FLAWED THRESHOLD BILL LIKELY TO MOVE FORWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MONROVIA 000661 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W NGAREY, USUN FOR STURNER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID LI SUBJECT: FLAWED THRESHOLD BILL LIKELY TO MOVE FORWARD REF: MONROVIA 280 MONROVIA 00000661 001.20 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Brooks Robinson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The Liberian House of Representatives approved a Threshold Bill on September 3 that is the same as the one passed earlier by the Senate. The final bill will double the maximum population in a constituency to 40,000 with a proviso that no county shall have fewer than two seats in the House of Representatives. The measure would prove costly as it means the House will gain 23 members and associated staff. Its legality is in question given that Liberia's constitution does not specifically empower the Legislature to do anything further than set constituency thresholds. The International Contact Group for Liberia (ICGL) weighed in with House leaders, who were not swayed by the ICGL's concerns over the bill's financial impact, the risk that a constitutional challenge could delay the 2011 elections, and the consequences for Liberia's democratic credentials. The ball is now in President Sirleaf's court. She is most likely to give her assent by not signing, and let the courts find the way forward. Meanwhile, the National Elections Commission (NEC) intends to use this bill to begin delineating voting district boundaries, and plans to disregard the two-seat minimum proviso, which it maintains is patently unconstitutional. END SUMMARY. THRESHOLD BILL SETS CONSTITUENCY SIZE AT 40,000 -------------- -------------- MONROVIA 00000661 002 OF 002 two-seat per county minimum requirement for now. This strategy enables the NEC to begin the planning that is urgently required if the elections are to be held on time in ¶2011. ¶6. (SBU) President Sirleaf has a 20-day window in which to sign the bill, send it back to the Legislature for reconsideration, or veto it. If she takes no action during this period, the measure will become law. Sirleaf indicated earlier that she would sign a bill allowing a modest increase in the number of representatives, but believes that an increase of 23 seats is too costly and will adversely affect the GOL's Poverty Reduction Strategy. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) President Sirleaf's hands are tied. She worked hard to forge a compromise she could live with and the country could afford, but lost that battle. She is not likely to veto the bill despite her own reservations because that would risk delaying the elections and could affect her support in the smaller counties that would feel disadvantaged. However, she is mindful of her own international reputation and is reluctant to sign a bill that her advisers say is probably unconstitutional, and which, at the least, would be subject to challenge on constitutional grounds. On September 8 Embassy sources in the Executive Mansion asked for the ICGL's and USG's views, and signaled that Sirleaf is likely to assent to the bill by taking no action. ¶8. (C) The lawmakers' blatant disregard for the law is stunning, though not a huge surprise in a country where impunity has reigned for so long. Their use of high-sounding arguments to buttress their position ) i.e., that they are taking this stand to promote national stability, justice, and fair representation in the legislature - didn't fool us: this is all about taking care of themselves and their cronies, protecting their "lucrative" jobs, and feeding at the national trough at the expense of the impoverished majority. ¶9. (SBU) The Threshold Bill dispute will undoubtedly move to the Supreme Court, as NGO representatives opposed to either a costly expansion of the House or the purportedly unconstitutional two-seat requirement have vowed a challenge. The current bill's $5 million price tag imposes a heavy financial burden on a cash-based budget of only $371 million, but finalization of a threshold bill is the first step in passage of reforms needed to ensure a smooth election in 2011. ROBINSON