MEXICO'S CONGRESS CONSIDERS CREATION OF NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000651 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX SUBJECT: MEXICO'S CONGRESS CONSIDERS CREATION OF NATIONAL GUARD Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay. Reason: 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary. The PRI has proposed constitutional changes that would permit the creation of a new National Guard Force, calling it a response to the deteriorating security situation in Mexico, as well as to the lack of a trustworthy and effective federal police force. Opinion is mixed in political, military, and academic circles, and congressional contacts have suggested that the prospects for the bill's passage this session are slim. Nevertheless, the proposal does highlight an ongoing discussion in Mexico of the long-term role of the military in its domestic fight against drug trafficking. Better equipping the nation's Armed Forces for internal policing is not, however, a substitute for meaningful police reform that looks to not only more effectively and efficiently fight narcotrafficking, but also treat the larger problem of impunity in Mexico. End Summary. PRI Offers its Military Solution -------------- ¶2. (C) Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) Deputy Roberto Badillo Martinez, member of the National Defense Commission, proposed on February 19 constitutional changes that would permit the creation of a new National Guard Force. While the establishment of such an entity was included in the PRI's 2009-2012 campaign platform, released earlier this month, the timing of the legislative initiative coincided closely with Defense Secretary Guillermo Galvan's recent entreaties to Congress for additional support of the military's counterdrug activities. The PRI and Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) responded to Galvan's request by lauding the military's sacrifice and accomplishments while questioning the efficacy and appropriateness of extending the military's deployment as frontline defenders against organized crime indefinitely. ¶3. (SBU) In this context, the PRI's initiative calls for constitutional changes that would allow for the creation of a National Guard force which would, over the next several years, replace the military in its counterdrug mission. The reform would give the Secretary for Defense (SEDENA) the power to activate, organize, arm, and operate the force, which would remain under SEDENA's mandate. The National Guard would gradually acquire border, customs, and civil protection responsibilities, as well. The new structure would theoretically consist of highly trained soldiers and officers pulled from the Army, Air Force, and Naval Schools. Badillo also claimed that the Guard would coordinate closely with the Attorney General's Office (PGR) when necessary. Reaction Muted, Mixed -------------- ¶4. (C) The PRI is calling the initiative a response to the deteriorating security situation in Mexico, as well as to the lack of a trustworthy and effective federal police force. Badillo claims that the project of building a national police force will be, as it has been for decades, unviable, citing surveys that claim over 50 percent of the police forces to be corrupt and inefficient. In large part because of police deficiencies, Badillo argues, the military has had to shoulder too large of a part -- between 85 and 90 percent -- of the counterdrug burden. PRI deputies have also argued that the military has other constitutional functions which it needs to fulfill, while PRD leaders have contended that the military's "presence in the streets" should not be legalized for an indefinite time period. President Calderon's National Action Party (PAN) has strongly backed the work of the military, even while accepting that the National Guard proposal should be carefully examined. The president of the Senate's Justice Commission, PAN Senator Alejandro Gonzalez Alcocer, said in an interview that he might be in agreement with the proposal. ¶5. (C) Opinion is mixed in political, military, and academic circles. Political analyst Juan Pardinas told Poloff on February 23 that the proposal was worth considering and that the creation of a more specialized, highly-trained guard might be an effective crime-fighting tool. At the same time, he wondered whether the military would sign on to a proposal MEXICO 00000651 002 OF 002 that would recruit from its own ranks. National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) security and defense expert Raul Benitez noted to Poloff on February 24 that the military is, in fact, divided on the issue. Those sectors that support establishing such a structure are generally less enthused about the military's new internal policing role, while those who oppose the measure see no problem with the current counterdrug deployment. He also noted that the PRI has long-standing and deep ties within the military and probably has a relatively good read on its perspective on the issue. Our Defense Attache's high-level military contacts have looked at the United States' National Guard with curiosity, but appear unprepared, presently, to promote the establishment of a similar organization in Mexico. Indeed, these same senior officers often comment that a US-type National Guard would be impractical in Mexico. ¶6. (C) Other analysts have said that the proposal is an affront against the country's police forces and an attempt to substitute for police reorganization, which has stalled in Congress due to opposition from the PRI and PRD. UNAM security expert Pedro Isnardo de la Cruz opined in the press that the proposal reflects disagreements amongst lawmakers over the creation of a unified national police and that the PRI is suggesting that there is a national emergency that the public security system -- including the military and the executive -- is far from resolving. Prospects? -------------- ¶7. (C) The initiative, requiring constitutional amendments and budget discussions, is a complicated one to propose in the final, pre-election session of Congress. Head of the Defense Commission, PAN Deputy Jorge Gonzalez Betancourt, told Poloff on March 3 that he does not expect the measure to pass this session, given lack of time and study given to the issue. He said that the military in general is not as enthused about a National Guard as is the PRI deputy who proposed it, and noted that he himself would prefer to see the military police force expanded vice a new force created. PRI Deputy Edmundo Ramirez, claiming that the Secretary of Defense is more open to the idea and that the PAN is slowly coming on board, still opined that the law is complicated enough that it merits more discussion and probably will not be passed by both houses this session. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) While the prospects for the passage of constitutional reform allowing for the creation of a National Guard at this point look dim, the proposal does highlight an ongoing discussion in Mexico of the long-term role of the military in its domestic fight against drug trafficking. While most political players admit that the Armed Forces at this juncture are the best-equipped to deal with the organized crime problem, there does not appear to be consensus as to their continued, extended role in the struggle. Moreover, the discussion of the creation of a National Guard -- or even the expansion of the military police -- also indicates a continued lack of faith in the country's police forces, as well as for the prospects of meaningful reform. Despite this apparent concern, better equipping the nation's Armed Forces for internal policing is not a substitute for meaningful police reform that looks to not only more effectively and efficiently fight narcotrafficking, but also treat the larger problem of crime, insecurity, and impunity in Mexico. ¶9. (C) Nobody wants the Army to return to the barracks more than the military's senior leadership. The Mexican Armed Forces understand very well, however, that the Mexican police at all levels are simply not fully up to the counterdrug task, that getting them to that level will take time, and that continued military involvement in the interim is necessary. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / BASSETT