Uruguay Presidential Campaign Programs Released

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000572 DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON UY SUBJECT: Uruguay Presidential Campaign Programs Released Summary -------------- ¶1. After months of campaigning, in September, leading Uruguayan presidential candidates Jose Mujica and Luis Alberto Lacalle released their respective proposals for government. As both documents make clear, the fight for votes continues to be concentrated on the political middle ground. Consequently, there is a striking degree of overlap between the two documents, although LacalleQs National (Blanco) Party document is notable for setting its horizons beyond MERCOSUR while MujicaQs ruling Frente Amplio (FA) proposal includes specific targets for some aspects of economic and social development. End Summary. Two Documents, One Target -------------- ¶2. Weeks away from the October 25 national poll, analysts continue to predict an exceptionally close election. With the latest polls suggesting that the number of undecided voters has risen to a record 12 percent, tension continues to build in a race which, despite the polarized political profiles of the candidates, remains largely focused on capturing voters in the center. ¶3. Both parties recently released extensive proposals for government after months of campaigning. The Frente AmplioQs QElectoral PlatformQ, published September 20, is structured around the notion that the governmentQs initial five years has been a success and that they would like to offer more of the same. The document lists the governmentQs accomplishments in the relevant area, then offers proposals to extend and deepen these advances. Meanwhile, the BlancosQ QGovernment Program 2010-15Q, released August 27, faces the challenge of presenting a distinct and credible program to set against a popular administration. Over three times longer than the FA document, the Blanco proposal arranges its conservative themes of independence, justice and prosperity around more traditional chapter headings such as economy, production and social development. Both documents make bold but broad claims for significant national investments, but the FA document occasionally punctures the fuzziness of aspiration with specific targets for training, housing and employment. MERCOSUR and the Wider Region -------------- ¶4. Both parties argue for improvements in the regional integration mechanism, Mercosur. The FA pushes for consolidation and extension of the institution. In contrast, while LacalleQs proposal acknowledges the importance of regional trade and aims to deepen MERCOSUR as a trade body, it is much more explicit in calling for commerce beyond the bounds of the trading block, proposing, amongst other things, to exploit commercial agreements with Mexico in order trade with NAFTA. It emphatically rejects any political role for MERCOSUR and, furthermore, appears to set itself against the recently created UNASUR (which the FA pledges to support), declaring that a Lacalle government will actively oppose any political organisms Qsuch as UNASURQ who Qwork against regional unityQ and Qthreaten IndependenceQ. Economic Policy -------------- ¶5. Both the FA and Blanco documents present variations of an active, market-friendly economy with a social focus. MujicaQs campaign, buoyed by the countryQs five years of economic growth, stresses economic continuity with President VazquezQs administration while pledging to deepen social support. The FA program confidently projects an economic growth rate of 30 percent over the duration of their potential 2010-2015 administration. It also sets out a policy of national debt reduction and an investment increase of 30 percent of GDP. Tax-wise, a Mujica administration would look for ways to ensure that Qthose who have more contribute moreQ, and promises to knock two points off VAT. Tax breaks will also be used to incentivize companies to train their staff. Additionally, the FA document pledges the creation of 200,000 new jobs. ¶6. Despite the public objections to privatization plans during LacalleQs 1990-95 administration, his pro-business reputation and association with a time of relative prosperity provide Lacalle with a firm footing from which to advocate economic policy. However, he has been careful to declare that he has pragmatically adjusted his polities to meet the realities of Uruguay as it is today. The most obvious shifts are seen in a higher profile for social programs, a focus on Qde-monopolizationQ of state utilities rather than their privatization, and the promise to uphold the current system of tripartite wage negotiations between the government, business leaders and unions. Note: Lacalle had an extremely fractious relationship with the unions during his term in office. End note. Macro-economically, the Blanco program sets no specific targets but instead advocates growth though the maintenance of stable prices and equilibrium in the balance of payments. Arguably the most eye-catching element of the LacalleQs proposals is the slow phasing out and eventual elimination of the income tax established by MujicaQs running mate and ex- finance minister Danilo Astori in 2007, which remains widely reviled amongst the middle class. Security -------------- ¶7. Public security, long a source of mounting concern amongst Uruguayans, has flowered into a hot topic for the 2009 elections. In broad figures, crime has been on the rise since the countryQs return to democracy in 1985, but, according