Uruguay: Macroeconomic Roundup

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000388 STATE PASS TREASURY FOR BLINDQUIST SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ETRD EFIN UY SUBJECT: Uruguay: Macroeconomic Roundup Ref: Montevideo 0074 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. Uruguay's economy grew 2.3 percent in QI/09 over QI/2008. Despite the year-over-year increase, the economy is now shrinking, and seasonally-adjusted GDP dropped 2.9 percent in QI/2009 from QIV/08. Analysts expect GDP to continue falling in the second quarter and zero to slightly negative growth for the rest of the year. The cooling of the economy, combined with lower commodity prices, has brought inflation back down to manageable levels from recent peaks approaching ten percent. Both lower inflation and a stronger dollar have resulted in a recovery of competitiveness, which had fallen in January and February. Furthermore, lower inflation enabled the GOU to cut its reference interest rate by 100 basis points to stimulate aggregate demand, and it gives the GOU potential leeway to increase the prices of government-provided utilities as necessary to balance its rapidly-deteriorating fiscal accounts. Nevertheless, given the large stock of international reserves and the credit lines it has secured with international financial institutions, the GOU should have no problem in financing its deficit or accumulated debt. While the global crisis has taken a big toll on foreign trade, the local banking system remains unaffected. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- GDP FELL IN QI/09; EXPECTED TO FALL AGAIN IN QII/09 -------------- -------------- ¶2. Uruguay's GDP rose 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2009 over the same period of 2008. Central Bank President Mario Bergara stressed the news, saying that Uruguay was "one of the few countries internationally that continues showing positive growth figures." NOTE: Argentina was the only other country in the Southern Cone with higher year-over-year GDP growth. END NOTE. However, despite this increase, the economy slowed in the first quarter of 2009 over the fourth quarter of 2008 by 2.9 per cent on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This drop in GDP was the first since mid-2004 and exceeded earlier GOU predictions of a 1.3 percent drop. The downturn was widespread and all sectors contracted (except for electricity, gas and water, and construction). On top of the global economic crisis, Uruguay has suffered from a drought that has taken a toll on cattle and electricity production. The GOU estimates that at least 0.5 percent of the 2.9 percent drop is due to the drought. In a June 16 radio interview Bergara tried to play down the decline, arguing that the fourth quarter of 2008 was a very high basis of comparison but at the same time acknowledging that the economy is "decelerating significantly." Private analysts expect the GDP to continue falling in the second quarter at a lower rate, followed by zero or slightly negative growth for the rest of 2009. -------------- INFLATION IS DOWN, COMPETITIVENESS UP -------------- ¶3. In January, with inflation dangerously close to a 10 percent threshold that would trigger automatic salary adjustments, the Central Bank increased its reference interest rate from 7.75 percent to 10.0 percent (reftel). The implementation of a tighter monetary policy, together with significantly lower export prices, brought inflation down to 6.6 percent in May (year on year). A cooler economy and weaker domestic demand stemming from slightly higher unemployment also helped alleviate inflation. Given the drop in inflation, and in order to try to pump up the economy, on June 22 the Central Bank cut its reference rate back to 8.0 percent. Analysts expect the drop the reference rate will increase the price of the dollar and help exporters, whose competitiveness has in fact risen from March to May, especially compared to major trade partners Brazil and Mexico. -------------- LIMITED IMPACT ON WAGES AND EMPLOYMENT -------------- ¶4. The economic downturn has had a limited impact on Uruguay's labor market. Employment, which despite the global recession had risen robustly in the last quarter of 2008, fell between January and April 2009. In turn, the unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent in April 2009, which is above April 2008 (7.6 percent),but still low by Uruguayan standards. The first four months of 2009 have been better from the labor standpoint (higher employment and lower unemployment) than the first fourth months of 2008. Despite higher unemployment, real wages continue growing, particularly in the public sector (9.2 percent growth accumulated from January to May 2009 over January to May 2008). Private sector wages rose 4.4 percent in the same period. -------------- BOTH EXPORTS AND IMPORTS DROP -------------- ¶5. Exports of goods and services increased 1.5 percent in real terms in the first quarter of 2009 (YOY),but dropped seven percent in dollar terms. Exports of goods fell 14 percent due to the plunge in commodity prices, but exports of services rose 7 percent due to a good tourist season. Falling commodity prices appear for the moment to have stabilized (e.g. wood and cattle) or even rebounded (e.g. milk and soybeans). Overall imports fell by 7.1 percent in QI/2009 (YOY) following the weaker demand and 20 percent in dollar terms. Imports from the U.S. fell 3.6 per cent and exports to U.S. have risen by 2.7 per cent (both in dollar terms, comparing January - May 2009 over the same period in 2008). Foreign Direct Investment also fell 34 percent in QI/2009 compared to QI/2008. -------------- -------------- FISCAL ACCOUNTS DETERIORATING BUT STILL MANAGABLE -------------- -------------- ¶6. The GOU aims to implement a mildly counter-cyclical fiscal policy and has passed a set of measures to help companies, especially small and medium firms, weather the global crisis. However, the GOU also recognizes it has little room for fiscal stimulus. Fiscal accounts have been deteriorating since the first quarter of 2008. On a 12-months basis, Uruguay's consolidated fiscal balance changed from a surplus equivalent to 0.9 percent of GDP in March 2008 (USD 295 million) to a deficit equivalent to 2.1 percent of GDP in March 2009 (USD 603 million). In April, a reduction of oil purchases by the government-owned oil company ANCAP slashed the deficit to 1.6 percent of GDP, but this is a temporary phenomenon. With inflation lower, the GOU may try to increase utility prices to help fiscal accounts, although such a step would be politically problematic with elections only four months away. NOTE: In recent months the GOU has refrained from raising rates in order to avoid pushing up inflation. END NOTE. Private analysts expect the 2009 budget deficit to be about 2.6 percent of GDP, significantly up from the 1.4 percent deficit in 2008. -------------- GOU FORSEES NO PROBLEM FINANCING ITS DEBT -------------- ¶7. Despite the deterioration, the fiscal deficit should remain manageable in 2009. The Central Bank has a good cushion of international reserves and, in order to ensure sufficient financing, the GOU has proactively secured credit lines from IFIs for almost $900 million ($400 million from the WB, $285 million from the IADB and $400 million from the CAF). In this respect, Minister of Economy Alvaro Garcia recently told the press that the GOU's "fishing nets are loaded." Moreover, the GOU thinks that, should it become necessary, it would qualify for the IMF's Flexible Credit Line. The price of Uruguayan sovereign bonds followed the same pattern as the EMBI+ and, after almost hitting 700 basis points, is currently at 330 basis points. Government officials recently told us the GOU has been informed that it could issue debt at an interest rate of about eight per cent. However, it can not issue any new debt before Parliament passes a bill that raises the national debt cap. The Gross Debt/GDP ratio, which had steadily declined in the past five years, rose from 51% of GDP in December 2008 to 54% of GDP in March 2009. -------------- BANKING SYSTEM REMAINS UNAFFECTED -------------- ¶8. Uruguay's banking system remains unscathed by the global financial crisis. Local banks are in a solid position, with high liquidity and solvency ratios. Deposits are at USD 14 billion and keep growing (although at somewhat lower rates than in the recent past --16% in May 09 YOY vs. 20% in Dec. 08 YOY). There has also been a significant increase in non-resident deposits, mainly from neighboring Argentina, which rose 32 percent from September 2008 through May 2009. At USD 7.9 billion, credits rose six percent from May 2008 through May 2009. There has been, however, a decline in new credits granted to families and small and medium firms. On one hand, banks are imposing stricter requirements to grant credits, and on the other, demand for credit is falling following the economic downturn and uncertainty about the timing of the recovery. -------------- SUMMARY OF KEY INDICATORS DISCUSSED -------------- ¶9. (figures in percentages unless otherwise stated) REAL SECTOR AND INFLATION -------------- GDP growth (QI/09-QI/08)............................... +2.3 GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted I/09-IV/08)............ -2.9 FDI (QI/09-QI/08)........................... ......... -34.0 Inflation (CPI, in May 09 over May 08) ................. +6.6 Inflation (CPI, accumulated in Jan-May 09) ............. +1.7 LABOR MARKET -------------- Unemployment rate (April 2009)......................... 8.3 (up from April 2008, but whole QI/09 better than whole QI/08) Real wages growth (Jan-May 09 over Jan-May 08).......... +9.2 of which private sector ........................... +4.4 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS -------------- Exports of goods and services growth (QI/09-QI/08) ................................. +1.5 in real terms ................................. -7.0 in dollar terms Imports of goods and services growth (QI/09-QI/08) ................................ - 7.1 in real terms ................................ -19.7 in dollar terms FISCAL ACCOUNTS -------------- Fiscal Deficit/GDP (April 09) .......................... 1.6 Gross Debt/GDP (March 09) .............................. 54 MONETARY SECTOR -------------- Central Bank's reference interest rate ................. 8.0 Exchange Rate (Pesos per dollar) ....................... 23.7 Total Deposits growth (May 09 over May 08) ............. +16 Non-resident deposits growth (Sept. 08-May 09) ........ +32 Credits (growth, May 09 over May 08) ................... +6 Country risk (basis points) ........................... 330 MATTHEWMAN