MONTSERRADO SENATE BY-ELECTION A PRECURSOR TO 2011 VOTE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MONROVIA 000776 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W AND INR/B E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM SOCI LI SUBJECT: MONTSERRADO SENATE BY-ELECTION A PRECURSOR TO 2011 VOTE REF: A) MONROVIA 570 B) MONROVIA 691 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The National Elections Commission (NEC) will conduct a by-election on November 10 to elect a replacement for Montserrado Senator Hannah Brent who died on August 3. The official campaign period is October 14-18. Ten candidates have been approved and one disqualified. The by-election, the largest since 2005, is seen as a precursor to the 2011 elections. It will be the first test of whether or not the NEC is competent enough to independently execute a large-scale election. The candidates from the ruling Unity Party (UP) and the opposition Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) are the frontrunners. The UP is expected to employ its heavy financial and political resources, while the CDC will once again use the popularity of former presidential candidate George Weah to draw support from Monrovia's slums. President Sirleaf, in a decision that drew international public reaction, appointed Benoni Urey (listed on UN travel ban and assets freeze lists) as acting Mayor of Careysburg in order to shore up support for the election. Former warlord Alhaji Kromah is also in the race and attempts to have him disqualified have so far proven unsuccessful. (Brief biographical summaries of each candidate are listed at the end of this cable.) END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On October 13, the National Elections Commission (NEC) approved ten candidates for the November 10 Montserrado County senatorial by-election. A runoff election will be held November 24 if no candidate wins an absolute majority. Independent candidate Musu Cuch Ketter was excluded after it was revealed that she was convicted of bank fraud in the United States in 1998 and subsequently sentenced to 24 months imprisonment. Public spaces were quickly blotted with campaign posters as soon as the campaign period opened on October 14. The campaign phase ends two days before the election on November 8. ¶3. (SBU) The by-election is viewed as both a precursor to the 2011 elections and a major test for President Sirleaf's Unity Party (UP). Populous Montserrado County holds 35 percent of Liberia's registered voters and no ethnic group holds a decisive majority. The number of voters involved and resources required will make the upcoming by-election the biggest since the 2005 presidential and legislative elections. The NEC has budgeted USD 1.2 million for this contest, which fills the seat vacated after the August 3 death of Senator Hannah Brent (Ref A). OPPOSITION HOPES TO RETAIN EMPTY SEAT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The opposition Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) won both Montserrado County Senate seats in 2005. CDC draws heavy support from the densely populated Monrovia slums and is viewed as the most popular party in the county. George Weah, the party's 2005 presidential candidate, is expected to travel from the United States (where he is completing a bachelor's degree) to campaign for the CDC candidate, current party chair Geraldine Doe-Sheriff (no relation to former president Samuel Doe). Weah himself had been viewed as a possible candidate, but Doe-Sheriff prevailed over the absent Weah following an internal tussle among party members. Despite this, Weah's presence would show the CDC's ability to get past internal disputes and the former football star's presence will prove vital to a CDC victory. PRESIDENTIAL APPOINTMENT MEANT TO SHORE UP SUPPORT? -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) President Sirleaf recently appointed Benoni Urey, an influential member of former President Charles Taylor's National Patriotic Party (NPP),as Acting Mayor of Careysburg, a town on the outskirts of greater Monrovia, and in Montserrado County. His appointment is viewed by many as a gesture aimed at boosting support for the UP's candidate, Clemenceau Urey. Clemenceau Urey and Benoni Urey are cousins and the NPP is not participating in this election. Benoni's mayoral appointment was a major surprise internationally and drew fire from many of the President's opponents, given that he remains a Taylor confidant and is listed on the UN Travel Ban and Assets Freeze lists. TRC-CITED WARLORD TO PARTICIPATE -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The CDC and UP entrants are the early favorites, but four other parties are fielding candidates, in addition to five independent contenders. The most controversial minor candidate is former warlord Alhaji Kromah of the All Liberia Coalition Party. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission recommended the prosecution of Kromah for civil war-era human rights violations in its initial, unedited report. However, in an October 5 ruling, the National Elections Commission said Kromah could contest the election on the grounds that only a court could rule in the criminal and MONROVIA 00000776 002 OF 003 constitutional charges against him. Furthermore, the TRC's final, edited report has not been released (Ref B). NEC Chairman James Fromayan announced in an October 7 meeting that the issue could move to the Supreme Court if the final, edited TRC report is released before the November 10 election. NEC READIES FOR MAJOR CHALLENGE -------------- ¶7. (U) Since 2005, the NEC has conducted seven by-elections (five in the House and two in the Senate) following legislators' untimely deaths. Each involved contests in constituencies with low populations. The Montserrado election will be the NEC's largest vote run without UNMIL support. Montserrado has 14 electoral districts, 496,508 registered voters, 280 voting precincts and 989 polling places. Planning has been in the works since soon after Brent's August 6 death and the NEC continues to outline its needs and progress in regular meetings with international donors. A high-profile civic education campaign commenced at Monrovia's City Hall on October 9. The NEC has also started recruiting poll workers and other election support staff. This event will prove whether the NEC, with a staff of 200, has the mettle to independently conduct large-scale elections in Liberia. