URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: STRUGGLE FOR RULING COALITION

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000060 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR UY SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: STRUGGLE FOR RULING COALITION NOMINATION REF: A. 08 MONTEVIDEO 704 ¶B. 08 MONTEVIDEO 587 ¶1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not for Internet distribution. Summary - - - - ¶2. (SBU) For the first time in at least three election cycles, Uruguay's ruling Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition faces an internal struggle for the coalition's nomination for president for the October 2009 elections. Front-running Senators Jose Mujica and Danilo Astori are facing an unexpected and developing challenge from two would-be third candidates: Marcos Carambula, administrator of Uruguay's second-largest department; and Daniel Martinez, Minister of Industry and Energy. Polls indicate considerable support for allowing a third candidate to compete in June primaries. The identity of that third candidate will likely emerge following a Socialist Party congress February 7. Polls also show that such a candidate faces an uphill struggle to win the primary, and would instead probably play a spoiler's role. End Summary. There's Space for a Third Candidate - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (U) Uruguay's ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition is slowly whittling down its list of potential candidates for a national primary election in June. Ref A reported on the results of December's FA Congress, at which former Tupamaro guerrilla and now Senator Jose Mujica received strong support and was named the FA's official nominee. That designation, however, did not slam the door on four other hopefuls, listed here in order of the level of support each garnered at the Congress: Marcos Carambula, governor of Uruguay's second-largest department; Danilo Astori, senator and President Vazquez's ex-minister of economy; Minister of Industry and Energy Daniel Martinez; and GOU planning director Enrique Rubio. ¶4. (U) For much of the past year, most local pundits considered the quest for the FA presidential candidacy a two-man race between Mujica and Astori. However, Astori's poor showing at the FA Congress, where he managed only 22 percent approval, and a fear among many moderate FA supporters that a Mujica candidacy would be too polarizing to succeed in a general election (Ref B),have opened the door to the other challengers. Pollsters see space for a third candidate, with a significant proportion of FA supporters -- almost 30 percent -- either not supporting either Mujica or Astori or indicating a willingness to consider other options. Rubio withdrew from consideration soon after the FA Congress, so if there is a third FA candidate it will be either Carambula or Martinez. The Path to Possibility - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) The FA is confronting a challenge -- picking a candidate -- that it hasn't had to worry about for at least the last three election cycles, during which President Vazquez was always the undisputed leader going into the process (Astori competed in the primary in 1999, but that was only a symbolic run). Gaining the nomination of this unwieldy coalition of over twenty political parties is therefore a complicated process that will continue to unfold over the coming months. The Socialist Party appears to be the key to determining who will emerge as the FA's third candidate. That party will have its party congress February 7, and the candidacy of whoever emerges with its backing is expected to continue, while the loser's will likely be stillborn. ¶6. (SBU) The Socialist Party itself is hotly divided. President Vazquez resigned from the party shortly after the Socialists came out in favor of Martinez in November. Some party members still support Martinez, but Carambula has a broader base of support outside of the Socialist Party, which could lead delegates hoping for a viable third candidate to support him. Further complicating the situation, many Socialist leaders previously had declared for Astori. Who Will Get Hurt? - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) A third candidate in any race usually ends up taking a disproportionate amount of votes from one of his two opponents. In this instance, many analysts consider that both possible third candidates would siphon more votes from Astori than from Mujica. The reasoning is that Mujica's voting base on the far left will stick with him no matter what, while Astori's supporters are considered less loyal. Astori was also the face behind an unpopular tax reform during his tenure as economy minister, so many who favor his candidacy only because they see him as a lesser evil compared to Mujica will be susceptible to the charms of either possible third candidate. Comment: A Likely Outcome - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) These unusual machinations are driven by the FA's search for the strongest candidate. However, Mujica and Astori are two of the three most popular politicians in Uruguay (the other is President Vazquez),according to local polling, so it would be a real surprise for another candidate to win the primaries. It is also unlikely that the usually disciplined FA will allow its own to engage in the sort of mudslinging that would negatively affect any of its candidates in the general election. Instead, many analysts see this working out harmoniously, with the third candidate who emerges selected as the eventual running mate of either Mujica or Astori, thereby creating a balanced ticket with a broader general election appeal. End Comment. Bio Notes - - - - - 9) (SBU) Marcos Gustavo CARAMBULA Volpi: Carambula is the intendente (a role that combines the responsibilities of governor and mayor) of the Department of Canelones, the second most populous of Uruguay's nineteen departments. He was a member of the Communist Party for twenty years before handing in his membership card in 1994, and subsequently joined the FA's Alianza Progresista faction, currently headed by Vice President Nin Novoa. He is a workaholic who enjoys interaction with people, and is seen as open-minded, tolerant, and understanding. Apart from politics, Carambula is a medical doctor (allergist/immunologist) who studied in Buenos Aires and Tokyo. During Uruguay's years of dictatorship (1973-1985), Carambula won a scholarship to Switzerland, but was denied a passport to travel. He was president of the Sindicato Medico, Uruguay's largest private health provider, from 2003-2005. Carambula is married, and has four sons and a daughter. 10) (SBU) Daniel Carlos MARTINEZ Villamil: Martinez has been Secretary of Industry and Energy since March 2008. Before that appointment, he headed Uruguay's state-run energy, alcohol, and cement company (ANCAP) for three years. He has been a member of Uruguay's Socialist Party since 1973, and has been a member of that party's executive secretariat. Martinez earned an engineering degree from Uruguay's University of the Republic in 1981. He has dual citizenship: French and Uruguayan. That circumstance has not yet been a factor in his political life. In addition to Spanish, Martinez speaks English, Portuguese, and French. Martinez is married, and has three daughters. Matthewman