MEXICO'S PRI LOSES SUPPORT AS PAN STEPS UP ATTACKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000935 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX SUBJECT: MEXICO'S PRI LOSES SUPPORT AS PAN STEPS UP ATTACKS REF: MEXICO 0652 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay. Reason: 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Recent polling has showed a sharp drop in support of the PRI in the July electoral contests. The PRI's apparent slump comes in the midst of what has been an increasingly heated negative campaign by the PAN leadership to tie the party to narcotrafficking and damage its credentials in Congress. The PAN's negative campaign against the PRI -- to which the PRI does not appear to be effectively responding -- is in part taking advantage of real errors made by its opponent, but also may be employing dirtier tactics. Nevertheless, the PAN appears to have made little gain in the past two months, suggesting that the negative campaign tactics may only have momentarily called into question PRI credentials instead of burnishing the PAN's. Repeated PAN attacks could also engender a more complicated and rancorous PAN-PRI dynamic, which could inadvertently complicate the next legislative period for Calderon. The real winner in July may be absentionism. End Summary. PAN TURNS UP THE HEAT -------------- ¶2. (C) A poll conducted by Beruman and Associates between March 20-23 and released in Mexico City daily "El Universal" on March 30 showed a drop of almost ten percentage points in respondents who said they would vote for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) from a similar Berumen poll carried out in late January and early February. 30.3 percent of respondents to the most recent poll said they would vote for the PRI if the July legislative elections were held today, 27.4 percent for the National Action Party (PAN),and 12.2 percent for the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD). In contrast, the earlier survey revealed that 39.9 percent of respondents said they would vote for the PRI, 25.1 percent for the PAN, and 15.4 percent for the PRD. While the PAN made a slight gain -- the 2.3 percent increase still falls within the 4.6 percent margin of error -- the most significant surge was in the number of undecided voters, which saw a ten percent increase from 16.3 percent to 26.6 percent in the March poll. Local press reports that other March polls also showed that the race may be tightening, such as a GEA-ISA poll released on March 18 that had the PRI ahead of the PAN by only two points, 41 percent to the PAN's 39 percent. ¶3. (C) The PRI's apparent slump comes in the midst of what has been an increasingly heated negative campaign by the PAN leadership to tie the party to narcotrafficking and damage its credentials in Congress. The rhetorical sparring seems to be the key variable in explaining the decreased levels of support. PAN President German Martinez in particular over the past two months has gone on the offensive against the PRI -- most notably following the publication of the earlier polls putting the PAN far behind its tricolor opponents -- and has accused the party of being obstructionist in Congress, bearing responsibility for Mexico's current security struggles, and selecting legislative candidates with ties to organized criminal activities. Martinez publicly charged PRI federal deputy candidate Hector Murguia Lardizabal in Ciudad Juarez of being tied to the Juarez cartel, which Murguia intends to dispute by bringing accusations of slander before the Attorney General. PAN has also has taken quick advantage of the PRI's chosen gubernatorial candidate in Colima state, Mario Anguiano, by highlighting his family ties to drug trafficking activities -- his brother Humberto Anguiano is serving a ten-year jail sentence for selling methamphetamines, while his cousin Rafael Anguiano is imprisoned in the United States for illicit activities committed in Los Angeles. ¶4. (C) The PAN's negative campaign against the PRI -- to which the PRI does not appear to be effectively responding -- is in part taking advantage of real errors made by its opponent. Political analyst Juan Pardinas notes that the PRI's choice of Anguiano as the Colima gubernatorial candidate was a major mistake. Even PRI Secretary General Jesus Murillo Karam admitted that the choice of the candidate was "ill-timed" and that he had questioned the decision. The MEXICO 00000935 002 OF 002 party has not, however, moved to replace the candidate, nor has it effectively explained itself for the choice. ¶5. (C) At the same time, some of the PAN's other accusations may be a bit trickier. Pardinas suggests that the PRI's move to call for more discussion in the Senate of the asset forfeiture bill -- which has been heavily criticized by the PAN as obstructionist -- may not have been pure politicking, but instead driven by real concerns, such as property rights. As the owner of a rental property, Pardinas opined that Calderon's original proposal would not have offered him sufficient protections, for example, if he unknowingly rented to someone involved in organized criminal activities. Even Attorney General Medina Mora last week said that the PRI's proposed changes to the asset forfeiture law were "consistent with the spirit" of the federal government's efforts. Nevertheless, other congressional contacts have told Poloff that the PRI was indeed blocking swift approval of the law to punish the PAN for Martinez's attacks, which seems to be how the Mexican public and press are interpreting the delay. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The decline in public support for the PRI and rise in undecideds seems to indicate that the PAN's efforts to tar the PRI as being in bed with the narcotics traffickers and an obstacle to real security reform have to some extent paid off. The PAN has said that it will follow the same "posture" and "strategy" over the course of the campaign, and indeed PAN President German Martinez's sharp criticisms of the opposition have continued apace. Nevertheless, the PAN appears to have made little gain in the past two months, suggesting that the negative campaign tactics may only have momentarily called into question PRI credentials instead of burnishing the PAN's. Moreover, repeated PAN attacks could engender a more complicated and rancorous PAN-PRI dynamic, which could inadvertently complicate the next legislative period for Calderon. In the end, the real winner in July may be absentionism. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / BASSETT