KEEPING BERLUSCONI CLOSE: NORTHERN LEAGUE STRATEGY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MILAN 000095 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/PPD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON IT SUBJECT: KEEPING BERLUSCONI CLOSE: NORTHERN LEAGUE STRATEGY FOR EU ELECTIONS MILAN 00000095 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: CG Daniel Weygandt. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Northern League (LN) insiders Roberto Calderoli, Minister for Legislative Simplification, and Giancarlo Giorgetti, President of the Finance Committee in the Chamber of Deputies described their strategy to make LN the hegemonic political party in Northern Italy over the next few years. Key to their plan is progress on fiscal federalism and broader regional autonomy and securing one, or possibly two, regional governor positions in the 2010 elections. Giorgetti acknowledged an upward trend in polling for LN ahead of the EU Parliamentary elections in June, but expressed concern that if LN results were ""too good,"" it would create friction with Berlusconi's People of Liberty party (PdL) and possibly hurt the chances of an LN candidate to head the PdL ticket for a key Northern region in 2010. LN's strategy in the short term will be to keep Berlusconi as close as possible, minimizing tension between the LN and PdL. Still, center right candidacies for Northern Italian regions for the 2010 elections will likely be the key cause of discord within the governing coalition over the next year. End summary. ¶2. (U) On April 20, the Consul General had lunch with two top figures in Italy's Northern League political party: Roberto Calderoli, Minister for Legislative Simplification, and Giancarlo Giorgetti, President of the Finance Committee in the Chamber of Deputies. -------------- -------------- Economic Crisis Disproportionally Felt in the North -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Giorgetti asserted that the economic crisis is more of an abstraction in Rome and that this explained the somewhat limited response to the crisis from the government. He explained that roughly half of Italians are retired and receiving guaranteed pensions. Of the other half that works, almost half work for the government. This leaves only a quarter working for the private sector and at risk of losing their jobs in the current downturn. The government jobs are concetrated in Rome and southern Italy while private sector jobs, particularly in small business are concentrated in northern Italy. (Note: The concentration of small business is densest in Lombardy and the Veneto, LN's traditional strongholds. End note.) Thus, Giorgetti concluded, only a quarter of the population is feeling the effects of the economic crisis and three quarters of that group is in the North. (Note: The proportions Giorgetti cites are rhetorical flourishes, but most are roughly within the ballpark with the exception of the symbolic exaggeration that three quarters of private sector activity is in the North. Still, we are certainly hearing increased concern from export-focused small businesses throughout our district, particularly given the recent dropoff in demand for exports. End note.) Frustration with the government's response to the crisis is increasing support for LN, according to Giorgetti. -------------- Future of the Northern League -------------- ¶4. (C) Calderoli was unequivocal about the future of LN. He expressed the LN goal was to be the hegemonic political party in Northern Italy. He said the party would seek to achieve this result through delivering concrete results, starting with this year's push on fiscal federalism. He was clear that the LN base expected real autonomy and that fiscal federalism was at best a first step, particularly in the current, relatively weak set of proposed reforms. He pointed to the regional elections in 2010 as a key opportunity for LN, noting they should be able to win two governorships (there has never been an LN governor). He was confident that LN governors would build support for the party through good government at the regional level. (Note: This strategy has worked well for LN at the local level, particularly with strong mayors that are able to build support for the party through competent administration and personal charisma. Regional governors are more prominent and have more authority, so LN hopes this strategy will work even better on a regional level. End note.) When asked which two MILAN 00000095 002.2 OF 003 governorships LN hoped to get, Calderoli explicitly named the Veneto suggesting LN had enough support to win outright there and thus the center right coalition would support a LN candidate to keep the LN from ""going it alone."" It was clear that Lombardy was the second target, but Calderoli insinuated that Lombardy was probably too prominent for Berlusconi's People of Liberty party (PdL) to give up and that LN might be able to give up Lombardy for a guarantee on Veneto and some other concessions. -------------- -------------- LN Looking to 2010 Elections: Keeping Berlusconi Close -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Calderoli and Giorgetti agreed that European Parliamentary elections in June were of secondary importance to the party. Nonetheless, LN is clearly keeping an eye on those races. Giorgetti noted that polls showed increasing LN strength ahead of the June elections, but that paradoxically LN party leader Umberto Bossi was worried that the party would get too much support. Further gains at the expense of PdL this year could upset the coalition's balance, he argued, and drive the PdL to seek to openly tarnish LN at every opportunity ahead of the 2010 elections. Giorgetti said the LN strategy in the short term would be to keep Berlusconi in a bear hug, as close as possible. ""If Berlusconi says red, we say red. If he says black, black for us too."" Giorgetti sensed Berlusconi was looking to create friction to push LN to be more extreme and improve PdL's support, but he was clear LN would not fall for it. ¶6. (C) Comment: Gaining a governorship has been a Northern League priority for quite some time. The conventional political wisdom is that a strong showing in the upcoming EU Parliamentary elections would give LN increased leverage to ask for their candidate to head the center right ticket in at least one key region in the 2010 elections. Since the decision of a candidate will be made by political leaders, in this case negotiated between Berlusconi and Bossi, LN is astutely seeking to avoid friction until the 2010 elections - including friction from performing too well in the EU elections. Still, with polls showing a strong boost for LN (though it is still early for polling by Italian standards), LN will not have fine-tuned control over their election showing nor over how good is too good according to Berlusconi. Candidacies for the regional elections in Northern Italy on the center right will continue to be a key source of tension within the governing coalition until the lists for the 2010 election are set. End comment. -------------- Bio Notes -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Roberto Calderoli is 53. He was born in Bergamo, Italy on April 18, 1956. He holds a degree in medicine and dental surgery. He started out in politics with the Lombard League, precursor to the Northern League, in the late 1980s. He was first elected to Parliament in 1992 and has been a member of Parliament since (Deputy until 2001, then Senator). He twice served as Vice President of the Senate. In that role during the Prodi Government from 2006-2008, he was regarded as one of the legislative masterminds of the opposition, working to engineer Prodi's fall from power. He served as Minister of Institutional Reform from 2004-06 and since 2008 has served as Minister for Legislative Simplification (both times without portfolio). He plays a key role in the LN party structure as well, serving as coordinator of its regional secretaries (a key election strategy position) since 2002. He is best known for his controversial antics and anti-immigrant stance, including unbuttoning his shirt in Parliament to reveal a t-shirt with a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammad and calling for a national ""take a pig to your local mosque day"" to protest mosque construction in Italy. Aside from party leader Umberto Bossi, Calderoli is perhaps the most popular LN politician with the party's rank and file. He is intellectually astute, but cultivates an image of buffoonery to disarm his political opponents. ¶8. (SBU) Giancarlo Giorgetti is 42. He was born in Cazzago Brabbia, Italy (near Varese) on December 16, 1966. He has a degree in economics from Milan's prestigious Bocconi University. He was elected to the Chamber of Deputies in MILAN 00000095 003.2 OF 003 1996 and has been reelected in each subsequent session. He served as President of the powerful Treasury Committee from 2001-06, and from 2008 to the present (he served as Vice President of the Committee when the center right was in the opposition from 2006-08). He has also served on the Foreign Affairs Committee and is a member of the Italian Parliamentary delegation to NATO. He is regional party secretary for the Lombardy Region, a key LN stronghold. He comes from Varese, the hometown of numerous other LN heavyweights including Bossi and current Interior Minister Maroni. He is extremely sharp and well-respected both inside and outside of his party. Numerous contacts speculate that he might eventually succeed Bossi as leader of the party (and he tends to agree in private). WEYGANDT "