EMBASSY MONROVIA CONVENES EAC TO DISCUSS UNREST IN GUINEA

S E C R E T MONROVIA 000724 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR S/ES-O, DS/IP/AF, DS/DSS/ITA, CA/OCS, AF/W E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2029 TAGS: ASEC CASC PREL PHUM GV LI SUBJECT: EMBASSY MONROVIA CONVENES EAC TO DISCUSS UNREST IN GUINEA REF: (A) MONROVIA 722; (B) MONROVIA 720 ¶1. (U) On October 2, 2009, Embassy Monrovia convened the EAC to discuss the ongoing unrest in Guinea and its implications for security and stability in Liberia. ¶2. (S//NF) Ambassador recounted her conversation with the President of Liberia on September 28 (Ref B) and the president's Chief of Staff on October 1, both of whom expressed their extreme concern over the situation in neighboring Guinea. The recurring expression during this conversation was "if war breaks out in Guinea, Liberia's fragile peace will be shattered." ¶3. (C) Reporting officers noted the shared ethnicity between Guineans (specifically from Guinean leader Dadis' ethnic group) and Liberians, the presence of many Liberian ex-combatants who have remained on the Guinea side of the border, and the possibility of protests/demonstrations by the large Guinean population in Monrovia. There have been reports in the press about Liberian ex-combatants being recruited to fight in Liberia. (Note: President Sirleaf substantiated this reporting in a meeting with Ambassador subsequent to the EAC meeting (Ref A). End Note.) Dadis may use this as an excuse to make an incursion into Liberia. However, the first crisis requiring a response would more likely be humanitarian, if large numbers of refugees enter Liberia to flee the violence. ¶4. (C) The EAC agreed that RSO will continue to monitor up-country travel requests by COM personnel in order to provide current threat information. Peace Corps Country Team Director will contact all PCVs in the border area. DAO is in communication with US military observers (MILOBs) attached to the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) and deployed in two population centers in the border area. ¶5. (U) The EAC directed CONS to draft a warden message addressing general precautions against travel to Guinea from Liberia and safety/security when traveling in the border region. ¶6. (S//NF) The EAC agreed that no tripwires, as detailed in Post's EAP, have been met at this point. ¶7. (U) POC for this cable is RSO Christopher Gillis, GillisCJ@state.sgov.gov, 231-77-516702. ¶8. (U) Conakry Minimize considered. THOMAS-GREENFIELD