to Ministry of the Interior, the increase has been less precipitous in recent years, with sexual assaults and thefts actually declining since 2005. Nevertheless, in the mind of much of the public, not only is the general trend up but it is rising sharply. Having loudly identified security as the Qprincipal problem currently facing the countryQ, LacalleQs promise of a Qfirm handQ is clearly visible in his proposal for government. The program offers a package of measures that include reducing the age to be tried as a juvenile from 18 to 16; creating a National Juvenile Rehabilitation centre; expanding the existing National Guard to create a National Republican Guard with national jurisdiction; creating a National Prisons Institute; improving rehabilitation facilities in the prison system; increasing police wages; improving police procedures and instituting a National Rehabilitation Centre for drug addicts. The measures also include transferring 200 positions connected to public security from the Ministry of Defense to the Ministry of the Interior. ¶8. Meanwhile, Mujica has had the difficult task of balancing the FA security record with the need to reassure the electorate that the FA is aware that more could be done. MujicaQs initial engagement with the theme was bullish, declaring that tourists are drawn to Uruguay because the streets are safe and that the Blanco PartyQs comments to the contrary were an act of QsabotageQ. Nevertheless, following a poll that found that just under half the electorate felt the government had done nothing to address public security, the FA conceded that improvements had been QmodestQ and went on to present a range of compensatory measures as part their Electoral Platform. These include: doubling the public security budget; increasing the numbers of police officers; improving police training; community participation in citizen security round tables; deploying the National Guard to combat serious crime; and developing a national policy on social violence. Causal factors are addressed with the promise that, of the 200,000 new jobs to be created, 40,000 will be for young adults between the ages of 18 and 29. The FA also vows to continue the struggle against drugs. Social Support and Development -------------- ¶9. On July 28, Enrique Rubio the director of the Office of Budget and Planning (OPP) announced that some 400,000 Uruguayans had been lifted out of poverty between 2005 and 2008, an achievement he attributed to the FAQs tax reforms and family government benefits. These seemingly impressive statistics combined with the high profile success story of the governmentQs QPlan CeibalQ (in which every school-age child was presented with a laptop) have strengthened the FAQs image as a socially conscious party and make gaining ground in this area a challenge for Lacalle. An early Lacalle promise to Qtake a buzzsawQ to public spending did little to aid his new socially conscious image, but the Blanco campaign declares that a credible program of social support plays a key role in their electoral chances. ¶10. The National Party document promises focused social support for families, women, the poor, adults, children and adolescents, some of which appears to consist of updating or adjusting current programs. The most notable different is LacalleQs proposal to require the planQs beneficiaries to participate in public works in exchange for state support. Otherwise, the aspirations of both sets of proposals are more or less the same. Both parties aim to reduce poverty: the BlancosQ announced a goal of Qzero povertyQ while the FA set a slightly more modest target of ending poverty for 350,000 people. As part of this drive, both parties focus on housing. Mujica had already stated that his government would begin the construction of homes in at least 15 locations within the first 15 days of his presidency. His proposal for government expands on this with the more ample promise of 70,000-80,000 homes for young families. The Blancos pledge to replace poor quality or unhealthy housing with pre-fabricated homes, but, in contrast to the FA, plan to redirect funds to providing affordable credit rather than direct construction. Both campaigns offer to improve health care, with Mujica aiming to ensure a universal standard of provision and Lacalle proposing the creation of National Institute for Trauma and Rehabilitation as well as the construction of two new hospitals, one of which would be located in the relatively impoverished El Cerro district of the city. ¶11. Both programs make broad assertions about the need to improve the quality of basic education and extend support for the countryQs youth in particular by creating full-time schools. The FA program promises 10,000 courses and some 25,000 education grants)while the Blanco proposals include promises to help find work for those who abandon formal education, providing incentives to companies offering employment for the young and start a program to support teenage mothers. LacalleQs government plan places a clear emphasis on training and commerce centered on information technology and proposes the establishment of a polytechnic system to support this aim. He also promises to build 300,000 schools. Comment -------------- ¶12. Because the differences in the two programs are fairly subtle in many cases, the electorate appears to be judging the candidates on their values and personal qualities. The voters continue to try to sort out who will best be suited to meet these challenges. End comment.