POST-ELECTION FALLOUT IN MONTERREY

UNCLAS MONTERREY 000277 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KCRM MX SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION FALLOUT IN MONTERREY REF: MONTERREY 0261 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Now that the PRI gubernatorial candidate, Rodrigo Medina, has won in Nuevo Leon, and local PRI candidates, in general, did better than expected, the political class is slowly adjusting to new realities. While the 36-year old Medina has yet to reveal the members of his governing team, his election - as well as that of two youthful PRI mayors - has made it clear that the region's voters opted to given fresh, new faces a chance to deal with the state's pressing economic and security challenges. Meanwhile, so far local PAN cadres have been able to avoid the blame game that often follows electoral losses. Many are consoled by the hope of finding onward employment in Mexico City with President Calderon's administration or on incoming Monterrey Mayor Fernando Larrazabal's team. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Across both parties (PRI and PAN) the July 5 election brought distinct winners and losers. Clearly, Rodrigo Medina, the prevailing candidate in the governor's race, stands in the winner's camp, but so do a number of other political players as well. First of all, youth has been served as the crop of PRI figures under the age of 40 (both in the public and private sectors) are excited about the possibility of receiving key posts on Medina's governing team. Medina and current Governor Gonzalez Paras - Medina's principal PRI supporter - begin transition talks the week of August 3. However, with two high-profile international events set to take place in September, the U.S.-Mexico Border Governor's Conference and a separate meeting on `Educating on Values,' Governor Gonzalez Paras doesn't intend to depart the stage just yet. ¶3. (SBU) On the PAN side, incoming Monterrey Mayor - and former federal congressman - Fernando Larrazabal immediately becomes the party's most visible office-holder as he will soon take command of Monterrey's mammoth city hall. Larrazabal, who during the campaign told the Consul General that he would file a defamation suit against the PRI for suggested that he had hidden U.S. bank accounts, now appears to be willing to forgive and forget. Outgoing Monterrey Mayor Adalberto Madero and outgoing San Pedro Mayor Fernando Margain, the PAN pre-candidates for governor who did not receive the nomination because national party headquarters handpicked another challenger, also are well-placed. Madero, a former Senator from Nuevo Leon, told the CG that he planned to work in the Calderon Administration while rumors persist that Margain will do the same. Indeed, it appears that Madero is being courted by all sides as the war chest he has amassed during his term as mayor through his efforts to drain the pockets of big business gives him the capacity to bankroll other potential candidates. ¶4. (SBU) Both the city's big business community and Monterrey's leading newspaper, "El Norte," stand on the losing side. Monterrey's industrial heavyweights - the Group of Ten - were vocal in their support of defeated PRI candidate Fernando Elizondo during the campaign. Meanwhile, El Norte visibly leaned toward Elizondo all through the electoral process. In a private conversation with the CG, El Norte managers noted that the city's television outlets had clearly favored Medina, providing him with the lion's share of the coverage and numerous opportunities to expound his platform in favorable, no-pressure settings. ¶5. (SBU) Comment. As for more than two years Medina served as Governor Gonzalez Paras' Secretario de Gobernacion, Consulate leadership knows him well. We believe that he'll move swiftly to bolster the state's law enforcement apparatus, a move which will allow him to rally both PRI and PAN supporters. The byplay between Medina's increased focus on security and the inevitable (probably violent) reaction on the part of organized crime and the drug cartels will be the defining theme over the coming months. WILLIAMSON