PRD PRESIDENT TELL CHARGE PARTY RECUPERATING; AMLO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000656 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2019 TAGS: MX PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: PRD PRESIDENT TELL CHARGE PARTY RECUPERATING; AMLO ALL BUT OUT Classified By: CHARGE LESLIE BASSSETT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) President Jesus Ortega told CDA and PolMinCouns that 2006 presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) had essentially left the party, throwing his lot in with the Convergencia and Workers' parties. While some in the PRD remained loyal to the former party strongman, party leadership was moving toward processes that emphasized principles over personalities. Ortega predicted the Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) could win a majority in the Congress during July 2009 mid-term elections, and acknowledged his own party would lose seats. Ortega raised only one issue with us -- the need for the US to do more to stop arms trafficking. We note that internal problems continue to roil the PRD, but if AMLO has indeed left the party it could leave the PRD 2012 presidential candidacy for Marcelo Ebrard, currently mayor of Mexico City, to take or leave as he chooses. End Summary ¶2. (C) PRD President Jesus Ortega and party International Affairs Director Saul Escobar tried to paint the party's recent, torturous internal battles as a triumph of transparency and principled disagreement. Ortega claimed that vicious internal electoral disputes and accusations of vote-rigging which kept the party's internal presidential election in turmoil for months had been cathartic, allowing the party to resume its focus on its members and its platform. Having learned from the bitter past, Ortega told us the party would eschew primaries for congressional seats to be contested in July 2009 mid-term elections, and would instead use polls to select candidates. While the economic downturn might favor the PRD in next July's contest, Ortega continued, the party overall expected to lose seats. The main causes, he admitted freely, were AMLO's post-electoral decisions including the 50-day blockage of Mexico City's main thoroughfare, as well as subsequent internal party battles. The ruling National Action Party (PAN) would also lose seats as a result of security and economic concerns combined with internal party disputes, Ortega predicted. ¶3. (C) The big winner would in any case be the PRI, he said, which in what he characterized as a "worst-case scenario" could score a clear majority in the lower Chamber of Deputies. Ortega claimed such a victory would herald a return to old ways in Mexico, and the US should be concerned that Mexico's brief history of alternating parties in power could well be over. Ortega complained that the PRI was run by a feudal hierarchy of governors who used cronyism and corruption to further their personal ambitions at the cost of Mexico's future. Ortega of course exempted PRD governors from his criticism, although not PAN governors. ¶4. (C) Asked by PolMinCouns where AMLO stood in the PRD's electoral strategy, Ortega paused before saying that AMLO had "both feet" out of the party. He revisited the point several times, repeating that AMLO was throwing his hat in with the Worker's Party (PT) and Convergencia, both smaller parties desperate to secure enough votes to meet legal thresholds and continue to exist. AMLO might still have supporters in the PRD, Ortega allowed, but his electoral future, at least in 2009, seemed to lie elsewhere. He said he thought it likely AMLO would formally split from the party after the July elections. ¶5. (C) Ortega closed the cordial and frank meeting by raising the party's primary concern, which was arms trafficking from the United States. The USG had to do more, he stressed, to stop the flow of heavy weapons into Mexico. The violence was affecting all sectors and all parties, Ortega concluded, and the PRD wanted to make sure the USG knew of its concern. ¶6. (C) Comment: Ortega sought the meeting in order to maintain dialog with the USG after the party's serious season of upheaval. If, as he says, AMLO has left the PRD it leaves the 2012 presidential field open to current Mexico City Mayor Marcel Ebrard, who despite his long friendship with AMLO remains inside the PRD. It may also open the door to a return of the Cardenas dynasty as former Michoacan Governor Lazaro Cardenas considers his return to Mexican politics. And while it may seem early to discuss potential candidates MEXICO 00000656 002 OF 002 in 2012, that campaign will begin -- at least in the press -- as soon as the 2009 mid-term ballots are cast. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / BASSETT