WHO WILL SUCCEED ELLEN JOHNSON SIRLEAF?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MONROVIA 000160 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV LI SUBJECT: WHO WILL SUCCEED ELLEN JOHNSON SIRLEAF? Classified By: Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield for reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The next presidential elections in Liberia are almost three years away, and we sense that in many ways Liberian politicians are already gearing up for them. Potential candidates are building constituencies, keeping themselves in the press, and otherwise talking themselves up. However, President Sirleaf continues to be coy on a decision to run for re-election, so at this point any discussion about a possible successor is strictly a parlor game. We can say with some confidence that, if Liberia's progress continues, President Sirleaf would be difficult to defeat if she decided to run again, and if she does not, the Unity Party candidate, with President Sirleaf's endorsement, would be the odds-on favorite. But a lot depends on who is selected. End Summary. ¶2. (C) As a candidate in 2005, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf said that if elected she would serve only one term. Since then, both publicly and privately, she has refused to divulge her intentions. This is wise politically, as she does not want to make herself a lame duck too early, but we have the sense that she is truly undecided. Members of her family reportedly are discouraging her from running again (she will be 72 at the time of the elections). Also tantalizing would be the notion of becoming an international statesman, where she could set her own pace, and command large honoraria for speaking on the world stage. On the other hand, she may out of patriotism and commitment to Liberia's success decide to continue what she has started. ¶3. (C) Meanwhile, President Sirleaf's Unity Party continues to gain strength to the point that it is arguably the strongest party in Liberia at the moment. Party officials are well placed in government positions throughout the country and are building a strong machine. The party continues to win over adherents and the appointment of young party members to key government positions shows the party is ready to lead for another generation. Some of these, such as Minster of Finance Augustine Ngafuan, could well be seasoned enough by 2018 for a presidential run. There are many "wannabes," but there is no clear successor for 2012, which may be yet another factor in President Sirleaf's decision to run again. ¶4. (C) Several names are rumored to become the next Unity Party candidate should President Sirleaf decide not to run, we believe fueled by the potential candidates themselves. High on the list is National Investment Commission chair Richard Tolbert, nephew of former President William R. Tolbert, Jr. (1971-1980). Tolbert is Harvard-educated, intelligent, well-connected both inside and outside Liberia, and truly committed to encouraging investment in Liberia. However, as an Americo-Liberian, and unapologetic in his pursuit of his family and others to regain what was lost in the war, his candidacy could open old wounds. Further, he spent more than 25 years outside of Liberia and has no political base. ¶5. (C) Another name often mentioned is Minister of Defense Brownie Samukai. All indications are that Samukai has been nothing but a faithful servant in the Sirleaf government. However, he often returns to his home area of Lofa County, presumably to build his base, and has used his position as Chair of the Security Pillar (an inter-ministerial committee that includes donors with a mandate to devise Liberia's security strategy) in an effort to become Liberia's primary security official. While it is true that he probably has the most experience in security in the cabinet, his overreaching has sometimes caused friction. Samukai has been loyal to President Sirleaf, but also has connections with other former members of Dr. Amos Sawyer's Interim Government of National Unity (1990-1994),when Samukai headed the paramilitary Black Berets. Former Black Berets are sprinkled throughout the security sector, and other members of government still hold Samukai in high esteem for his efforts to protect the Sawyer government. ¶6. (C) Samukai is also related to Vice President Joseph Boakai, both of whom are from Lofa County. We have heard rumors that Boakai himself is considering running, although he may be a straw man for Samukai. Boikai, who was chosen by Sirleaf to balance her ticket geographically and ethnically, has not been a true Unity Party insider. He has done a credible job as President of the Senate, especially during the present Senate leadership crisis, and he and his wife are known for their philanthropy. He does not, however, have the backing that others enjoy. If Boakai does not run himself, he would most likely lend his support to Samukai. ¶7. (C) Ambulai Johnson's name also comes up in conversations. We often hear that Johnson is President Sirleaf's half-brother, but our understanding is that they are in fact MONROVIA 00000160 002 OF 002 cousins. As Minister of Internal Affairs, Johnson has control of the County Superintendents, who in turn have control of the government resources in the counties. A January 2008 Supreme Court decision declaring mayoral elections unconstitutional (ruling that mayors must be appointed by the President) has only strengthened Johnson's hand in controlling the counties. Johnson is usually named head of the Cabinet when President Sirleaf is traveling, making him de facto head of government, leaving Vice President Boakai only protocollary duties. Some see this as Sirleaf grooming her "brother" for the presidency. Another explanation is that President Sirleaf, sometimes to a fault, depends on the loyalty of family members in running her government. ¶8. (C) The key to the victory of the Unity Party candidate would ultimately be the endorsement of President Sirleaf. If President Sirleaf chose to remain "above the fray," and not endorse the candidate, that candidate's task will be that much harder. ¶9. (C) At this point, there is no potential opposition candidate who could beat President Sirleaf, or even have an edge over any other potential Unity Party candidate. The largest party, the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC),is fractured and there is no indication it will re-emerge any time soon. CDC presidential candidate George Weah's decision to reside abroad since his defeat in 2005 has only made him weaker as a candidate. He can still find support among disaffected youth, who still see him as a soccer star and a defender of youth, but from our discussions we have concluded he is losing support even from the more talented members of the CDC. ¶10. (C) It is possible that much of the discord within the CDC is being orchestrated by some founding members of the CDC who have since left the party. Minister of Labor Samuel Kofi Woods and TRC chaiman Jerome Verdier, both of whom are presidential aspirants, apparently want to take their party back. However, the likelihood is not high that the CDC can patch up its differences and field a strong candidate in time for the elections. ¶11. (C) The only other viable party is the Liberty Party. The LP continues to be a regional party, with strong backing from the Bassa ethnic group in Grand Bassa and River Cess Counties. However, the party received a small boost when Senator Lahai Lansannah joined the party, and the LP is presently collaborating well with the CDC. ¶12. (C) LP party leader Charles Brumskine continues to have some appeal even beyond his party's base (including from evangelical churchgoers),and has been an outspoken critic of the Sirleaf administration. But he still does not have broad national appeal or political base, and like others, spends a lot of time "home" in the United States. If he were to orchestrate a merger of the LP and CDC with him at the head, he would a far more viable candidate. But George Weah and others stand in the way of that. ¶13. (C) There is no other alternative on the horizon. Charles Taylor's NPP party is losing support. Presumptive NPP candidate Lewis Brown is currently in the U.S. studying for a second master's degree. Political Dinosaur Togbah Nah Tipoteh has not been able to develop a new vision and, while well-liked, has no popular base outside of the Monrovia slums of West Point and New Kru Town. ¶14. (C) It is far too soon to predict the 2011 elections. We will continue to watch the progression of events, first among them President Sirleaf's decision whether or not to run again. THOMAS-GREENFIELD