Uruguayan Elections: Counting Down to October 25

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000595 DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON UY SUBJECT: Uruguayan Elections: Counting Down to October 25 REF: A. MONTEVIDEO 560, B. MONTEVIDEO 409 AND PREVIOUS, C. MONTEVIDEO 298 Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) With Uruguayans voting October 25, local polling indicates that the two leading presidential candidates are running in place or even losing ground. A second round seems likely, as neither ruling Frente Amplio coalition candidate Jose Mujica nor National Party candidate Luis Lacalle appears likely to receive the fifty percent plus one required to win Uruguay's presidency in a first round. This election is significant even if a second round is necessary, however, as each partyQs respective share of the vote will determine the balance of power in parliament for the duration for the next administration. END SUMMARY. HOW THE NUMBERS LOOK -------------- ¶2. (U) As the October 25 election looms, the majority of polling on the respective fortunes of the leading parties appears to have settled on a ruling Frente Amplio coalition (FA) vote of around 43-45 percent, with the main opposition National Party total of around 29-31 percent. The National Party figures are down from a height of 38 percent in June. Curiously, the number of persons claiming to be undecided or willing to cast blank votes is rising as the campaigns close, and is now around 10-12 percent. Both the third-place Colorado party and fourth-place Independent Party are performing better than many analysts had predicted earlier in the campaign, with totals of 13-15 percent and 3 percent, respectively. Although a spokesman for the polling company Cifra opined that it is still possible for Mujica to win in the first round, most analysts believe the FA is unlikely to secure over 50 percent, the minimum necessary to avoid a run- off scenario. While some second round predictions have been carried out (with Mujica ahead in some and Lacalle in others), polling for such a scenario has not yet been systematic enough to identify a definite trend. Most observers feel that, in a run-off, National Party candidate Luis Alberto Lacalle will be the beneficiary of a large percentage of votes that go to the Colorado or Independent parties in the first round. SELF-INFLICTED WOUNDS AND POTSHOTS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) This race for the presidency has focused more on character and personality and less on issues then many Uruguayans had hoped. It has also been defined by a number of self-inflicted injuries. The media and public alike have focused on the variety of slip-ups, fumbles and gaffes on display over the duration of the campaign. This has been particularly surprising in the case of Lacalle, an ex- president and highly experienced politician who appeared to squander a strong start with some highly divisive statements that were gleefully seized upon by the opposition. Whether declaring he was going to take a chainsaw to public spending, recommending the poor shower more regularly, or labeling the impoverished beneficiaries of the government social support scheme Qscroungers,Q he has seemed at best careless. ¶4. (U) MujicaQs less-refined reputation has, to an extent, prevented his gaffes from generating much fall-out. Still, his mishaps have not been without cost. Musings on the justice of his own guerilla past and suggestions that the land belongs to the state have both caused consternation, but MuijcaQs most dramatic faux pas was the recent publication of interviews (Reftel A)in which he appeared to blast both his own party and the Argentine government. The resulting embarrassment did nothing to help the already fractious relationship between Mujica and current president Vazquez, who during a visit to the U.S. characterized Mujica's comments as "stupidities." Mujica subsequently absented himself from from several high profile government events, most noticeably the recent opening of MontevideoQs new airport and, on another occasion, a new port terminal. THE OUTLOOK IN PARLIAMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Although most of the local media attention is focused on the fight for the presidency, the October 25 vote is much more than just the first round of a race for the top job. The votes obtained decide the make-up of the next parliament regardless of which partyQs candidate heads the executive office. Presently, the FA enjoys an overall majority in the general assembly of 53 percent, but if the recent polling figures were to become a parliamentary reality, no one party would have an absolute majority in parliament. In such a situation, smaller parties such as the Colorados and the Independent party would gain importance. ¶6. (U) A less likely alternative could see the FA failing to gain the over fifty percent majority required to avoid a run- off but still clinch an absolute parliamentary majority. This seemingly contradictory outcome rests on the fact that while the presidential vote is calculated according to the number of recorded voters (i.e. it includes blank and annulled ballots), the parliamentary vote is calculated according to the number of legitimate votes actually returned (i.e. blank or annulled ballots donQt count). Given the current closeness of the race, a couple of percentage pointsQ worth of blank or annulled ballots could make a real difference. One political analyst, assuming a blank/annulled vote of around 2.5 percent, calculates that FA could actually score a parliamentary majority if they reach 48.8 percent in the first round. While such a scenario would make life easier for a Muijca administration, it also leaves open the possibility of a Lacalle presidency attempting to operate with a FA parliamentary majority. ¶7. (SBU) October 25 not only decides the division of power between the parties but also between the factions within them. With polling generally focused on the big picture, the internal political landscape is harder to predict. For the FA, much depends on whether MujicaQs MPP (Popular Movement Party) faction maintains or increases its one-third share of FA seats. With the FA coalition already under strain, a shift in the power balance might further expose cracks that could widen after the election, irrespective as to who holds the presidency. In the case of the National Party, ex-rivals Lacalle and Larranaga have put on a good show of solidarity during the campaign (Reftel B),and while Lacalle will head the party no matter who wins, LarrangaQs more moderate profile may enable him to attract more votes. His Alianza National (National Alliance) faction already holds over twice the number of seats as LacalleQs Unidad National (National Unity) faction and, if the National Party candidates were to lose in their presidential bid, Larranaga, who is younger than Lacalle and still has presidential ambitions, may not expend too much energy on preserving a good relationship. THE REFERENDA -------------- ¶8. (U) Also of interest on October 25 is the outcome of two public referenda. One will decide whether to repeal Uruguay's amnesty law (Ley de Caducidad Q reftel C) that protects police and military personal from prosecution for acts committed under the auspices of the dictatorship, and the other on whether to allow an absentee vote (by mail) for Uruguayan expatriates. The FA, whose ranks contain many ex-Tupamaro guerilla fighters and which also stands to gain more from absentee voting, is broadly pro both referenda, while the traditional parties are broadly against them. Despite support for these issues dividing more-or-less on party lines however, neither issue has played a significant role in the campaigns and, unlike the election proper, citizens are not legally obliged to participate. Polling on both the referenda has been close, indicating an uncertain outcome for both referenda. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (U) When the FA won its first-ever presidential election in 2004, polling showed FA candidate (now president) Tabare Vazquez making a late surge that allowed him to close just over fifty percent. We have not seen a similar surge from Mujica, so the temptation is to predict a second round. However, this is the first election with the FA in the incumbent's role after generations of traditional party dominance, and no one can confidently predict how much of Vazquez's considerable popularity and proven achievements will benefit Mujica. END COMMENT.