URUGUAY: LUNCH WITH COLORADO PARTY PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MONTEVIDEO 000440

SIPDIS

WHA/BSC FOR MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAY: LUNCH WITH COLORADO PARTY PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE PEDRO BORDABERRY

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Alfred Schandlbauer
for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)

Summary
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1. (SBU) On July 20, Charge met with Colorado Presidential
candidate Pedro Bordaberry and four of his closest aides.
Bordaberry, who currently polls around 10-12 percent, was
realistic about his chances for victory this year, but
believes he is setting the foundation for a victory as early
as 2014. He plans to play a kingmaker role during this
election, noting that his bloc of voters will choose the
winner in the likely event of a run-off election between the
Blanco Party and ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition
candidates. Borbaberry seems to have put aside the 170-year
rivalry between Blancos (the National Party) and Colorados,
and was extremely critical of the FA. End summary.

New Beginnings for the Colorados
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2. (SBU) The Colorados, who have led the country with only a
few interruptions since Uruguay's independence, are currently
at their lowest level of popularity in history, with support
from only around 10 percent of the population. While the
party's support had been slipping for decades, its
precipitous decline was brought on by what most Uruguayans
feel was mismanagement during a severe economic crisis in
2002, and exacerbated by ancient leadership that many
Uruguayans believe has been stuck in the past. While some
analysts believe that the party is on an irreversible
downward trajectory, Bordaberry sees his overwhelming victory
-- over three-quarters of Colorado voters chose him as the
party's presidential candidate -- over others backed by the
party's giants (two ex-presidents) in recent primary
elections as cause for optimism. He believes that at this
point the Colorado Party has an advantage because it is now
the only mainstream Uruguayan party not weighed down by
dinosaurs. With that in mind, Bordaberry is beginning his
2014 campaign now.


3. (SBU) Bordaberry's key goal is to rebuild the party by
engaging young voters and to retrieve the socialist-minded
Battlista voters that were lost to the FA last round. His
primary tool is the Colorado Foundation, a think tank
designed to reach out to voters across the spectrum,
especially in the interior and among youth. He takes pride
in doing things differently from the other parties, for
example, in his (unprecedented in Uruguay) choice of a former
soccer star and head coach, Hugo de Leon, for his vice
presidential candidate.

Colorados: The Tiebreakers
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4. (C) Bordaberry is playing to win, but ultimately will join
forces with Lacalle to beat Mujica in the case of a run-off.
He projects that his 10 percent support could grow to between
16 and 18 percent by October, making him an even more
important factor in the final outcome. Also, in addition to
running for President, Bordaberry is running for senator and
Colorado Party president, both of which will solidify his
political future.


5. (C) The age-old rivalry between Uruguay's traditional two
parties, the Blancos and Colorados, has generally been
cooperative and occasionally friendly over recent years and
since the emergence of the Frente Amplio (FA) coalition of
leftist parties in the 1970s, the traditional parties have
generally stuck together in the face of what they perceive to
be a common adversary. In the event of a runoff, the
Colorados would endorse Blanco candidate Luis Alberto Lacalle
(septel) in a way Bordaberry described as non-traditional.
That is, Bordaberry said that instead of asking for key
political appointments in exchange for Colorado support at
the polls, Bordaberry would demand influence over key policy
decisions. Bordaberry did not explain how this policy
influence would materialize without Colorados in the
government to promote it, however.

Democratic Values at Risk?
--------------


6. (C) Bordaberry had a mixed assessment of the Vazquez
government, giving credit for the expansion of Montevideo's
port and its implementation of Plan Ceibal, the
one-laptop-per-child program. Bordaberry expressed concern
with what he considers to be the extremist ideology of FA
candidate Jose Mujica and his supporting team. Bordaberry

lamented that what he described as their Cold War rhetoric
and policies are completely out of date and inappropriate to
present circumstances. He also feared that Mujica's
inexperience could result in a tendency to value the
attainment of a particular end over democratic institutions.
He said he felt that in general a Mujica-led government would
be more likely to take shortcuts to implement policies --
shortcuts that would circumvent or otherwise harm or
marginalize Uruguay's constitution and other power-checking
institutions. Bordaberry's criticisms of current government
policies included the GOU stance on public security (he noted
that the current government doesn't believe in authority,
hence finds it difficult to enforce the law),education (not
one of those present sends his children to public school),
and that the FA's social policies that provide hand-outs
rather than work opportunities.

Bordaberry: Up Close and Personal
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7. (SBU) Bordaberry, once a prominent rugby player, is an
engaging speaker with a mild and friendly manner. He is
simultaneously quick and pensive, and his English is
excellent. He has the full respect of his aides, and does
most of the talking with them supporting him as needed. The
rapport among the team was excellent.


8. (SBU) Bordaberry is considering a trip to the U.S. in
September. He is hoping for September 22-23 but is flexible.
He has asked for meetings at the assistant secretary level.

Schandlbauer