Tabare Vazquez in 2004. However, in most cases, the Frente won with a plurality; it was only in Montevideo and Canelones that the Frente received over 50%. The interior has traditionally been a stronghold for the National Party. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) While at first blush the FAQs gain of a few tenths of a percentage of the vote appears minor, its mathematical and psychological impact on the November 29 presidential runoff should not be underestimated. Pollster Adolfo Garce noted in an October 27 newspaper column that the only way that FA candidate Jose Mujica would lose the runoff now is if significant numbers of voters who supported him in the first round decide to vote for Blanco candidate Luis Alberto Lacalle in November Q a scenario that is possible but very unlikely. In addition, with the FA now in clear control of the parliament, many previously undecided voters might support Mujica simply to avoid potential conflict between a National Party executive and a Frente Amplio-majority legislature. Blanco supporters continue to grasp for straws, but it is undeniable that they have a very tough road ahead.