SIGNS OF LIFE IN THE COLORADO PARTY?

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000314 DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV UY SUBJECT: SIGNS OF LIFE IN THE COLORADO PARTY? Summary -------------- ¶1. After a historical drubbing in the 2004 elections, the once dominant Colorado party remains in the political wilderness. While a victory in this yearQs presidential election is practically impossible, the partyQs long-term hopes for recovery lie with the dynamic figure of Pedro Bordaberry, who, although hampered by the fact his father is the ex-dictator Juan Maria Bordaberry, nevertheless strives to represent youthful political renewal. End summary. The Colorado Party: Background -------------- ¶2. The party is traditionally liberal but, like all Uruguayan parties, its ranks cover the entire political spectrum. Its strongest support tends to come from the countryQs metropolitan areas. Historically, the Colorados have been the most elected party in Uruguayan history, with almost uninterrupted dominance during the 20th century. They were in office from 1865 to 1959, were returned to office in 1966 and won the first elections at the end of the military dictatorship in 1984. They also went on to win the elections in 1994 and 1999. In 2004 however, the Colorados suffered a dramatic defeat, winning only a little over 10 percent of the popular vote. Reasons for the party's poor showing were varied, but the economic crisis and the perceived advanced age of much of the partyQs leadership both seriously damaged the partyQs image. The Colorado party has no cabinet members in the present government and holds only 13 out of 129 seats in the general assembly. Pedro Bordaberry: The Colorado PartyQs Savior? -------------- - ¶3. Currently enjoying 80 percent of his partyQs support, it is now almost certain that Pedro Bordaberry will be the ColoradosQ presidential candidate for the 2009 presidential elections. The charismatic, energetic and handsome 49 year- old trained as a lawyer in both Uruguay and the U.S. Something of a renaissance man, he is also a rugby player and literary critic of some repute. A well organized, talented manager, Bordaberry held the posts of minister of tourism and (briefly) of industry under the last Colorado government. He is generally considered to have acquitted himself well while in office. In 2005, he stood as the Colorado candidate for mayor of Montevideo. Although he lost, he garnered an impressive 25 percent of votes. He is a highly able politician who employs an educated, yet simple and direct style of discourse. He is a fluent English speaker, is friendly to the U.S. and is an excellent Embassy contact. ¶4. BordaberryQs political history is defined in part by the figure of his father Juan Maria Bordaberry, who, although elected to the presidency in 1971 was effectively the military-sponsored dictator of the country between 1973 and ¶1976. In 2006 he was arrested in connection with the 1976 assassination of two legislators and, for health reasons is currently serving his sentence between his home and the hospital. Pedro Bordaberry was very public in his defense of his father, and won respect in some quarters for having done so. Nevertheless, the Bordaberry name carries markedly negative connotations in Uruguay and it is noticeable that much of Pedro BordaberryQs campaign material uses his first name rather than his surname. BordaberryQs effort to disassociate himself from the legacy of the dictatorship (he often notes that he was three years old at the time of the military takeover) appear to have been largely effective. ¶5. Such was the impact of the 2004 loss that much of the Colorado party machinery and the factions that maintained it are still in a state of collapse. Furthermore, much of the party is presently hobbled by a long-standing and ongoing rivalry between party patriarchs (and ex-presidents) 73 year- old Julio Mara Sanguinetti and 81 year-old Jorge Batlle. Bordaberry, despite having his career launched by Batlle, is perceived as being relatively independent. BordaberryQs two- year-old QVamos UruguayQ faction (QLetQs Go Uruguay!Q) claims to represent a Qnew centralismQ. While Vamos Uruguay has so far offered little in the way of concrete policy beyond general assertions about the need to address crime, education and declining public morality, it has nevertheless succeeded in striking a note of renewal sorely lacking in the Colorado party as a whole. Increasingly, BordaberryQs faction is able to draw support even from party members once closely affiliated with the old guard. A video on BordaberryQs QFacebookQ profile highlights his relative youth, arguing that the incumbent Frente Amplio party represents not the beginning of a political project, but the end of a political generation led by ministers in their 70Qs and 80Qs. BordaberryQs election propaganda is similarly sprightly and stands out from the slew of competing material by virtue of a succinct elegance and a sense of fun. A Wary Electorate -------------- ¶6. While BordaberryQs success within the party seems unassailable, his momentum has so far failed to rehabilitate the Colorado party in the wider electorate. With the party presently defending a measly 8 percent support rate there is a real risk that the partyQs presence in Parliament may drop even further after the election. For Bordaberry and the Colorados, much depends on the possibility of a second stage run off. If the face-off battle between the FA and the Blanco (National) party is close enough, BordaberryQs support could be crucial. A Colorado seat in a National party government may then be a possibility. ¶7. Although some political commentators believe that the Colorado partyQs decline is terminal, many think that Bordaberry and the Colorados have brighter prospects in the longer term. Bordaberry is under no illusions concerning his chances of victory in 2009, but he and his team do nurse hopes for a much stronger showing in 2014, the year of the next presidential election. One analyst said that while he believed a Colorado recovery to be possible, it would take at least ten years to achieve. Comment -------------- ¶8. Providing he continues to gain ground against the increasingly ossified party leadership, Bordaberry undoubtedly represents the best hope for the Colorado party survival. Whether he can revive the partyQs fortune with the Uruguayan electorate, however, is less certain. With 80 percent of the vote divided between the two main parties, any recovery, even in the medium term, will be minimal. 2014 may be too soon to expect the return of the Colorados, but unlike the rest of the countryQs political front runners, Bordaberry has the youth to afford a couple more warm-up laps. End comment.