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT. The UP's Urey and CDC's Doe-Sheriff are the early frontrunners given the star power of President Sirleaf and former CDC presidential candidate George Weah. The recently released Afrobarometer poll for Liberia shows heavy support for both in urban regions of the country. Winning the seat would be a major boost for President Sirleaf ahead of the 2011 presidential election. Overcoming CDC popularity in poorer, populous areas of Montserrado County is possible with the strong financial support and other resources at its disposal, the most important being Sirleaf herself. Additionally, Alhaji Kromah's participation could be the first opportunity to see whether the courts will back the TRC's recommendations in the face of a legal challenge to his participation if the TRC final report is released before election day. The Embassy will send staff to observe the election and report on the results. END COMMENT. MONTSERRADO COUNTY SENATE BY-ELECTION CANDIDATE BIOS -------------- -------------- CLEMENCEAU UREY (Unity Party) is a noted businessman. He lost a 2005 run for the senate as a UP candidate in Montserrado. Urey currently serves as Chairman of the Board of the National Oil Company of Liberia. Previously, he was Commissioner of Customs and Excise at the Ministry of Finance. Urey founded the Atlantic Insurance Company in Monrovia. He holds a juris doctorate degree from Columbia University in New York and business and public administration degrees from Virginia Commonwealth and Syracuse Universities in the United States. He is of Americo-Liberian descent. GERALDINE DOE-SHERIFF (Congress for Democratic Change),is a former female soccer star. She hails from a prominent soccer family and her brothers played for the Liberian national soccer team. Doe-Sheriff currently serves as the CDC's chairperson. She is also an executive member of the Liberia Football Association. Doe-Sheriff graduated from the University of Liberia and is currently enrolled at the Graduate School of International Relations. She is married to Siaka Sheriff, a Mandingo Muslim and former financial comptroller at the Liberia Petroleum Refining Company. She hails from the Grebo ethnic group. ABRAHAM DARIUS DILLON, SR. (Liberty Party),worked as Special Assistant to the Solicitor General before moving on to serve as Chief of Staff in the office of former House Speaker Edwin Snowe. He currently serves as Chief of Staff in the Office of Senator Jewel Howard-Taylor, wife of former President Charles Taylor. Dillon is also Chairman of the National Executive Board of Consortium of Pressure and Interest Groups of Liberia. Dillon is a native of Grand Bassa County. WILSON K. TARPEH (Alliance for Peace and Democracy),contested the 2005 election for Montserrado County senator but lost. He currently serves as Vice President for Fiscal Affairs at the University of Liberia. Tarpeh served as Minister of Finance during the early 1990s. Before then, he worked at the Agricultural and Cooperative Development Bank and the African Development Bank based in Abidjan. Tarpeh owns The News newspaper, which he established in 1989. He also teaches business and finance courses at various Universities in Monrovia. ALHAJI KROMAH (All Liberia Coalition Party) is a former warlord and founder of the defunct ULIMO-K warring faction blamed for some of the worst forms of human rights abuses during Liberia's civil war. He is an ethnic Mandingo who unsuccessfully contested the 1997 and 2005 presidential elections. He formerly served as Director General of the Liberia Broadcasting System and Minister of Information during the administration of former President Samuel Doe. He is MONROVIA 00000776 003 OF 003 recommended for prosecution for human rights violations in the unedited TRC report. Kromah currently teaches mass communication at the University of Liberia. He is a Muslim. JASPER F. NDARBORLOR (Free Democratic Party) is pastor at the Monrovia Free Pentecostal Church in Sinkor, Monrovia. He is a respected member of the clergy, but was accused of sexual abuse of a minor in 2004. No formal charges were ever filed against him. Ndarborlor was appointed by the Liberia Council of Churches to serve as a member of the Special Committee set up to review and analyze the TRC Final Report. He is a member of the Kissi ethnic group. JACQUELINE M. CAPEHART-CONTO (Independent Candidate) was a founding member of the Congress for Democratic Change before resigning over policy differences and joining the Unity Party in 2007. She owns and runs the Jackie Travel and Airline Agency in Monrovia. She has pressed for Liberian businesses to be protected from competition from foreigners, notably among them travel agencies. She holds a bachelors degree in Public Administration from the University of Liberia. NATHANIEL TOE (Independent Candidate) is a founding member of the Liberty Party and served as the party's Secretary General before being expelled. Toe served as Chairman of the Maryland Development Association and was also Regional Director of the United Methodist Human Rights Monitor as head of its southeastern chapter. He holds a bachelor's degree in accounting from the University of Liberia. DANIEL JOHNSON (Independent Candidate) came to the limelight through the Independent National Patriotic Front of Liberia warring faction led by current Nimba County Senator Prince Y. Johnson. Daniel Johnson, who is no relation to Prince Johnson, served as an advisor to the warlord. He briefly served as mayor of Monrovia. Johnson also lived in the United States before returning to become head of the Monrovia City Council. He was a member of the Congress for Democratic Change but resigned from the party over policy differences. GRACE M. KPAN (Independent Candidate) is President of the Dock Workers' Union of Liberia. She also served as Deputy Managing Director of the National Port Authority under the National Transitional Government of Liberia. Kpan is known for her unwavering advocacy of labor rights. THOMAS-GREENFIELD