URUGUAY: BORDABERRY: LOOKING FAR BEYOND OCTOBER 25

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000592 DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON UY SUBJECT: URUGUAY: BORDABERRY: LOOKING FAR BEYOND OCTOBER 25 REF: MONTEVIDEO 314 ¶1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not for Internet distribution. SUMMARY - - - - ¶2. (U) With the electoral coverage mostly focused on frontrunners Luis Alberto Lacalle and Jose Mujica, the presidential electionQs third place contender, Colorado Party candidate Pedro Bordaberry, is taking the longer view. Aware that a shot at the presidency is highly unlikely at this juncture, Bordaberry has instead made productive use of the electoral season to stand the Colorados back on their feet following their shattering electoral defeat in 2004. In a well-organized, disciplined and focused campaign, Bordaberry has largely succeeded in presenting the Colorado as a renovated and politically engaged party equipped with a forward thinking program. The party appears not only confident that it can reclaim many of the votes lost to the Frente Amplio (FA) coalition and National (Blanco) party in the last election, but is also hopeful that it will be able to reach out to younger voters. With Mujica and Lacalle locked in a relatively tight and increasingly bitter race for the finish line, and with a second round likely, the political value of BordaberryQs relatively modest share of the vote continues to swell. Bordaberry is optimistic that careful management of this advantage will enable him to reposition the Colorados for a possible 2014 presidential bid. END SUMMARY. REBUILDING THE PARTY -------------- ¶3. (SBU) As the two main presidential candidates stagger to a likely second round with their hands around each others throats, Colorado Pedro Bordaberry appears to be the only candidate actively gaining support. While BordaberryQs recent rallying call that it would be Qgreat to win in the second half of the match with 47 minutes on the clockQ is not a serious expression of his chances (the Colorados currently command only 12 percent of the vote),it nevertheless indicates a sense of revival that appears to have life beyond political rhetoric. Until recently however the notion of the Colorado recovery was very much open to question; once the countryQs dominant political force, the Colorados ran Uruguay for much of the 20th century but were all but obliterated in 2004 when they returned just 10 percent of the vote. The fallout was profound, much of the party machinery collapsed 
and the Colorados, already riven by lengthy and destructive power struggle between two aging party patriarchs, 73 year old Julio Mara Sanguinetti and 81 year old Jorge Batlle, continued to hemorrhage support. Over the last two years however, Bordaberry and his QVamos UruguayQ (LetQs Go Uruguay) faction, have forged a Qnew centralismQ (reftel) which has arrested partyQs decline and appears to offer the real promise of long-term political rehabilitation. THE YOUNG MAN FOR THE JOB -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Bordaberry is very much the Colorados young lion. His confident, skilled and forward thinking leadership has enabled him to overcome the negative associations of his surname (his father's presidency led directly to Uruguay's 1973-85 dictatorship) and begin the process of reuniting his party. In contrast to the array of gaffs, embarrassments and bickering that have characterized much of his rivals campaigns, Bordaberry has headed an orderly, sober but imaginative operation that has seen him generate a gradual but steady amount of support. There have been two main targets for BordaberryQs campaign. First those voters, once loyal to the Colorado cause, who shifted to the FA or Blancos in the last election. By presenting the Colorados as a politically viable entity again, Bordaberry plans to encourage them return to the fold, a hope made explicit by recent Colorado publicity centered on the notion of Qvotes coming home.Q The second target audience is young voters. A legacy of the ColoradoQs near collapse is that the partyQs demographic has aged while younger voters have been drawn to the FA and Blancos. As an energetic 49 year-old, Bordaberry offers a sprightly contrast to the 74 year-old Mujica and the 68 year-old Lacalle. Far from playing off the ColoradoQs heritage of almost constant political dominance, Bordaberry has instead presented himself as the new wave candidate, claiming that although this is the FrenteQs first term in office, their aging leadership represents not the beginning of a political project but the end of a political generation. BordaberryQs bid for the youth was made explicit with smart selection of the wisely admired soccer star, Hugo de Leon as his running mate. A MAN WITH A PLAN -------------- ¶5. (SBU) With sustained long-term political growth in mind, Bordaberry has angled his campaign to present himself as a serious policy-centered candidate. He has proudly underlined this ambition with a 250-page government program, prepared over two and a half years by numerous political experts. It is not only the weight and depth of the tome that sets the program apart, but also the artful positioning of education right at the front of the agenda. With the FA and Blancos currently locking horns over public security and social programs, this has allowed Bordaberry to stake out political territory that is not only under populated but also adroitly focused on long term development. In harmony with this forward-thinking strategic approach, Bordaberry used a recent speech to turn around the common observation that Uruguay is a small entity surrounded on both sides by giants: acknowledging Brazil as a neighboring power-house, he described the relationship as one of opportunity allowing Uruguay to shape regional politics for its own benefit. ELECTION PROSPECTS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) While the Colorado campaign is nominally being run under the auspices of a presidential bid, in reality BordaberryQs is focusing firmly on increasing the Colorado presence in Parliament. Current polling figures suggest that whoever wins the election, voting will be tight enough to create a parliament in which no party has a clear majority, circumstances that would offer a party with even relatively modest presence a good deal of high-profile political leverage. Accordingly, recent Colorado publicity has sought to maximize his political capital by recalibrating the Colorado effort around the notion of Qputting a good team in parliament.Q This emphasizes the fact that although a vote for the Colorados will not put Bordaberry in the top job, it remains nevertheless a politically potent choice, capable of having a direct influence on government policy. ¶7. (SBU) By capturing some of the undecided voters, Bordaberry and his team are shooting for at least 15-16 percent of the vote on October 25. Irrespective of the final tally however, it seems likely that Bordaberry will reap an improvement on the Colorados meager 2004 electoral haul. It is also likely that of the three Colorado lists in play for Senator and Deputy seats, his list will get the largest amount of support and Bordaberry will become senator. Old guard Colorados Sanguinetti and Batlle have joined forces to field a list headed by their men Luis Amorin Batlle (a cousin) and Tabere Viera and are likely to attract a fair amount of votes. The third list, headed by Alberto Iglesias may feature as an also ran. Aside from generally increasing Colorado presence in parliament, a strong showing by BordaberryQs faction (he is counting on over 50 percent of the Colorado vote) would cement his position as party leader and finally relegate Batlle and Sanguinetti to the roles of respected, but retired party elders. THE SECOND ROUND AND BEYOND -------------- ¶8. (SBU) It is generally assumed that in the case of a run-off election, any political advantage the Colorados can glean would accrue to the BlancosQ favor. While this will probably prove to be the case, Bordaberry has nevertheless been working hard to present the Colorado party as a wholly independent entity. He has maintained a more-or-less nonpartisan profile in public; complaining that LacalleQs and MujicaQs recent conduct has insulted the electorate and calling for an end to ideological conflict. After the October 25 round Bordaberry has signaled that his overwhelming interest is in influencing policy, particularly in the areas of education, security and social development, areas in which he believes his program has well developed contributions to make. Reaching a satisfactory agreement with Lacalle in these areas would likely allow Bordaberry to support Lacalle strongly in a run-off. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (SBU). Unlike his rivals in the campaign, Bordaberry has studiously avoided political missteps, and has managed to maintain a clean political image despite the burden of the Bordaberry name and efforts to drag him down. A mixture of political skill and fortuitous circumstance has left Bordaberry in a potentially strong position which, if consolidated, could form a platform for future growth and (he hopes) see him emerge as a very real contender in 2014. End Comment.